KevinCoxItem


Kind of a blase' day for us here yesterday, as we went a chalky 10:2-2-1 on the afternoon.

Aside from that, the paddock show went quite well, despite a very nice man coming to me mid analysis to tell me he wanted his table back !!

I felt like Oscar Madison when Felix sells out all the furniture from right beneath him !

On with today...


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


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Kentucky Downs - 9/7

 

Race 1 -

1.Ettalusive

2.Front Row Debbie ( AE )

3.Iron Lilly

Starting out today's column from 30,000 feet, as we have to squeeze in every window of opportunity to write with two tracks to cover over the next twelve days !  #8 ETTALUSIVE is that kinda horse that yo' pappa told you to stay away from. You know the type--that nibbling, check earning sort of maiden. That being said, this one is up for sale for the first time today, and exits a heat where two next out runners won and finished third in said starts. From a small sampling, barn is 2 for 5 with two turn maiden claiming turf stock off breaks of 19-39 days ( > 2.25-1 & < 6.75-1 ) with the winners coming back $10 & $9. #14 FRONT ROW DEBBIE (AE) needs some assistance in order to make it over to the races today, but should that be the case, brings in tow six placings from nine turf outings. We've always liked longshots like the #5 IRON LILLY--maiden dirt dashers stretching out on the lawn for the first time. Sometimes they can get brave if able to relax on an uncontested lead. There's some decent turf breeding here, and you may want to put this into some of your rolling action.  NOTE: AS OF 8:47 P.M. CST, DUE TO AN EARLY SCRATCH, THE #9 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race 2 -

1.Political Justice

2.Handsome Jack

3.Curlino

Impossible race for us to try and decipher, so be careful here... #7 POLITICAL JUSTICE has essentially gone wire to wire in his last triad, and although the turf numbers on the ledger are a bit light, we always lean towards the successful speedy type in tough heats, and we owe McMahon a big High Five ( or maybe a low five ! ) for helping us with our $53,000 hit that may have been $3,000 without him hustling hard for second ( before getting moved up via DQ ). Mild edge. #4 HANDSOME JACK is 2 for 6 on the turf ( 3 for 15 otherwise ) and cuts back from two turns to one for the first time ( sans layoffs) #12 CURLINO is steady, has some nice tactical speed, and was recently snagged off a winning effort by the As-Man. Logical.  NOTE: AS OF 8:48 P.M. CST, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #6 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race 3 -

1.Pocket Book 

2.Jacktastic (AE )

3.Dreaming of J C

#7 POCKET BOOK gave up the ghost rather readily up at the Spa on 8/14, but in all fairness the splits were extremely fast that day. From a small sampling, W.W. is 2 for 4 with loclly based maiden special weight turf dashers who finished out of the money less than 47 days ago ( >1.50-1 & < 4.50-1 ) with the winners coming back $6 & $8. Ortiz fresh off the heels of a Saratoga riding title. #16 JACKTASTIC (AE) is on the outside looking in, but has Cozzene in the bloodlines & goes from inside to outside. #10 DREAMING OF J C fired off a sizzling 47 flat bullet at Lexington a week ago, and as Leroidesaminaux is in the family tree, this one deserves some respect for the Cat Man.  NOTE: AS OF 8:49 P.M. CST, DUE TO TWO LATE SCRATCHES OUR SECOND AND THIRD CHOICES WILL BE THE #1 AND #13 RESPECTIVELY.

 

Race 4 -

1.Never Grow Old

2.American Cowgirl

3.Iwishitwouldrain

There are a couple of solid DRF Formulator stats in play here, so let's get right to 'em.  #9 NEVER GROW OLD: Over the last 1,826 days, Ward is 6:4-0-1 w/3rd off the L/O allowance turf stayers at odds of 10-1 or less, with the winners coming back $15, $9, $13 & $4. #7 AMERICAN COWGIRL ( dig it ) will be led over by Buff, and he is just that with runners of this caliber off breaks of 22-44 days as he more than doubles his 11% win rate ( 15:4-3-3 ) at odds in the 3-1/9-1 range ( $13, $12, $16 & $8 ). #2 IWISHITWOULDRAIN ( a name that may have track officials cringe when hearing announcer John Lies calling it down here ) rounds out the top three. 

 

Race 5 -

1.Starcatter

2.Elkhorn Poet ( AE )

3.Over Thinking ( AE )

#11 STARCATTER showed a little bit of early hoof in the career starter, and goes from an apprentice to a journeyman today -- a favorite angle of ours. Gio Ponti of course, was one of the greatest turfers of all time, and we'll swing away at a big number here. #15 ELKHORN POET (AE) switches surfaces after displaying a bit of zip in the overture and could have a presence in the primary stages if able to make it over to the races. #13 OVER THINKING (AE) showed zilch in the debut, but posted his best ever workout after that race, and sometimes these babies can improve very rapidly.  NOTE: AS OF 8:50 P.M. CST, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #8 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race 6 -

1.Frozen Hannah

2.Sensitive

3.Now Power ( AE )

Just your standard, $145,000 optional claimer here...Lawdy.  #12 FROEN HANNAH: M-Squared is 8:5-1-1 with new acquisitions in optional (2X) turf routes who made the tri 26-52 days ago ( $4.30+ ROI ). #8 SENSITIVE: Cox is 13:6-2-2 with 3rd off the shelf runners of this ilk  below the 10-1 water mark ( $3.03 ROI ). #15 NOW POWER (AE): LYNCH is 4-9 w/ this kind off 13-37 day breaks at odds >1.75-1 & < 5.25-1 ( $11, $9, $6 & $8 ).  NOTE: AS OF 8:51 P.M., DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #2 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race 7 -

1.Lake Geneva ( AE )

2.Passion Plus ( AE )

3.American Frolic

#16 LAKE GENEVA (AE) needs a few to get the sniffles in order to make it into the body of the race today, but should that come to fruition, she brings in tow a big last race number when finishing a clear second at Laurel on 8/11. Beware of the possible bounce however, as the fig earned in the initial turf foray was double that of the prior dirt outing. #15 PASSION PLUS (AE) is another who may have to watch the other kiddies playing stickball through the window today, but if she can catch a break and get in, has a couple of nice works backing her up as well as okay pedigree. #3 AMERICAN FROLIC recently finished second in a race where five runners have come back to amass a cumulative mark of 5:2-1-1, with the average Beyer figure remaining just about the same as the prior start.  NOTE: AS OF 8:52 P.M. CST, DUE TO TWO LATE SCRATCHES, THE #12 & #9 WILL BE OUR SECOND & THIRD CHOICES RESPECTIVELY.

 

Race 8 -

1.Gilded Lily

2.Excessivespending

3.Width ( AE ) 

#7 GILDED LILY was in the rear with the gear when last seen north of the border, but something may have went amiss that afternoon, as the Beyer trajectory was definitely heading in the right direction ( 64-68-72 ). Don't let the layof be too much of a concern, as 21% clan is 3 fer 7 when putting their runners on the gramma for the first time off sabbaticals of 93-186 days ( $11, $13 & $29 ). #4 EXCESSIVESPENDING put up a career best number when being switched to the sod for the first time, but she outran her turfing bloodlines that day, so be cautious. #13 WIDTH (AE) rounds out the top three.  NOTE: AS OF 8:53 P.M. CST, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #1 WILL BE OUR 3RD CHOICE.

 

Race 9 -

1.Oscar Nominated

2.Thatcher Street

3.Chocolate Ride

Today's featured race is named after Old Friends, the wonderful horse retirement organization, of which I was the first donor many years ago. I am currently on the board of Old Friends at Cabin Creek and wholeheartedly encourage ya'll to make a donation there https://oldfriendsatcabincreek.com/  or even the smaller version of Old Friends they have right here !!  Mike Maker is an incredible 21 for 48 ( 90% ITM ) with ungraded two turn turf runners off 17-35 day breaks at odds between even money & 3-1 ( $2.52 ROI ). Down the lane for #9 OSCAR NOMINATED. #12 THATCHER STREET has hit the board in 15 of 20 turf forays, including both sojourns here at Franklin. Consistent sort should grab a share. #11 CHOCOLATE RIDE has speed & owns a lovely "declining" record at the trip ( 9:4-2-1 ); 5 for 8 with Florent. NOTE: AS OF 8:54 P.M. CST, DUE TO A KEY LATE SCRATCH WE HAVE REVAMPED OUR SELECTIONS TO 1-12-11.

 

Race 10 -

1.Double Cast ( AE )

2.Sapphire Jubilee

3.Meister Legend

So it's our first night in Kentucky, we had the emotional roller coaster of our big win on Monday, traveled Tuesday on little sleep, and went to the Mexican joint  for dinner tonight. As we're leaving, C.J. Johnsen ( pretty much runs things down here ) says "Kevin, take it easy on the writeup tonight--get some rest." Now, I would be remiss if I didn't tell you that there are different energy levels from time to time...we're only human, you know. As a matter of fact, the big hit the other day came sans Formulator stats, as our computer was locking up ( sometimes it's good to occasionally go to your basic handicapping roots ). Well, we would have none of it tonight. Right now it's 5:29 A.M. ( 6:29 EST ), and we haven't stopped since 10:45. What's our reward? We actually found a sublime Leo O'Brien stat with the #15 DOUBLE CAST (AE) in the finale. 5% trainer ( who we got a great photograph of the other day, along with his wife ) is a bizarre 4 for 5 with maiden special weight turf routers ( 3 for 3 in routes ! ) off absences of < 23 days ( 8-1 or less ). The winners came back $7, $13, $13 & $13, and it's no wonder he shipped down here ( if in fact the horse came ). Unfortunately, she's on the outside looking in, and would need a triad of defections to come on over here. Would be a shame if it doesn't come to bear, as she's in peak form, and barn is better than their normative stats when adding the hood. #4 SAPPHIRE JUBILEE lost by just 3 1/2 first time out, but is another getting eye cups today, and this outfit is 4 for 7 when affixing them to their second time starters under conditions such as this ( < 24-1 ) with mutuels of $7, $6, $7 & $22. #11 MEISTER LEGEND sends us off to sleep....Zzzzzzzz......  NOTE: AS OF 8:56 P.M. CST, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #10 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

  

Kentucky Downs ( Current ):       2-10   ( $10.00 )      Beatable Favorites    0-1   ( 0.0 % )     Favorites Win %     2-10   ( 20.0% )


Saratoga           ( Final ):          68-406 ( $651.00 )    Beatable Favorites    8-40 ( 20.0% )    Favorites Win %   135-406 ( 33.3% )

Los Alamitos      ( Final ):          19-67  ( $123.60 )    Beatable Favorites    2-7   ( 28.6% )    Favorites Win %    28-67   ( 41.8% )

Santa Anita       ( Final ):         67-319 ( $464.80 )    Beatable Favorites    8-33  ( 24.2% )   Favorites Win %  120-319 ( 37.6% )

Belmont            ( Final ):          1-13   ( $11.60 )      Beatable Favorites    0-0    ( N/A )       Favorites Win %   5-13     ( 38.5% )

Pimlico              ( Final ):          1-14   ( $20.00 )      Beatable Favorites    1-2    ( 50,0% )   Favorites Win %   5-14     ( 35.7% )

Churchill Downs ( Final ):          0-1     ( $0.00 )       Beatable Favorites    0-1     ( 0.0% )    Favorites Win %   0-1       ( 0.0% )

Keeneland         ( Final ):        31-141 ( $276.60 )    Beatable Favorites    5-13   ( 38.5% )  Favorites Win %  58-141   ( 41.1% )

Gulfstream        ( Final ):       194-958 ( $1,801.00 ) Beatable Favorites    22-87 ( 25.3% )  Favorites Win %  344-958  ( 35.9% )

Santa Anita        ( Final ):            1-11   ( $4.40 )     Beatable Favorites      0-0   ( N/A )     Favorites Win %    4-11     ( 36.4% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2014-2017 Final ): 42-275   ( $404.00 ) Beatable Favorites: 16-44 ( 36.4% ) Favorite's Win %: 95-275  ( 34.6% )  +/-: -26.5% against a 17.1% takeout                              


Poly Tracks 2014-6 (All Final): 85-566      ( $819.20 )   Beatable Favorites : 15-68   ( 22.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 162 -585   ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks   2014-7 (All Final):1597-7294 ($12,679.30)Beatable Favorites : 226-816( 27.7% ) Favorite's Win %: 2685-7378( 36.4% ) +/-: -13.1%  against a 16.7% takeout


Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 1682-7860 ($13,498.50)Beatable Favorites : 233-843( 27.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 2712-7557 ( 35.9% ) +/-: -14.1% against a 16.6% takeout


 CoxLA2017