KevinCoxItem


Opening Day here, and if you're at the track be sure to look me up ! If not, I will be on T.V. doing the pre-card show before the first race each day, and you can see it on Saratoga Bets about an hour before the first race.

Hope to see y'all, as we enter on the heels of giving out a $106,000 Pk. 5 here on Saratoga's closing day !! ( $2 Bet )


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 1 - #12 Sugar Cube


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Kentucky Downs - 9/6 - Opening Day

 

Race 1 -

1.Madaket Millie

2.Leeloo's Journey

3.Spontaneity

Sixteen horses to analyze in the meet's opener? Well, we're seeing it as easy as 1-2-3 ! #1 MADAKET MILLIE slides in a whopping nine slots, ( thereby earning a juicy adjusted speed figure of 74.8 in the last ) and is a jazzy 3 for 6 at the distance ( 0-23 at other trips ). Mare has hit the board in five straight on the lawn since being transferred over to this barn, and should be right there once again. #2 LEELOO'S JOURNEY is another who's in receipt of a more advantageous draw today and has done some good things beneath Hisby in the past. #3 SPONTANEITY has put forth two strong efforts in the initial two turf outings and should rebound after the recent dirt flop.   BEATABLE FAVORITE: #12 SUGAR CUBE doesn't make our first cut, so why would we accept 5-2 favoritism?

 

Race 2 -

1.Lenamarie

2.Casatoria

3.Jukebox Money

#6 LENAMARIE was purchased at auction for nearly 17 times the stud fee, and sire had a win and a second in two poly attempts, and sometimes that can translate nicely to the turf. Kenneally is 11:3-3-0 with 2YO FTS'ers going one turn on the turf at this level ( $14, $53 & $10 ) and we'll give gal a tepid nod. #5 CASATORIA is cheaply bred but has hit the board in three of four, with two of those being on the lawn. #10 JUKEBOX MONEY is better bred for the turf than the dirt, and the dirt debut wasn't half bad. Filly gets the miracle drug today, and is eligible to step forward. 

 

Race 3 -

1.Major Munnings

2.Galton

3.Above the Bar

#4 MAJOR MUNNINGS has went coast to coast like butter and toast in both forays to date, and we see no palpable reason whatsoever to take a stand against today. #5 GALTON has a win & a third from as many starts here at Franklin, has that type of 'declining' record that we like to see ( 34:10-8-6 ), and has been a part of the super in 21 of 22. Only start at this dx. was a successful one, and could be a viable alternative to the above, should M.M. not take to this undulating course. #1 ABOVE THE BAR is 3:1-0-2 when breaking from the pine and is 5:2-0-1 in "3rd of the L/O" deals. Addition of five pounds not an issue, as he's 3:2-1-0 at this impost or higher.  NOTE: AS OF 7:41 P.M. CST TUESDAY, DUE TO AN EARLY SCRATCH THE #3 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race 4 -

1.Mongol G

2.Bingo Kitten ( AE )

3.Kitten's Gold

#6 MONGOL G has gone 62-73-77-80 in his four starts to date, and what makes that even more impressive is that every start occurred at a level higher than the prior outing. An extra example of not really knowing where this one's ceiling is, is the fact that the dirt numbers have also ascended ( 25-50-82 ), so this is an animal who's really figuring it all out while possessing plenty of upside. Barn is 3 for 5 when going poly to turf with those who hit the board in last & are < 9-1 today ( $20, $12 & $14 ). Factor in the perfect 2 for 2 mark at the dist., as well as the speed, and you have the makings of a solid play. #15 BINGO KITTEN (AE) needs a couple of numbers ( preferably three lower than his ) to be called out in order to get in. Should that occur, then he enters with back to back jacks, as well as a preference for this distance of ground ( 3 for 6, compared to being 1 for 15 otherwise ). #2 KITTEN'S GOLD is another speedy sort with few faults.  NOTE: AS OF 7:43 CST TUESDAY, DUE TO AN EARLY SCRATCH THE #4 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race 5 -

1.Pauline Revere

2.On My Toes

3.Wolf Gourmet

#4 PAULINE REVERE has been very consistent since being switched to the sod back in May, never missing the super while posting a steady stream of Beyers. Trainer is a scintillating 9 for 18 with allowance turf stayers who crashed the party 21-43 days back at odds of less than 7-1 & has a whopping 7 for 13 in that regards. Good guy Brian takes over today and we like the tactical speed employed by this one. #3 ON MY TOES disappointed up at the Spa recently, but the number earned that day is still comparable to most signed on here. Santana had a nice Saratoga stand. #6 WOLF GOURMET is a nibbler by rote, but has climbed right up the Beyer ladder over his last octet & is extremely logical in this spot.

 

Race 6 -

1.My Impression

2.Zipessa

3.Rattataptap

#4 MY IMPRESSION has nice back class and is 4 for 8 at this particular trip ( 1 for 6 at other distances ). No Lady Eli's in this bunch. #12 ZIPESSA is another getting a bit of relief today and appears to be the clear speed of this deal. Leparoux didn't have the best of Saratoga meets & looks to turn things around down here. #8 RATTATAPTAP spit the bit rather readily up at Woodbine with no tangible excuse, but if you can see your way clear past that poly flop, then there might be some value here given the prior turf #.  NOTE: AS OF 7:44 P.M. CST TUESDAY, DUE TO AN EARLY SCRATCH THE #2 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race 7 -

1.Delaphene ( AE )

2.Emmport ( AE )

3.Best Performance

#14 DELAPHENE (AE) needs a little luck to make it into the starting gate today,  but gal more than doubled her debut number when switching to the gramma & adding Lasix at Arlington Heights in mid July, and two runners from that heat have since returned to win, with several having improved their next out Beyers. Quite often horses who burst through after undergoing an equipment or medication change can regress in next, but as this one would be a solid offering, we'll swing away. #16 EMMPORT (AE) is another waiting patiently for scratch time, but the debut was snappy and breeding suggests it was no fluke. Shotcaller is 3 fer 4 w/second time starters on the turf who hit the board in last. The only issue we have is this one being a May bred facing some younger foes, but we can't dismiss. #3 BEST PERFORMANCE is just as well bred for the turf as the sand, and the efforts over the sand were quite good ( and at higher class levels ). 100% playable.  NOTE: AS OF 7:45 P.M. CST TUESDAY, DUE TO TWO EARLY SCRATCHES THE #'s 6 AND 9 WILL BE OUR SECOND AND 3RD CHOICES RESPECTIVELY.

 

Race 8 -

1.Hootenanny

2.Western Reserve

3.Irish Strait

#1 HOOTENANNY is 4:3-0-1 when breaking from posts 1-3 and 9:0-2-0 from the 4 hole on out ( from posts shown ), which tells us that this one has little issue with running while covered up--a good trait to have on a European style course such as this. 2 for 4 mark at the trip stands out a bit, and this one takes a bit of a drop today. #5 WESTERN RESERVE has solid figs, an affinity for this trip, and won first off the claim for a barn who has had but 14 starts over the last five years. Sensible. #8 IRISH STRAIGHT has a triad of triple digit Beyer figs staring at ya, but will be overbet because of them. Using, but leaving beneath.

 

Race 9 -

1.Snapper Sinclair

2.Bantu

3.Mr Ashley

#9 SNAPPER SINCLAIR ( obviously a goof on the gasoline mascot 'Sinclair', who was a turtle ) was anything but tortoise-like when getting the job done in impressive fashion when being switched over to the turf for the first time at Saratoga 19 days ago, and we like that he gets a bit off the rail today for first try in stakes company. 20% Bossman is a poyfect 3 for 3 with turf sprinters who got the diploma 13-25 days ago & are beneath the 7-1 water mark. #3 BANTU is another who improved from the first start to the second when procuring the sheepskin at the Pea Patch on my father's birthday, and with Storm Cat coursing through his veins, today's extra panel should be of no concern. #5 MR ASHLEY will be a zillion to one, but we like tossing in horses such as these who have done little wrong, but get overlooked because of 'cheapness'. 

 

Race 10 -

1.American Sea

2.Hour City

3.Iconic

#8 AMERICAN SEA has gone 60-64-67-67 in her quartet of turf starts thus far, so right off the bat, who knows where her ceiling can be. Lopresti know a thing or two about stretching them out, and we'll be more than happy to take Brian at double digit odds. #2 HOUR CITY appears to be that type to plod/grind along for a piece, so the "unders" seem to be an ideal spot for this colt. #1 ICONIC is but a "Z" shy of being a fan favorite, but let's not mention "Z's" around this guy as he has a tendency to break a little slowly. That being said, the numbers earned are okay and Robby sees fit to ride again. 

 


Saratoga           ( Final ):          68-406 ( $651.00 )    Beatable Favorites    8-40 ( 20.0% )    Favorites Win %   135-406 ( 33.3% )

Los Alamitos      ( Final ):          19-67  ( $123.60 )    Beatable Favorites    2-7   ( 28.6% )    Favorites Win %    28-67   ( 41.8% )

Santa Anita       ( Final ):         67-319 ( $464.80 )    Beatable Favorites    8-33  ( 24.2% )   Favorites Win %  120-319 ( 37.6% )

Belmont            ( Final ):          1-13   ( $11.60 )      Beatable Favorites    0-0    ( N/A )       Favorites Win %   5-13     ( 38.5% )

Pimlico              ( Final ):          1-14   ( $20.00 )      Beatable Favorites    1-2    ( 50,0% )   Favorites Win %   5-14     ( 35.7% )

Churchill Downs ( Final ):          0-1     ( $0.00 )       Beatable Favorites    0-1     ( 0.0% )    Favorites Win %   0-1       ( 0.0% )

Keeneland         ( Final ):        31-141 ( $276.60 )    Beatable Favorites    5-13   ( 38.5% )  Favorites Win %  58-141   ( 41.1% )

Gulfstream        ( Final ):       194-958 ( $1,801.00 ) Beatable Favorites    22-87 ( 25.3% )  Favorites Win %  344-958  ( 35.9% )

Santa Anita        ( Final ):            1-11   ( $4.40 )     Beatable Favorites      0-0   ( N/A )     Favorites Win %    4-11     ( 36.4% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2014-2017 Final ): 42-275   ( $404.00 ) Beatable Favorites: 16-44 ( 36.4% ) Favorite's Win %: 95-275  ( 34.6% )  +/-: -26.5% against a 17.1% takeout                              


Poly Tracks 2014-6 (All Final): 85-566      ( $819.20 )   Beatable Favorites : 15-68   ( 22.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 162 -585   ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks   2014-7 (All Final):1597-7294 ($12,679.30)Beatable Favorites : 226-816( 27.7% ) Favorite's Win %: 2685-7378( 36.4% ) +/-: -13.1%  against a 16.7% takeout


Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 1682-7860 ($13,498.50)Beatable Favorites : 233-843( 27.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 2712-7557 ( 35.9% ) +/-: -14.1% against a 16.6% takeout


 CoxLA2017