SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Belmont Selections & Analysis - 5/27
  
  

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Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.


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Belmont - 5/27

 

Race  1

1.Gotta Like Him

2.Forte

3.Please Baby

#4 GOTTA LIKE HIM begins his working life this afternoon, and does such with a pair of smart back to back gate moves right here. From a DRF Formulator standpoint, The Toddster is 8:3-1-3 with those fitting ALL this exact criteria ( any sex ), w/ mutuels of $8 x 2 & $9. This is the first foal out of a dam who placed in both starts, and out of the five remaining members of the family tree, four won at first asking, and one scored second time out. #2 FORTE's strong point just may be today's distance of ground ( 402 Tomlinson ), and uncoupled entrymate with the above over his last two breezes, & is also backed by a 3 for 8 trainer stat with the same categories listed above ( lower payouts ). This is another first runner for the dam, and "win early" bloodlines, are okay, but a notch below our top choice. #5 PLEASE BABY draws well & Rudy is 2-7 with those fitting all these parameters ( 13-1 or < & any jock ) -- $16 & $5. 

 

Race  2

1.Glory Road

2.Full Court Press

3.It's All Relevant

These three & no more for all our rolling action.  #5 GLORY ROAD won in a nearly identical spot when posting a career best effort in the first start off the claim, and while a bounce is always possible off a race like that, we're gonna go with what's staring right at us. #4 FULL COURT PRESS closed out the triple at 19-1 in his sole 3rd off the bench attempt, is two of three when made available for purchase, & has done decent work in Elmont. It's difficult not to like a hard knocking horse like #6 IT'S ALL RELEVANT ( 36:15-4-4 ), who despite having some breaks in the action, always gives an excellent account of himself. What really stands out is this one's current 11:9-1-1 streak when going one turn on a fast track. Toss in a 5:4-1-0 mark when loading last, and it's this one's race to lose. 

 

Race  3

1.Bali Belle

2.Devilly

3.Mostly Harmless

#6 BALI BELLE has the best overall body of work in the field, and cuts back while getting Irad in today's 3rd start off the pine. Slight edge. #1 DEVILLY has gone 58-60-61-77 in her turf starts to date, so right off the bat, who knows where her ceiling is in that regards. Jockey/trainer combo have done better in tandem than apart, and gal has yet to miss the board when beginning from the innermost two slots; logical. #7 MOSTLY HARMLESS has outrun her odds in a big way in posting successive lifetime best #'s, but jock leaves a lot to be desired, so we'll keep beneath.  OFF TURF: 1-2-5-4-8(MTO)

 

Race  4 

1.Chloe Rose

2.Holiday Jazz

3.Baba

#5 CHLOE ROSE encountered a bit of trouble in a similar spot at the end of April, but still managed to finish a lively & well clear runner up that day. Filly has done well at this trip & over this strip, so we'll give her a chance to make amends. #6 HOLIDAY JAZZ popped 7 stopped in her first try against victress's, but that's never an easy spot, & it's encouraging to see the jock return; threat if able to get back to the penultimate tally. #2 BABA is confidently stepped up in class today after being snagged three fortnights back, and aside from his best work coming at today's dist. ( 3 for 8, compared to being 1 for 9 otherwise ), got her photo taken the only time she broke from the rail. 

 

Race  5

1.Jill's a Hot Mess

2.Get the Candy

3.Sassy Melissa 

#6 JILL'S A HOT MESS flopped in the comebacker, but completed the exacta in her sole second off the respite start, and got her Polaroid taken in her only T to D engagement. Meeeeek selection in a race that we're not feeling the heat from. #1 GET THE CANDY gets a trainer upgrade for today's return to action, and won in her only foray when coming back off a hibernation ( which happened to be from the one hole. Pre L/O helmsman returns, which we always like to see, as it tells us nothing untoward occurred when thie one was last in action. #5 SASSY MELISSA has posted her two best numeros since switching barns & can land a share.  OFF TURF: 5-3-4-1-7

 

Race  6 

1.Stone Creator

2.Gringotts

3.Caragate 

#5 STONE CREATOR has yet to finish out of the exacta, and we like when a trainer isn't scared of making an equipment or medication change after a strong effort, and you'll note that eye cups are now a part of the package. From a trainer stat perspective, Baker is the man with his locally based allowance dirt stock who were 1-2-3 < 51 days in the rear ( 7-1 or less ), as he's a whopping 9 for 14 with that sort. #3 GRINGOTTS takes the mandatory rise up the ladder after being bought on 4/29, & gets a jock upgrade from that day. Recognize that the top two from that day went 1-2 in separate affairs when next seen, with a negligible average Beyer amongst the two of them. #7 CARAGATE got destroyed when overmatched in the G3, & adds juice off that "effort". 

 

Race  7

1.Storm Shooter

2.Cousin Andrew

3.Jullstone

#7 STORM SHOOTER is wheeled right back after being claimed from a 2nd place finish on the Inner last Saturday, and the pedigree tells us there's some room for improvement for today's 2nd try on the gramma. #3 COUSIN ANDREW lost by about a length in his one "2nd off the shelf" attempt, and did such behind a next out winner when encountering some traffic. Gelding owns a 4:1-1-0-1 mark with a "For Sale" sticker attached to his rump, and closed with a flourish to complete the tri in his only spin on this course. #9 JUULSTONE has blinks added for today's first start for a tag, and 10th different pilot in his last ten outings is clicking at a 30% rate for the meet.  OFF TURF: 7-1(MTO)-8(MTO)-2-5

 

Race  8 

1.Rossa Veloce

2.Forest Caraway

3.Eloquent Speaker

#7 ROSSA VELOCE is an extremely consistent sort ( in the money in 6 of 7, with a splendid overall boxscore at this dx. ), and has also amassed a 3:1-1-0-1 record when beginning from the outermost slot. Mild choice. #5 FOREST CARAWAY was a crisp winner in her one try of an absence, and it also happened to be her only start with the wonder drug. Two fer two mark outside of stakes company makes this one a solid contendress. #2 ELOQUENT SPEAKER has a sweet 10:4-2-1 "declining" record when going 3/4's, & can be a factor if fully cranked up.

 

Race  9 

1.Jet Set Juliet

2.Coolcatsnkittens

3.Gracefully Wild ( AE )

#3 JET SET JULIET hasn't faced the starter since placing in a strung out field right here back in the fall, but gets the "Big L" for today's comebacker, and Rudy Rod more than doubles his normative 18% batting average when putting his sprinters on the sod for the 1st time, off breaks of more than 67 days ( 47-1 or under ), with payouts of $26, $9 & $8 ( and there's a sub category of 2-3 at this level ). #11 COOLCATSNKITTENS takes the biggest drop in the game for today's return, and is another now getting Lasix. #13 GRACEFULLY WILD (AE) needs one to declare in order to face the starter, but should that be the case, will be toting along a solid runner up finish in her lone spin over the blades.  OFF TURF: 10-2-8-1-9  NOTE: AS OF 12:36, #9 WILL BE OUR 3RD CHOICE.

  

Belmont             ( Current ):35-152   ( $213.80 ) Beatable   Favorites    2-7  ( 28.6% )  Favorites  Win %: 54-152 ( 35,5% ) 

Graded Stakes   ( Current ): 5-25      ( $30.40 )  Beatable   Favorites:   0-1  ( 0% )       Favorites  Win %:  8-23    ( 34.1% )

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Aqueduct Spring         ( Final ): 34-134   ( $317.10 ) Beatable   Favorites     2-8  ( 25% )    Favorites  Win %: 42-134  ( 31.3% ) 

Aqueduct Winter         ( Final ): 107-438 ( $926.20 ) Beatable  Favorites: 11-40 ( 27.5% )  Favorites Win %: 166-440 ( 37.7% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2021 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  


Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587       ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-22 (All Final):3253-16594 ($28,115.40)  Beatable Favorites : 403-1475( 27.3% )Favorite's Win %: 6248-16604 ( 37.6% ) +/-: -15.3%  against a 16.7% takeout


Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 3348-17162 ($28,934.60)   Beatable Favorites : 418-1543( 27.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 6411-17265 ( 37.1% ) +/-: -15.7%  against a 16.6% takeout


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