SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Belmont at Aqueduct Selections & Analysis - 9/24
  
  

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Just a reminder that for today's coverage of the Grade One's Cotillion & Pennsylvania Derby from Philadelphia Park, merely go back one page.  


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.


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Belmont at Aqueduct - 9/24

 

Race  1

1.Dreampoint

2.Excursionniste

3.Silent Running

#1 DREAMPOINT is pretty much a professional maiden these days, but has partaken in the superfecta in seven of eight, and owns a decent selection of figaros. Meek selection in a forgettable opener. #6 EXCURSIONNISTE has hit the board in his last pair, and seems to be the main threat to the above. #8 SILENT RUNNING gets some class relief today & is reunited with the pilot he's best familiar with.  OFF TURF: 1-2-5-6-8

 

Race  2

1.Air Show

2.Bingo John

3.Will E Sutton

We don't have the best of reads on this thing, so tread lightly.  #1 AIR SHOW found the line first the only time he cut back in two dirt events, totes the lightest impost of her career, and is on a 4:1-0-2-1 run when entered for 35K or less. Hum drum choice. #2 BINGO JOHN hasn't been seen since the end of May, but is 3:1-0-1 off a break in the action, and has fared decently at The Big A. Could spice things up a bit. #6 WILL E SUTTON has been claimed in both starts when eligible for such, and takes the mandatory hike in class while going 2X to 1X for the first time. 

 

Race  3

1.Love and Thunder ( Ire )

2.Kalifornia Queen ( Ger )

3.Evvie Jets

Featured race of the day comes a bit early on the card, and we'll give a timid nod to the #3 LOVE AND THUNDER. Half of the uncoupled Brown entry has missed the money but once since arriving in the States, and from an itty bitty sampling, the aforementioned shotcaller has won both times he's entered a graded sod stayer ( NOT getting the wonder drug ) who hit the board 29-67 days back & are 6-1 or undah ( $4 & $6 ). #4 KALIFORNIA QUEEN (GER) hasn't been seen since Hector was a pup, but owns some back class, as well as a placing from two starts off the bench. #2 EVVIE JETS completes the "St.Patrick's Day/Oktoberfest/Independence Day" triple based on the decent overall resume'.  OFF TURF: 5-3-4-1-2

 

Race  4 

1.Funny Joke

2.Hagler

3.Be the Boss

#3 FUNNY JOKE was up the track when the recipient of an ill advised switch to the gramma about a month ago, and is now returned to one turn dirt event -- of which he's won in both attempts. Jockey/Trainer combo are on a 2 for 4 run in tandem ( at less than 64-1 ), with returns of $5 & $27. #2 HAGLER didn't show much punch when last facing the starter, but chestnut chap was photogenic in both 2nd off the L/O engagements, and finds himself at his lowest level to date. #6 BE THE BOSS is 3:1-1-0 on the sand, and we dig that the pre claim pilot returns. 

 

Race  5

1.Let Her Inspire U

2.Sister Linda

3.Bustin Bay

#4 LET HER INSPIRE YOU is a completely different animal in 2022, has the ability to send or rate just a bit, and appears to be a deserving favorite in this spot. #3 SISTER LINDA scored by a dozen in her sole start off a hibernation ( which came at today's trip ), and rates a shot IF sound AND should the above not fire. #1 BUSTIN BAY owns a nice "declining" mark in Ozone Park ( 9:3-2-1 ) and was a gamely runner up the only time she was first to load on the main. Not hopeless. 

 

Race  6 

1.Global Surprise

2.Bat Flip

3.Happy Cat

#2 GLOBAL SURPRISE was a daylight clear runner up in the Jersey bow, and perhaps checking a bit cost him the lion's share that day. The turf pedigree is just so so for his first try on the stuff, but sometimes speed can go a long way in these turf dashes, and as this one has shown a lot of sip in the mornings, we're thinking he should be in a good spot throughout. #1 BAT FLIP ( cross entered at Philadelphia Park, so check the changes ) showed improvement from the first start to the next, and pricey fella likely has ample room for improvement. #6 HAPPY CAT as good as any for the show dough.  OFF TURF: 2-5-9-10-1A(MTO)

 

Race  7

1.Drink the Wind

2.Doctor Love

3.Fast N Fearious 

Draw a line through the most recent of #7 DRINK THE WIND, as he was still in jail after the August 10th purchase, and he's not particularly well bred for the gramma, the end result that day was likely not a surprise. Trevor sticks around, and as this one has gone 27-75-74-84 in his dirt starts to date, who quite knows where his ceiling is in that regards. From a DRF Formulator standpoint, barn is a crisp three of four when going green to brown with their 2nd off the snag stock ( three fortnights or less ), and the returns for that study were $16, $6 & $3. Of course, we love the draw. #5 DOCTOR LOVE bested half the field at 27-1 in a near identical spot last month, & as he's been a part of the super in 4 of 5 dirt engagements, we have no qualms in including at double digit odds. #3 FAST N FEARIOUS went all the way on Bijou Day, and has done VERY little wrong on this surface. 

 

Race  8 

1.Danzigwiththestars

2.Transactional

3.Masterofthesenate

#2 DANZIGWITHTHESTARS was fanned wide when turning for home up at The Spa last time out, but had a troika of honest efforts just prior to that, and could offer some decently hidden value this afternoon. #4 TRANSACTIONAL ground out a win when beginning his working life on the 19th of August, and the MONSTROUS 435 Tommy for the green stuff, says to us that the shore was likely not a fluke. Franco fills in for Irad, who's in P.A., and Manny's done quite well here for Chad. #5 MASTEROFTHESENATE went from zero to hero in procuring the sheepskin in the Virgina overture ( at $20 ), and given the bloodlines, we wouldn't be surprised to see another strong finish.  OFF TURF: 8-7-4-3-10(MTO)

 

Race  9 

1.Therisastormbrewin

2.Best Idea

3.Key Point

Couple'a solid sets of trainer statistics in play here, so let's get to 'em without further "to do".    #5 THERISASTORMBREWIN: 18% Rudy Rod doubles that normative batting average ( 4-11 ) with Queens based, male optional sand sprinters who missed the baccala 36 to 50 days in the rear that are 18-1 or beneath ( $8, $3 x 2 & $7 ). #2 BEST IDEA: The Toddster clicks at a 6 fer 16 rate with those of this ilk who tallied a win 20-50 days ago beneath the 12-1 watermark, and there's a sub category of 1-1 with Jose in the saddle. #7 KEY POINT is two for two over a glib surface, and what the hell's wrong with that?

 

Race  10

1.Cross Border

2.City Man

3.Sanctuary City

These three and no more for all our rolling action.   #4 CROSS BORDER hasn't hit the board once in five starts this annum, but new outfit re-enlists J. Ortiz here, & it's worth noting that he 7:2-3-1 when at the helm. Recognize the 3 for 6 mark when dancing with state breds ( 50% ) in comparison to being 8 for 38 ( 21% ) ledger otherwise. #5 CITY MAN sure is a game sort, ain't he? We clicked two back with him, and 5YO placed by just a half the only time he set his tootsies on this oval. Pretty emotional with for Dr. Messina ( who gave a FANTASTIC, lengthy interview on Capital OTB this summer ) with #6 SANCTUARY CITY on three weeks in the past, as the neck score moved this $5,000 bred animal past the 450K mark in career earnings. Can't say enough about the work Jimmy Ferraro has done w/ this one, & as Trevor goes with the bigger barn, Franco gets the call, and he helped this one outrun his odds in both of their pairings.   OFF TURF: 8(MTO)-7-4-3-9(MTO)

 

Race  11

1.Jannie Mae

2.Latest Edition ( AE )

3.Skyward Princess

#3 JANNIE MAE tossed in a bit of a stinker when last seen, but showed in this race just before that ( at 18-1 ), and has a big shot if able to set some easy fractions in a race devoid of much speed. #11 LATEST EDITION needs one to declare in order to get suited up, but should that occur, would be toting along an ascending troika of speed figures. #7 SKYWARD PRINCESS hasn't shown much to date, but makes her first start with blinkers on the turf, and dismiss the barn at your own peril.  OFF TURF: 3-12(AE)-11(AE)-15(AE)

 
Aqueduct               ( Current ):  14-58   ( $62.20 )   Beatable  Favorites     1-3  ( 33.3% )   Favorites  Win %:   25-58    ( 43.1% )    ( As of Saturday morning )

Graded Stakes      ( Current ):  9-37      ( $77 )       Beatable   Favorites:   1-2   ( 50% )      Favorites  Win %:  15-36     ( 41.7% )

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Saratoga                    ( Final ):  82-417  ( $760.30 ) Beatable    Favorites:   7-27( 25.9% )  Favorites Win %:  153-417 ( 36.7% ) 

Belmont                      ( Final ): 88-420   ( $563.10 ) Beatable   Favorites    7-28 ( 25% )    Favorites  Win %: 154-420 ( 36.7% )   

Aqueduct Spring         ( Final ): 34-134   ( $317.10 ) Beatable   Favorites     2-8  ( 25% )    Favorites  Win %: 42-134  ( 31.3% ) 

Aqueduct Winter         ( Final ): 107-438 ( $926.20 ) Beatable  Favorites: 11-40 ( 27.5% )  Favorites Win %: 166-440 ( 37.7% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2021 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  


Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587       ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-22 (All Final):3433-17431 ($29438.80)  Beatable Favorites : 417-1530( 27.3% )Favorite's Win %: 6555-17441 ( 37.6% ) +/-: -15.6%  against a 16.8% takeout


Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 3517-17999   ( $30,258 )   Beatable Favorites : 432-1598( 27.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 6565-17685 ( 37.1% ) +/-: -15.9%  against a 16.7% takeout


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