SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Belmont Selections & Analysis - 6/25
  
  

Warning: mysql_query(): Unable to save result set in /home/alsace9/public_html/libraries/joomla/database/database/mysql.php on line 534

Warning: Invalid argument supplied for foreach() in /home/alsace9/public_html/libraries/joomla/database/database/mysql.php on line 383

Warning: Invalid argument supplied for foreach() in /home/alsace9/public_html/libraries/joomla/database/database/mysql.php on line 383

Warning: Invalid argument supplied for foreach() in /home/alsace9/public_html/libraries/joomla/database/database/mysql.php on line 383

Warning: Invalid argument supplied for foreach() in /home/alsace9/public_html/libraries/joomla/database/table.php on line 409

Warning: Invalid argument supplied for foreach() in /home/alsace9/public_html/libraries/joomla/database/database/mysql.php on line 383

Warning: Invalid argument supplied for foreach() in /home/alsace9/public_html/libraries/joomla/database/database/mysql.php on line 383

Warning: Invalid argument supplied for foreach() in /home/alsace9/public_html/libraries/joomla/database/table.php on line 409

Warning: Invalid argument supplied for foreach() in /home/alsace9/public_html/libraries/joomla/database/database/mysql.php on line 383

KevinCoxItem


As for yesterday, to quote Ralphie from 'A Christmas Story' --- "Skunked". 


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 5 - #1 Fingal's Cave


I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.


of

Please visit the Old Friends at Cabin Creek website ( by clicking the image to the left ) and consider helping out in these challenging times.

I want to thank those that read my column, and have recently opened up accounts as a result of their fondness for what they see here. If you have any questions at any time, you can reach me here on Disqus, Parler @BrooklynCowboy, or on Twitter @brooklyncowboy1. For those who dig the scene here, and would like to be part of it, registration on our home page is easy, and if you'd like, feel free to include my name in the referral box, and let me know, so I can try and get ya' some cool swag!


 

Belmont - 6/25

 

Race  1

1.Gambling Girl

2.Lady Mine

3.Bet of the Century

#4 GAMBLING GIRL begins his working life today, and does such with the "Diamond in the Rough" theory behind her, as there's a lone bullet breeze on the docket amidst a bevy of ordinary morning moves. $15,000 bred animal went for more than 13X that amount up in the Adirondacks last year, and the 384 Tomlinson on display is a healthy one. From a DRF Formulator standpoint, T.P. rolls right along with firsters fitting all this exact criteria ( any jock ), as he's 9:4-1-3 in that regards ( $4 x 2 & $8 x 2 ). Things to like. #2 LADY MINE ( cross entered yesterday, so check the changes ) didn't display much when beginning his working life on the 3rd of the month, but in all fairness, this one is better suited for a fast track than one with moisture in it, and we like that there's no scary drop for this cheaply bred runner. FWIW, mommy was a lively runner up ( 70 ) in her second go round, & of the five remaining members of the family tree, three won at first asking, and two won their followups. Would love to see this one more forwardly spotted early on. #7 BET OF THE CENTURY was a nicely clear runner up first out, and has eye cups added off that placing.

 

Race  2

1.Preposterous

2.New Ginya

3.Home for Christmas

#7 PREPOSTEROUS returned off a half'a calendar hibernation to immolate some bread when adding the miracle drug, but we're assuaged by the fact that this outfit more than doubles their normative 22% batting average with turf stayers off breaks of 57 days, as they're 4-11, w/returns of $3, $8, $12 & $6. #3 NEW GINYA fared a bit better in the comebacker when splitting the field, & can move forward with that under her girthstrap. #1 HOME FOR CHRISTMAS is reunited with the the pilot from her lone tally and draws snugly.  OFF TURF: 1-5-6-2-4

 

Race  3

1.Al Qahira

2.Breeze Easy ( GB )

3.Lakota Spirit

#2 AL QAHIRA has gone 71-75-78 in her troika of turf starts thus far, so right off the bat, who knows where her ceiling is in that regards. Difficult to argue with the three exacta finishes from as many sod starts. #4 BREEZE EASY (GB) had an hellacious journey when taking here initial spin in The States, and gets a big time upgrade in the jockey dept. this afternoon. Pedigree tells us she should absolutely relish today's added ground. #3 LAKOTA SPIRIT was up in time to secure the sheepskin when going over the gramma for the 1st time and is logical once again.  OFF TURF: 2-4-5-3-1  NOTE: #5 IS OUR 3RD CHOICE.

 

Race  4 

1.Darn That Song

2.Lady Yellen

3.Jet Set Juliet

#5 DARN THAT SONG has ( for this group ) a fairly decent body of work, and although he's been skunked on the stand this far, Cousin Brucie has nothing but hits when it comes to his dirt stock at this level off breaks of 41-57 days ( 13-1 or undah ), as he's 4 of 5 with 'em ( $13, $4, $5 & $9 ). #7 LADY YELLEN was an even runner up in this race on the second of the month, & catches a glib surface for just the second time. #4 JET SET JULIET was a daylight clear runner up in her only try on the main way back when, and finds herself at her lowest level to date. 

 

Race  5

1.Poncho Song 

2.Fingal's Cave

3.Bankers Daughter

#6 PONCHO SONG found the line first in her lone try when breaking from the outermost slot, & could be sitting on a good one for today's third off the shelf jammie. BEATABLE FAVORITE/2ND CHOICE: #1 FINGAL'S CAVE makes all kinds of sense off the visually impressive maiden breaker, but Donk is oh-fer-27 with maiden breakers on the brown stuff. #5 BANKERS DAUGHTER is a nibbler by rote and can land a share. 

 

Race  6 

1.Beachfront Kid

2.Vagaries ( Ire )

3.Libretto ( Ire )

#2 BEACHFRONT KID has yet to miss a superfecta, and although she has a penchant for setting money ablaze, Jockey/Trainer combo are on a nifty 10 for 21 run with those going postward at 5-1 or lower. #4 VAGARIES (IRE) ( 2nd half of the uncoupled entry w/the above ) hasn't been in action since the fall, but gets the "Big L" for today's return, and through natural maturity, those figaros from 2021 could put her smack dab in the middle of things today. #3 LIBRETTO (IRE) outran her odds when closing out the tri at 20-1 first time out, and after disappointing with the blinker addition two fortnights back, deserves another shot -- especially with the Trevor reunion this afternoon.  OFF TURF: 3-1-2-8-6

 

Race  7

1.Brazillionaire 

2.Moped Dennis

3.Cousin Andrew

#4 BRAZILLIONAIRE went coast to coast like butter and toast in his sole "third off the bench" affair, and placed in both starts on the Widener; logical being wheeled right back in the first start off the snag. #2 MOPED DENNIS goes over the green stuff for the first time here, and although the pedigree for such is just about average, sometimes dirt speed can carry a runner like this a long way, and we'll chunk him into the cookie batter. #7 COUSIN ANDREW was a strong runner up the one time he was in this sort of L/O spot, and has yet to run a clunker on the turf. Sensible addition. 

 

Race  8 

1.Gerrymander

2.Venti Valentine

3.Midnight Stroll

Very week rendition of the Mother Goose this year, and we'll give a meek nod to #4 GERRYMANDER. Stakes winner had an upwards arrow alongside the BSF's of her initial four trips to the frontside, but then the wheels came off in a Grade Two stinker down in Louisville, Ky. In all fairness, she had a troubled start that day, and can right the trip with a tidier onset in a more truncated grouping. Our prose above can be pretty much duplicated for #2 VENTI VALENTINE, who goes two tun to one, while owning the ability to send or rate just a bit. #3 MIDNIGHT STROLL completes our troika of selections coming in off forgettable heats & would be no surprise. NOTE: AS OF 11:40, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, #1 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  9 

1.Big Agenda

2.American Lincoln

3.Mo Ready

#5 BIG AGENDA picked up the lion's share in a near identical spot at the end of April, so why not again -- especially with the 18 exacta finishes from 31 starts on the lawn. #3 AMERICAN LINCOLN comes in off back to back career best #'s on the verde, and tho winless in his last 15, deserves some respect. #4 MO READY is one of two in second off the L/O starts on firm ground, and as we're not fond of using bugs in turf routes, will relegate to the "unders".  OFF TURF: 9-6-3-5-1(MTO)

 

Race  10

1.Jack the Cat ( AE )

2.Battalion ( AE )

3.Grand Journey ( AE )

#16 JACK THE CAT (AE) needs three to bail out in order to face the starter, but should that occur, would be toting a one of three ledger in third off the respite deals ( with the tally occurring in his only foray when last to load in a route, while owning a 6:3-2-1 mark on the ITC to boot. #14 BATTALION (AE) is another on the outside looking in, but has won two of his last six with a "For Sale" sticket attached to his rump, and rates a shot if sound after the voided claim. #15 GRAND JOURNEY (AE) completes our "Also Eligible Triple" based on his nice "declining" record & a strong runner up finish behind our top choice.  OFF TURF: 10-2-8-1-9  NOTE: AS OF 11:44, DUE TO TWO LATE SCRATCHES, #'S 1 & 3 WILL BE OUR 2ND & 3RD SELECTIONS RESPECTIVELY.

  

Belmont             ( Current ): 72-325  ( $426.40 ) Beatable   Favorites    4-22 ( 18.2% ) Favorites  Win %: 119-325 ( 36.5% ) ( As of Saturday morning ) 

Graded Stakes   ( Current ): 6-28      ( $50 )       Beatable    Favorites:   0-1   ( 0% )     Favorites  Win %:  8-26      ( 30.7% )

_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Aqueduct Spring         ( Final ): 34-134   ( $317.10 ) Beatable   Favorites     2-8  ( 25% )    Favorites  Win %: 42-134  ( 31.3% ) 

Aqueduct Winter         ( Final ): 107-438 ( $926.20 ) Beatable  Favorites: 11-40 ( 27.5% )  Favorites Win %: 166-440 ( 37.7% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2021 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  


Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587       ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-22 (All Final):3253-16594 ($28,115.40)  Beatable Favorites : 403-1475( 27.3% )Favorite's Win %: 6248-16604 ( 37.6% ) +/-: -15.3%  against a 16.7% takeout


Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 3348-17162 ($28,934.60)   Beatable Favorites : 418-1543( 27.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 6411-17265 ( 37.1% ) +/-: -15.7%  against a 16.6% takeout


cox2022logo