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Not so good on top yesterday, but we did have four rolling doubles of $8, $49, $86 & $21, as well as three rolling Pick Threes of $84, $434 & $142 and a $842 rolling Pick 4 to go with a $1,116 rolling Pick 5.

Just a reminder that if you want today's Grade 1 Starlet & Futurity from Los Alamitos selections and analysis, merely go back one page.  

As it's less than a month away, we will once again be encouraging safe driving on New Year's Eve by donating up to $200 to the Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance ( https://www.thoroughbredaftercare.org/ ) for anyone who shows me a Taxi/Uber/Lyft receipt ( on Twitter or Facebook ) from 8PM-4AM on New Year's Eve !!   The donation will be up to $10 in YOUR name, as we want you all around to read us on New Year's Day !  

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same!


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): AS OF 12:02, THE #7 LADY BERGEN WILL BE A BEATABLE FAVORITE


I want to thank those that read my column, and have recently opened up accounts as a result of their fondness for what they see here. If you have any questions at any time, you can reach me here on Disqus, or on Twitter @brooklyncowboy1. For those who dig the scene here, and would like to be part of it, registration on our home page is easy, and if you'd like, feel free to include my name in the referral box, and let me know, so I can try and get ya' some cool swag!


 

Aqueduct - 12/8

 

Race  1

1.Zecha

2.Ramblin' Ma'am

3.Missbigtimes

#4 ZECHA has been a part of the super in all five starts on a fast strip, and Levine owns a 3-7 ledger with mdclm. dirt stock over this strip who were ITM in last & are 6-1 or lower today ( $6, $10 & $14 ). Slight edge. #10 RAMBLIN' MA'AM has improved with each and every start and was a dead game runner up in a nearly identical spot 38 days back; logical. #2 MISSBIGTIMES has been given a bit of a freshening after the dirt flop, and deserves another shot at her lowest level yet. 

 

Race  2

1.Wilburnmoney

2.My Won Love

3.Archumybaby

#1 WILBURNMONEY has never been spotted this cheaply, and from a limited sampling, barn is 2 for 5 when dropping their locally based mid level dirt stock 50% or greater ( 150 days or less ). Timid selection. #6 MY WON LOVE has done her best work over this oval ( 5 fer 15 ), and soon to be eight year old mare has partaken in the super in 19 of 20. Seems like a perfect "unders" candidate. #3 ARCHUMYBABY ( one half of the uncoupled Baker entry ) is 4:1-2-1 when entered for 20K or less.   NOTE: AS OF 12:02, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #2 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION & THE #7 LADY BERGEN WILL BE OUR BEATABLE FAVORITE.

 

Race  3

1.Sanders Empire

2.Fight On Lucy 

3.Evan's Nice Now

On our first draft of this race we were able to narrow this field of 11 down to 5. Of that quintet, three are backed by decent trainer stats, and believe it or not -- two of them are Edmund Pringle and Pat Kelly stats ! Despite being a mite tardy to the party, #10 SANDERS EMPIRE bested more than half the field at first asking @ 23-1, and although the followup left a lot to be desired, there's been a layoff since, and Lasix is now in the package. That last part is relevant, as 6% barn is 1 for 2 when giving juice to those who have already won ( $15 ) and is also 2 fer 8 with maiden special weight dirt runners at 60-1 or less ( 30 days or undah ( $15 & $5 ). The $15 winner overlaps, and notice that there's been a decent gate breeze since. #3 FIGHT ON LUCY has hit the board in both starts to date, but blinks are part of the package today, and 7% Kelly is 2-5 when doing that to those returning in less than 43 days at 30-1 or lower ( $12 & $44 ). Note that four returnees from the last have gone 1-1-1 in their subsequent starts ( from just two separate events ) w/an average Beyer improvement of 10.7 points. #8 EVAN'S NICE NOW has done well in both dirt tries, but is another getting eye cups affixed today, and 'Miah's a crisp 4 for 7 when doing that to his 3rd off the break dirt stock at 5-1 or less. 

 

Race  4 

1.Scotty Brown

2.Bobby Man

3.Tazmonian Devil

#5 SCOTTY BROWN has yet to finish out of the super while having improved w/each & every start; may be best suited for a fast track. Deserving chalk. #11 BOBBY MAN was an honest enough runner up in the comebacker and is eligible to move forward with that race under his girthstrap, and of course, we dig the draw. #9 TAZMONIAN DEVIL finished 5th of 8 at 116-1 in the bow, and the lone returnee from that afternoon came back to win, upping the Beyer from a 54 to a 76. Could spice things up a bit.

 

Race  5

1.Sower

2.Vertical Oak

3.Dream Pauline

#3 SOWER looked cool when whipping similar in The Pumpkin Pie on October 28th, and Rice is a sublime 11:6-2-1 with locally based ungraded dirt dashers who scored less than 82 days ago and are 6-1 or less today ( positive ROI ). #5 VERTICAL OAK is clearly the class of this deal, and how the hell do we ignore that splendid mark at the dx. ( 16:8-2-4 ) ? Gal is 3:2-1-0 when starting from the outside, and the race goes through her. #1 DREAM PAULINE had a slightly troubled trip down in Kentucky, but faces a smaller field this afternoon & is second off the shelf.  NOTE: AS OF 12:04, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #4 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  6 

1.Blue Belt

2.Bavaro

3.Summer Bourbon

#5 BLUE BELT has a nice overall body of work and owns a win and a second from as many starts when entered for this price. 12% shotcaller is 3-8 with locally based second off the claim dirt stock who missed the baccala in last & are 5-1 or lower today ( $10, $6 & $9 ). #8 BAVARO finds himself at an all time low today and there's enough speed in this one's running lines for him to cause a ruckus here. #1 SUMMER BOURBON was re-claimed by Rudy in the most recent and excels at this trio ( 4 for 14 ).

 

Race  7

1.Miss Mystique

2.Cleo

3.Transaction Tax

#9 MISS MYSTIQUE is out of state bred options, ( due to the two wins in the last three starts ) but appears nicely spotted -- regardless as to whether the turf course is firm or not. Slim margin. #4 CLEO has been freshened up a bit since placing up in Beantown, and we like that she's still protected against the claim. #7 TRANSACTION TAX has only beaten three home in the last quartet, but may carry that speed if able to catch some ground with little give in it.  OFF TURF: 5-6-1-9-2

 

Race  8 

1.Pauseforthecause

2.Our Circle of Love

3.Navajo

#1 PAUSEFORTHECAUSE comes in today off a troika of career best numeros, and owns a 4:2-0-2 ledger at the dx. Three returnees from the most recent try went 3:2-0-0 next time out, improving their speed figs by an average of 2.3 points. Maragh piloted this one to a third place finish in their lone pairing. #7 OUR CIRCLE OF LOVE ended the bout of seconditis with a resounding maiden breaking effort right here three dozen days back and is a majah playah if able to replicate that effort. #8 NAVAJO hasn't been seen in nearly half'a year, but lone win came over this strip and she gets in light. 

 

Race  9 

1.Unsullied

2.Cross Multiply

3.Eddie Boy

After seeing so much of President George H.W. Bush's beautiful dog "Sully" this past week, how do we not go with #14 UNSULLIED in the nitecap? Monikers aside, this one showed improved early hoof when finishing third in this race on 11/17, and drops 80 ounces off that effort. Bug an rate just off the leaders from this outside slot, or employ the killer crossover if able to break on top. #1 CROSS MULTIPLY is a bit of an in and outer, but has hit the board in four of six on the sand and would be no surprise. Employing the "Diamond in the Rough" theory with the #3 EDDIE BOY in today's overture, as there's a nice bullet breeze hidden amidst a bevy of ordinary moves. 407 Tomlinson is pretty high, and although this is the first foal out of an unraced dam, sire First Samurai was 6:4-1-1 going 1X.  



Aqueduct       ( Current )   29-188   ( $290.90 )   Beatable Favorites     7-24  ( 29.2% )  Favorites Win %: 73-190   ( 38.4% )( As of Saturday morning )
 

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Belmont            ( Final )    51-320  ( $381.00 )    Beatable Favorites:   8-22  ( 36.4% )  Favorites Win %:127-320  ( 40.0% )

Saratoga           ( Final )   80-404   ( $865.30 )    Beatable Favorites:   7-40  ( 17.5% )  Favorites Win %: 142-404 ( 35.2% ) 

Belmont             ( Final )  88-499   ( $829.00 )    Beatable Favorites   12-39  ( 30.7% ) Favorites Win %: 170-499 ( 34.1% )

Indiana Grand     ( Final ):  3-8       ( $12.40 )      Beatable Favorites:   N/A                    Favorites Win %: 4-8        ( 40.0% )

Aqueduct Spring ( Final ): 15-138   ( $167.50 )    Beatable Favorites: 6-15  ( 40.0% )    Favorites Win % :61-138   ( 44.2% )

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ): 67-317   ( $493.40 )    Beatable Favorites: 4-17  ( 23.5% )    Favorites Win %: 121-328 ( 36.9% )

Graded Stakes    ( Final ):  12-75     ( $99.50 )    Beatable Favorites: 3-6   ( 50.0% )    Favorites Win %: 32-75     ( 42.7% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2014-2018 Final ): 57-363   ( $494.80 ) Beatable Favorites: 17-52 ( 32.7% ) Favorite's Win %: 121-363  ( 33.3% )  +/-: -31.5% against a 17.1% takeout  


Poly Tracks 2014-6 (All Final): 85-568      ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68     ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587     ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2014-8 (All Final):2002-9762 ($16,760.00) Beatable Favorites : 295-1051( 28.1% )Favorite's Win %: 3584-9857 ( 36.4% ) +/-: -14.1%  against a 16.7% takeout


Cumulative Stats   (All Final): 2087-10328 ($17,579.20)Beatable Favorites : 310-1119( 27.7% )Favorite's Win %: 3747-10442( 35.9% )+/-: -14.9% against a 16.6% takeout


 CoxLA2017