KevinCoxItem


Proud to announce I'll once again be donating 5X my Belmont AND Kentucky Downs winnings on Sat to @AAEPHorseDocs https://aaep.org/ to aid w/hurricane relief. This organization helps rescue and care for horses during & after the hurricane. We've already gotten one matching donation from Corey Johnsen, President of Kentucky Downs!! How 'bout y'all chip in !! ( Note: We donated & raised over $1,000 for the Red Cross after Harvey ! ) 


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


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Kentucky Downs - 9/9

 

Race 1 -

1.Starving Artist

2.American Halo

3.Charcuterie

#12 STARVING ARTIST outran her odds when finishing 4th in the career opener at the Pea Patch three weeks ago, and followed that up with a crisp 48 2/5th's breeze on 8/31. Miss was bought at auction for five times the stud fee, so obviously she's well meant, and we'll give her a mild nod in a wide open opener. #4 AMERICAN HALO has gotten better with each and every start to date, and Leparoux ( who dominated here on Thursday ) grabs the reins. Note that the 3rd place finisher from the most recent, came back to get the job done in next. #7 CHARCUTERIE has already earned some good bread for her original connections, as this $5,000 bred animal went for 155 large a bit over a year ago at Ocala. Time for her to put some meat on the plate for new owners tho, and her last move ( 48 flat ) shows that she can cut the mustard a little bit. War Front up top helps matters a bit.

 

Race 2 -

1.Bold Prophet

2.Sharm El Sheikh

3.Zorzor ( AE )

#9 BOLD PROPHET hasn't been seen since a week before turkey time, but morning moves say this one is ready, and turf breeding is actually slightly better than the dirt pedigree, over which he's performed quite admirably. Oh yeah---Leparoux. #12 SHARM EL SHEIKH has a nice overall body of work, loses the hood, and second best effort came in a 3rd off the layoff try. Place horse from last came back to get his Polaroid taken next time out. #13 ZORZOR needs one to get out in order to get in, but should that be the case, brings in tow some solid Beyers along with a switch from an apprentice to a journeyman. NOTE: AS OF 1:48 CST, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #7 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race 3 -

1.Bird's Eye View

2.Richmond Street

3.Perfect Parrtner

#7 BIRD'S EYE VIEW is graded stakes placed, owns some nice figs, and has been gelded since the last. Slight edge. #4 RICHMOND STREET is another with a nice collection of #'s and Lezcano comes here off a Saratoga meet where he did extremely well on the lawn ( and at some big prices, too ). #2 PERFECT PARTNER has done extremely well on the dirt so far, and if you were ever going to experiment to see if a Kentucky bred will like the lawn, this is the meet to do it, with a $140,000 A1X race here. 

 

Race 4 -

1.Graceland

2.Magna G Force

3.Liberty Lady

In this tough 4th race, I'm going to #4 GRACELAND. Bay filly returned off the 3 1/2+ month layoff to finish a robust second against similar type at Indiana Downs, and followed that up with a duet of nice morning moves at Keeneland ( one on the poly and the other over the main track ). Sophie is very much an underrated jockey ( better than her 8% win rate belies ) and if this horse can get it done, then Miss Doyle will find a way. #5 MAGNA G FORCE ( I remember watching a pretty cool cartoon called "G Force" when I was a kid, quite advanced for it's time ) tries the turf for the first time today, but the bloodlines ain't half bad for it ( a City Zip won here the other day ) and there are few stand outs to get in this one's way. #1 LIBERTY LADY showed zilch in the overture, but adds the hood today and may perk up. 

 

Race 5 -

1.Patrick's Day

2.Mutazen

3.High Noon Rider

#4 PATRICK'S DAY finished an okay 3rd in the Ellis Park slop, but that's not really his thing, as it's the green he digs the most ( fittingly ). 2 for 5 mark at this trip compares favorably to the 2-13 record at other distances, and this one rates a tepid nod. #8 MUTAZEN has slowly but surely improved since arriving in the States in 2016 and should be in the thick of things once again. #2 HIGH NOON RIDER was snagged by Cox during opening week at Saratoga, then was instantly placed on the shelf for a bit--most likely to wait for this deal. Five year old boasts a 3 for 13 mark going this distance, and that stands out a bit compared to his ledger at other dx.'s of ground ( 1-11 ). Geroux takes the call. 

 

Race 6 -

1.Tam Tam Attack

2.Dark Arden

3.Keep Talking

#4 TAM TAM ATTACK went coast to coast like butter and toast to grab the sheepskin at CD at the end of June, and the sublime turf breeding says that this one will like the gramma even more. Place horse from that day came back to get the job done next time out, and 'Tam has fired off a couple of crisp works in preparation for this. Just by looking at the P.P.'s of the #6 DARK ARDEN HERE, you can see that he's figuring things out quick fast. Recent second place finish on the Ellis turf produced a lifetime best number ( in just his 2nd grass start ), and veteran Pedroza grabs the reins today. #1 KEEP TALKING had a troubled third in an off the turf event at Monmouth on August the 5th, and despite some decent efforts, Proctor called the doctor and...well...let's just say that Keep Talking now talks in a slightly higher pitch.  NOTE: AS OF 11:27 CST, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #10 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race 7 -

1.Zipessa

2.Susie Bee

3.Beauly ( GB )

Grade 3 Ladies turf on tap here, and we're going to take a hard stand against the heavy favorite here and give this to Zipessa in wire to wire fashion. #7 SUSIE BEE is a bit light from a speed figure aspect, but excels at this trip ( 3 for 8 ), and the show horse in last came back to get the job done when next seen. #1 BEAULY (GB) has a pair of aces and a pair of 4's over her last quartet, and goes for the North American full house today. Switches to Graham today, and he'll be saving all the ground to try and grab at least a healthy share late in the game. 

 

Race 8 -

1.Corby

2.Fair Point

3.Mississippi Delta

With the exception of one point, #3 CORBY has improved over ELEVEN consecutive races, and although she's never gone one turn on the lawn, you have to like the gameness this one has shown along the way. Sure, the "seconditis" is a bit of a concern, but those sizzling, back to back bullets at CDT tells us that they will be send, send, sending today. #2 FAIR POINT disappointed in last ( despite the comment line saying "improved", which is bizarre, as she finished 6th and lost ground in the lane ) but is 9:3-3-0 on the turf, and is eligible to rebound, but demand a fair price. #1 MISSISSIPPI DELTA completes the 3-2-1 blastoff triple based on the back class, the win over the track, and the poyfect 2-2 mark at the dx. 

 

Race 9 -

1.Commend 

2.Wyeth 

3.Crewman

#1 COMMEND has won 2 of 3, owns six exacta finishes from nine outings over the blades, and scored the only time when breaking from the wood. Recent bullet breeze up at Saratoga a good sign for one who likes to come from a bit off the pace. Logical. #6 WYETH goes dirt to turf today & is 3 for 7 over the green stuff. #8 CREWMAN has beaten three home in just as many starts, but has a touch of familiarity with the course and has cashed some minor checks beneath Landeros. 

 

Race 10 -

1.Enterprising 

2.Postulation 

3.Muqtaser

Featured race of the card is the $600,000 Kentucky Turf Cup, and we'll go with the #7 ENTERPRISING, who nearly blew up the tote board in the Arlington Million when losing by less than a length at more than 80-1. Although from a value standpoint we try to stay clear of those with a triple digit Beyer in their last being the only one of the career ( they've never done it before and often get overbet ), I'd rather lean this way than overanalyze everyone else in the bunch. #1 POSTULATION has "drawn off" to win his last two marathons and is hard to knock. #3 MUQTASER, like the above, is another going for the hat trick today, and although he's been facing softer, we'll chunk into the mix.  

 

Belmont Park       ( Current ):      1-9     ( $6.80 )      Beatable Favorites     2-2   ( 100% )    Favorites  Win %      3-9     ( 33.3% )
Kentucky Downs ( Current ):       2-20   ( $10.00 )     Beatable Favorites    0-1   ( 0.0 % )     Favorites Win %     3-20    ( 15.0% )


Saratoga           ( Final ):          68-406 ( $651.00 )    Beatable Favorites    8-40 ( 20.0% )    Favorites Win %   135-406 ( 33.3% )

Los Alamitos      ( Final ):          19-67  ( $123.60 )    Beatable Favorites    2-7   ( 28.6% )    Favorites Win %    28-67   ( 41.8% )

Santa Anita       ( Final ):         67-319 ( $464.80 )    Beatable Favorites    8-33  ( 24.2% )   Favorites Win %  120-319 ( 37.6% )

Belmont            ( Final ):          1-13   ( $11.60 )      Beatable Favorites    0-0    ( N/A )       Favorites Win %   5-13     ( 38.5% )

Pimlico              ( Final ):          1-14   ( $20.00 )      Beatable Favorites    1-2    ( 50,0% )   Favorites Win %   5-14     ( 35.7% )

Churchill Downs ( Final ):          0-1     ( $0.00 )       Beatable Favorites    0-1     ( 0.0% )    Favorites Win %   0-1       ( 0.0% )

Keeneland         ( Final ):        31-141 ( $276.60 )    Beatable Favorites    5-13   ( 38.5% )  Favorites Win %  58-141   ( 41.1% )

Gulfstream        ( Final ):       194-958 ( $1,801.00 ) Beatable Favorites    22-87 ( 25.3% )  Favorites Win %  344-958  ( 35.9% )

Santa Anita        ( Final ):            1-11   ( $4.40 )     Beatable Favorites      0-0   ( N/A )     Favorites Win %    4-11     ( 36.4% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2014-2017 Final ): 42-275   ( $404.00 ) Beatable Favorites: 16-44 ( 36.4% ) Favorite's Win %: 95-275  ( 34.6% )  +/-: -26.5% against a 17.1% takeout                              


Poly Tracks 2014-6 (All Final): 85-566      ( $819.20 )   Beatable Favorites : 15-68   ( 22.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 162 -585   ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks   2014-7 (All Final):1597-7294 ($12,679.30)Beatable Favorites : 226-816( 27.7% ) Favorite's Win %: 2685-7378( 36.4% ) +/-: -13.1%  against a 16.7% takeout


Cumulative Stats   (All Final): 1682-7860 ($13,498.50)Beatable Favorites : 233-843( 27.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 2712-7557 ( 35.9% ) +/-: -14.1% against a 16.6% takeout


 CoxLA2017