KevinCoxItem


Well, it's opening day here ( for us at least ), and we're diggin' the scene, as we positively CRUSHED it here last year, and look to replicate that this spring/summer !!

Hopefully I can make a little sojourn out there and go toe to to with Miss Megan Devine for charity at some point!! ( She's actually done some good things there, is working her tail off, and you may want to check out her paddock analysis in conjunction with my writeups at times. )

Here are my stats for last year's meeting:

Santa Anita Stats(Final ):          87-320 ( $891.00 )  Beatable Favorites:        8-30  ( 26.7% )   Favorite's Win %:108-320 ( 33.8% )

And if you add in 2014 & 2015...

Santa Anita Stats (Final):          51-254 ($392.40)     Beatable Favorites :      10-39 ( 25.6% )    Favorite's Win %: 95-254 ( 37.4% )

Santa Anita Stats(2015 Final):    67-290 ( $462.00 )  Beatable Favorites:        18-39 ( 46.2% )   Favorite's Win %: 141-334 ( 42.2% )

You get:                                  205-864 ( $1745.40) Beatable Favorites:        36-108( 33.3% )   Favorite's Win %: 344-908 ( 37.9% )

That's a flat bet profit and a successful "Beatable Favorites" category here over 864 races....LET'S DO IT !!


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 7 - Golden Light


I want to thank those that read my column, and have recently opened up accounts as a result of their fondness for what they see here. If you have any questions at any time, you can reach me here on Disqus, or on Twitter @brooklyncowboy1. For those who dig the scene here, and would like to be part of it, registration on our home page is easy, and if you'd like, feel free to include my name in the referral box, and let me know, so I can try and get ya' some cool swag!


 

Santa Anita - 4/29 - Opening Day - For us !

 

Race 1 -

1.My Aunt Tillie

2.Starlite Style

3.Tahitian Lagoon

Well here it is, the first Santa Anita race of the year for us, and although it will be a tall order for us to replicate the results from last year, we'll sure give it the ol' Brooklyn College try ! #10 MY AUNT TILLIE added the blinkers in last & was a dead game second at 13-1 in an identical spot 22 days back. 15% barn is 5:2-1-0-1 with runners fitting this criteria at < 6-1 ( 15-29 days ), and ya gotta love horses with an upwards arrow next to the speed figures. #5 STARLITE STYLE has crashed the super in all eight maiden special weight deals over firm turf, and is a sensible ITM player. #3 TAHITIAN LAGOON is another one that is heading in the right direction from a speed figure aspect and is 3rd off the L/O today while routing for the second time.  OFF TURF: 1-3-5-7-2

 

Race 2 -

1.Slasher

2.Uncle Grumpy

3.Loud Stalker

#1 SLASHER went from a 54 to a 58 from the first fast track dirt dash to the next, and Glatt ( 16% day to day ) is 20:6-3-2-3 with mid level dirt sprinters in the 13-27 day bracket, so we'll give this one a tepid nod in an uninspiring close to the traditional early double. #2 UNCLE GRUMPY cuts back off the claim today and has three career wins, while the remaining quartet has five, so that has to account for something, no? #4 LOUD STALKER drops to a career low today, and ya'll better get used to us calling on Tyler Baze in this column, because it's gonna happen a not.

 

Race 3 -

1.Gato Dolce

2.Marchtothemusic

3.Curly Creek

On our first draft of this race we were able to shave this nonnet down to only two, and it turns out that they both have exceptional DRF Formulator stats, so let's get right to 'em. #3 GATO DOLCE may be a sweet cat in his barn, but this descendant of "Candy" Ride and Kelli "Cat" has shown some toughness in his last triad, duking it out at some point during the race, while crashing the triple in each start. Trainer who wins at a 16% clip is a juicy 4 for 10 with locally based maiden claiming sprinters on the sand ( ITM 15-31 days back ) & has a $3.63 ROI in that regards. #5 MARCHTOTHEMUSIC has noticeably regressed from a numbers aspect since starting things out last year, and The Master is 16:5-2-2 with runners of this ilk who hit the board 18-36 days ago. Triple Crown nominee ( really? ) gets in light. #2 CURLY CREEK has a couple of crisp morning moves for today's overture, and what's most important is that they're both from the starting apparatus.

 

Race 4 -

1.Scandal

2.Goseecal

3.Line

#6 SCANDAL missed by just a sliver in last, but that's par for the course with this one, as she's set money ablaze with 8 of the 9 losses occurring at odds of less than 4-1 ( five of them as the favorite ). That being said, it's hard to argue with the speed figures earned, and 19% shotcaller is 12:3-4-2 with maiden special weight turf routers who hit the board here 23-47 days ago ( $9, $4 & $25 ). #3 GOSEECAL has the hood removed today, and Cerin is 3 for 7 when doing such to horses that have already run ( < 50 days ), and is 1 for 1 with a subcategory of routers. #8 LINE is a turf sprinter stretching out for the first time today ( an angle we love ) and is extremely well bred for this trip ( 375/395 Tommies ).  OFF TURF: 11-3-1-7-13(AE)

 

Race 5 -

1.Bronze Age

2.Colonist

3.Lifeline

#5 BRONZE AGE had a race to forget at Sunland, when stumbling at the onset before being eased late in the game. The good news tho, is that Bob Baffert's Baked Beans is 3-7 with S.A. allowance dirt stayers returning off 23-45 day absences. Pilot from the maiden breaker returns today. #2 COLONIST improved by about 10% from the first start to the second, and that was his first time attempting two turns, which makes it even more impressive. Second half of the uncoupled Hollendorfer entry looks like a good one, and we wouldn't be surprised to see this one in some of the 3YO stakes later in the year. #3 LIFELINE is attempting to show some versatility today in switching over to the brown stuff for the first time, and breeding says that shouldn't be an issue here. 

 

Race 6 -

1.Unbridled Rocket

2.Spanish Eyes

3.Ebony Gold

#7 UNBRIDLED ROCKET hung up a career best number when finishing 2nd in a nearly identical spot about a month ago, and was well clear of the show horse that day. Anything relatively close to that effort demolishes these. #4 SPANISH EYES was in the rear with he gear last time out, but let's not judge too harshly, as that was his first try against winners, and ended up in the very capable hands of Hollendorfer upon unsaddling. Bug assigned has apparently struck gold, as the Hall of Fame conditioner has taken a shine to him, and we're expecting a much better effort today. #1 EBONY GOLD always goes off at big balloons, but the last race speed figure is comparable to the remaining entrants. 

 

Race 7 -

1.Bolo

2.Twentytwentyvision

3.Mithqaal

#3 BOLO ( "BOLO!!!" ) will probably never be heading east of the Mississippi again, as after the Keeneland debacle he has now finished 9th, 10th, 9th & 12th when coming out towards me. Back in familiar surroundings today, and Carla gains some bread with locally based graded turf stayers at < 5-1 ( 30 days or less ) as she's 3 for 7 with that kinda stock ( $7, $3 & $9 ). Smith had options here and he eschews the bigger barn to give this hard knocker another shot. #2 TWENTYTWENTYVISION has hit the board in all five times at the trio & 7 of at at Santa Anita, and what the hell's wrong with that? Gelding is 1 for 3 going turf to dirt, and has done his best work with Flava Flave in the irons. #4 MITHQAAL is a bit cheap, but Bejarano was aboard for the last prep and he sticks around today.  OFF TURF: 2-3-6-4-7

 

Race 8 -

1.Absolutely Stylish

2.Honor and Courage

3.Cats Blame

Although his debut left a lot to be desired, the trainer of the #10 is ABSOLUTELY STYLISH when it comes to his second time starters returning from sabbaticals of 50 days or more. He's a sensational 4 for 6 in that area, with the victors coming back $5, $59, $14 & $13 ( the first two of those were 120+ days ! ). The winner that day was none other than Mastery, who probably would've been a solid favorite for the Derby had he not gotten injured. #2 HONOR AND COURAGE posted back to back solid efforts over 2 1/2 months ago, but was then sent to the shelf for one reason or another, but that's ai'ight, as this trainer is ( from limited data ) 2-2 with maiden special weight dirt routers in the 5-11 day zip code @ 5-1 or less. Gets in with a feather, too. #6 CATS BLAME may improve second off the L/O wile going long for the second time.

 

Race 9 -

1.Smuggler Union

2.It's the Ice ( GB )

3.Crown the Kitten

#9 SMUGGLER UNION procured the diploma in a down the hill event a month & a half ago, and although he's stretching out to 2X today, the prior turf outing way back when was going long, and it resulted in a dead game placing in front of a next out winner. Would need to step up his game a bit, but sheds four pounds while picking up a much better rider; barn won with their only other maiden breaking turf router ( < 80-1 ) with a payoff of 11 clams. #1 IT'S THE ICE (GB) has gone 74-77-82-85-84(when moved up via DQ) in all his turf routes, and I sincerely doubt you'll be getting 12-1 here, especially with two early scratches as of this writing. #11 CROWN THE KITTEN drops a bit & is 10:3-3-1 at the dist.; that's reason enough to chunk in.  OFF TURF: 4-9-11-12-10

 


Gulfstream        ( Final ):       194-958 ( $1,801.00 ) Beatable Favorites    22-87 ( 25.3% ) Favorites Win %  344-958  ( 35.9% )

Santa Anita        ( Final ):            1-11   ( $4.40 )    Beatable Favorites      0-0   ( 0.0% )    Favorites Win %    4-11     ( 36.4% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2014-2016 Final ): 40-247   ( $372.40 ) Beatable Favorites: 15-41 ( 36.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 85-247  ( 34.4% )  +/-: -24.6% against a 17.0% takeout                              


Poly Tracks 2014-6 (All Final): 85-566     ( $819.20 ) Beatable Favorites : 15-68   ( 22.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 162 -585  ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2014-6 (All Final):1410-6333 ($11,133.30)Beatable Favorites : 202-720( 28.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 2334-6417( 36.4% ) +/-: -12.1%  against a 16.6% takeout


Cumulative Stats (All Final): 1495-6941 ($11,952.50)Beatable Favorites : 195-701( 27.8% ) Favorite's Win %: 2496-7002 ( 35.7% ) +/-: -13.5% against a 16.8% takeout


 CoxSA2017