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Back on the board yesterday ( albeit a mite snakebit ) with a 10:1-2-3 mark on the afternoon, however...

More importantly, our winners here & at Belmont Park helped to earn a $343 donation from us to the AAEP ( https://aaep.org/ ) who are veterinarians helping to rescue and care for horses during Hurricane Irma. Our donation was matched by Kentucky Downs & partially matched by 60% by someone on Twitter. Never too late to give to a worthwhile cause folks.

Through our winners here, we donated $664 ourselves, and with matching donations, got pretty close to $2,000 !

Thanks to all !


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race #4 - Have at It


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Kentucky Downs - 9/10 - Never forget September 11

 

Race 1 -

1.Mongolian Shopper

2.Angel Choir

3.Northern Screamer

These three and no more for all our rolling action... #9 MONGOLIAN SHOPPER has excellent speed, been in the money in four straight, and 13% clan is a sensational 10:6-2-1 with turf sprinters in the 13-42 day bracket who crashed the tri last time out & are < 8-1 ( non stakes company ). The ROI for that sampling is $4.50+ and of course, we love the draw. #10 ANGEL CHOIR was visually impressive in last when blowing the break before winning in a canter. Been a part of the super in her last four on the turf and figures once again. Like a few other Maker runners the #1 NORTHERN SCREAMER was claimed up at the Spa and held in reserve for this meet. ( Racing office must be tickled about that . ) Runner has been a part of the exacta in 14 of 22 and what the hell's wrong with that? 3 for 6 when breaking from the 1-3 slots, compared to being 4-16 from the 4 hole on out.

 

Race 2 -

1.Key to Quality

2.Honey Don't

3.Tigers Rule

#1 KEY TO QUALITY was a game runner up in the overture ( "Overture, hit the lights, this is it, we've hit the heights !" ), and has worked a bullet since then for McPeek. Barn is a groovy 5 for 12 with second timers under these conditions ( 19-37 days ) with three of the winners coming back 5 clams, and the other two paying $13 & $14. #12 HONEY DONT was all out to get up for 2nd in the debut, and adds blinkers ( actually the trainer adds them ) today after that solid number was earned. #5 TIGERS RULE completes our troika of selections who were jealous bridegrooms in their career starters, and turf breeding says it was no aberration. Logical right back. 

 

Race 3 -

1.Prudence 

2.Conquest Sarahstar ( AE )

3.Fun

#4 PRUDENCE is a fringe player by nature, but lone win was right here at this trip, and Rusty is anything but with his turf dashers off breaks of 138 days or less at odds of > 1.75-1 & < 5.25-1 ( non maidens ) as he's 9:5-1-1 with an ROI of more than $4.00. Calling on Brian once again. #15 CONQUEST SARAHSTAR (AE) needs a little luck to make it over to the races today, but should that come to bear, brings with her a 2:1-0-1 mark off the shelf, and a pre-layoff pilot returning. #3 FUN rounds out the top three.  NOTE: AS OF 9:14 A.M. CST, DUE TO AN EARLY SCRATCH THE #10 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race 4 -

1.Tiz Our Turn

2.Combatant ( AE )

3.Hubbadahubbadaboom

#4 TIZ OUR TURN showed some improved hoof in latest while increasing his Beyer from a 20 to a 36, and although that number is still low, sometimes these babies can improve by leaps and bounds. Sire was 4:1-1-1-1 on the poly ( which can sometimes translate over to the turf nicely ), and Burke got one home here on opening day at a big price. Bombs away ! #16 COMBATANT (AE) is on the outside looking in, but was bought at auction for 320 big ones, & is bred nicely for this deal ( paternal grandsire was a champion on the grass ). #3 HUBBADAHUBBADABOOM has a funny name, but there's nothing funny about the "Z" pattern shown in the primary outing, as this one lost 5 1/2 lengths from the quarter to the top of the stretch, before re-gaining 3 3/4 from that point to the line. Quite often that leads to nice prices, and we'll include this one in all our rollers.  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #12 HAVE AT IT will NOT have at it today if our stats are correct, as C-Squared is a woeful oh-fer 22 with second time starters at this level NOT getting Lasix at odds of 3-2 to 9-2 !!  NOTE: AS OF 9:19 A.M. CST, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #8 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race 5 -

1.Pagliacci

2.Zipp On By

3.Tyler U

We get the feeling that Mott won't be clowning around with #1 PAGLIACCI today, as he's 2 for 5 when cutting back his allowance turf stock off breaks of 28-56 days, and this colt has ample experience from the inside. #12 ZIPP ON BY handled himself quite well when partaking in the surface transition at The Pea Patch on 7/21, finishing second after leading throughout. Should get a near perfect trip today & is a must include. #3 TYLER U exits an uuber key race, where three next out runners won fom as many starts ( with an also ran in one of those heats ). Reunited with Robby today, who was aboard for the honker win two back, and this one has a BIG shot.  NOTE: AS OF 11:30 CST, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #9 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race 6 -

1.Kasuga

2.Inveniam Viam

3.Marquee Cal Gal

#2 KASUGA wire to wire. #6 INVENIAM VIAM ( Latin for "I shall either find a way or make one" ) did just that two starts back when getting out from behind horses to win in aggressive fashion at ElP, but then followed that up with a disappointing 3rd at Louisiana at 3 to 5. Chance to make amends for a share here. #7 MARQUEE CAL GAL has that lovely 27:11-5-3- declining lifetime mark that we like to see, as it shows she knows where the wire is, and has done very good things with my little buddy Gilligan. Logical "unders" playah.  

 

Race 7 -

1.Spring Up

2.Hay Dakota

3.Cammack

#6 SPRING UP has improved over his last septet, won the only time trying this distance, and 20% barn is 3-9 with fresh claims in turf routes who missed the board less than 83 days ago. Switches to Florent today. #3 HAY DAKOTA has won 6 of her last 10, is a sensational 4 for 6 at the dx., and should sit the perfect trip. #2 CAMMACK sure is a fun horse, huh ? Likes the trip, likes the track, and knows where the line is. Not disgraces in losing the Grade 3 up at Arlington Heights in last, and won with Julian in Florida this past winter. 

 

Race 8 -

1.Quebec

2.Gentle Kitten

3.Summer Luck

Dueling Grounds Oaks on tap here, and for those not in the know, Dueling Grounds was the original name of this track. Why? Because they used to have actual duels here many years ago ! For a bit of history on this racetrack, go to this link https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kentucky_Downs .  #7 QUEBEC has gone north from a Beyer standpoint with each and every turf start, culminating with a career best number in a slightly softer spot at Hallandale Beach. Difficult to argue with five straight in the money finishes, and this one can either send or rate. #8 GENTLE KITTEN is another entering off a lifetime best numero and beat a next out winner in last. #3 SUMMER LUCK has gone 83-85 in her first two turf starts ( a third & a second ) and is totally logical with this bunch. 

 

Race 9 -

1.Watch Me Whip

2.Hollow Point

3.Holiday Bonus

Featured race of the afternoon for $350,000 and we're going to make #6 WATCH ME WHIP our play of the meet. Romans charge is most definitely on the upswing, six runners from the Indiana Derby have come back to run, amassing a 6:1-2-1 mark, with an average Beyer improvement of three points. ( Actually, as five of the six improved, if you wanted to remove the high & the low, than the average improvement was 6.2 points. ) Now that being said, let's say this one improves somewhere in the middle. Let's say 4.6 points. Now we have the last start being an adjusted 90.4. That would bring him up to a 95. Being this is his first time on the turf, we take a gander at the Tomlinsons. They're the same. However when we adjust Tomlinsons, we jack up the turf numbers 10% when comparing them to the dirt. That would give this one a 104.5. Is that going to happen? No. But anything that even approaches the mid 90's to the century mark lays over this field. We're in. The #10 HOLLOW POINT is our ONLY exacta saver here, given the solid turf debut, and the fact that we permit TWO tries over a particular surface, and the grass Tommy is juicy. #7 HOLIDAY BONUS is no better or worse than the remaining entrants for the show dough, but is priced higher, so we'll put underneath.   NOTE: AS OF 11:35 CST, DUE TO A DEVASTATING SCRATCH THE #2 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race 10 -

1.Morocco

2.Hear Bout It Later

3.Conquest Gladiator

#5 MOROCCO destroys. #2 HEAR BOUT IT LATER almost blew up the tote board in first try over the blades, and it's not a true "Missed the wedding--don't go to the funeral" deal here, as this one is still 15-1 today. #6 CONQUEST GLADIATOR is second time blinkers today, so may improve off the disappointing effort at Ellis.  NOTE: AS OF 5:36 P.M. CST SATURDAY, DUE TO AN ERROR, THE #1 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Belmont Park       ( Current ):      4-29    ( $73.20 )   Beatable Favorites    2-2   ( 100% )     Favorites  Win %    9-29      ( 31.0% )

Kentucky Downs ( Current ):       6-40   ( $44.20 )    Beatable Favorites    0-2   ( 0.0 % )     Favorites Win %     10-40    ( 25.0% )


Saratoga           ( Final ):          68-406 ( $651.00 )    Beatable Favorites    8-40 ( 20.0% )    Favorites Win %   135-406 ( 33.3% )

Los Alamitos      ( Final ):          19-67  ( $123.60 )    Beatable Favorites    2-7   ( 28.6% )    Favorites Win %    28-67   ( 41.8% )

Santa Anita       ( Final ):         67-319 ( $464.80 )    Beatable Favorites    8-33  ( 24.2% )   Favorites Win %  120-319 ( 37.6% )

Belmont            ( Final ):          1-13   ( $11.60 )      Beatable Favorites    0-0    ( N/A )       Favorites Win %   5-13     ( 38.5% )

Pimlico              ( Final ):          1-14   ( $20.00 )      Beatable Favorites    1-2    ( 50,0% )   Favorites Win %   5-14     ( 35.7% )

Churchill Downs ( Final ):          0-1     ( $0.00 )       Beatable Favorites    0-1     ( 0.0% )    Favorites Win %   0-1       ( 0.0% )

Keeneland         ( Final ):        31-141 ( $276.60 )    Beatable Favorites    5-13   ( 38.5% )  Favorites Win %  58-141   ( 41.1% )

Gulfstream        ( Final ):       194-958 ( $1,801.00 ) Beatable Favorites    22-87 ( 25.3% )  Favorites Win %  344-958  ( 35.9% )

Santa Anita        ( Final ):            1-11   ( $4.40 )     Beatable Favorites      0-0   ( N/A )     Favorites Win %    4-11     ( 36.4% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2014-2017 Final ): 42-275   ( $404.00 ) Beatable Favorites: 16-44 ( 36.4% ) Favorite's Win %: 95-275  ( 34.6% )  +/-: -26.5% against a 17.1% takeout                              


Poly Tracks 2014-6 (All Final): 85-566      ( $819.20 )   Beatable Favorites : 15-68   ( 22.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 162 -585   ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks   2014-7 (All Final):1597-7294 ($12,679.30)Beatable Favorites : 226-816( 27.7% ) Favorite's Win %: 2685-7378( 36.4% ) +/-: -13.1%  against a 16.7% takeout


Cumulative Stats   (All Final): 1682-7860 ($13,498.50)Beatable Favorites : 233-843( 27.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 2712-7557 ( 35.9% ) +/-: -14.1% against a 16.6% takeout


 CoxLA2017