SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Belmont at Aqueduct Selections & Analysis - 9/25
  
  

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 Yet another chalky day yesterday, which usually doesn't work for us.


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None  NOTE: AS OF 11:33, IN RACE 6, #10 IS NOW A BEATABLE FAVORITE.


I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.


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Belmont at Aqueduct - 9/25

 

Race  1

1.Nice 'n Spicy

2.Attached

3.Blanchiment

#7 NICE 'N SPICY bested more than half the field when trying the main for the first time, and the 375 Tommy tells us that there may be some room for improvement in that regards. Blinkers are now a part of the makeup, and there's a snappy DRF Formulator stat in play here, as Maker is on the mark with his female dirt stock taking the biggest drop in the game, off breaks of less than 46 days ( 8-1 or beneath & NOT getting the wonder drug. He's 4 for 7 in that regards, with payouts of $4, $3, $8 & $11. #3 ATTACHED has shown nothing in the morings for today's overture, but is a full to a present day runner who's 6:2-0-1-1 on  a fast track ( 29K ), AND won at first asking. #4 BLANCHIMENT had a trip to forget first time out, but plunges today, and two of three who finished in front of her came back to win their followups.  NOTE: AS OF 11:37, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #2 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  2

1.Mount Travers

2.Trophy Chaser

3.Secret Rules

#1A MOUNT TRAVERS was all out to best slightly softer up north a month ago, and aside from this gelding having done his best work at today's trip ( 2 for 8 compared to 2 for 23 otherwise ), is backed by a solid trainer statistic. Over the last 60 months, this 15% barn more than triples that rate ( 5 for 10 ) with locally based mid level male dirt stock who won 21-50 days back, at 10-1 or undah. The payoffs for that survey were $2, $3, $4 & $6 x s, and there's a sub category of 2 of 3 w/today's jock aboard. #7 TROPHY CHASER finds himself at at all time low, and 6YO "horse" ( You hang on to those trophy's, buddy !! ) is two of two beneath Bobblehead. #5 SECRET RULES is 4:1-3-0 in "true" starts off the pine, and has done well in this sip code. 

 

Race  3

1.Home for Christmas

2.Spungie

3.My Lips Are Sealed

#1 HOME FOR CHRISTMAS is on a 6:2-3-0 run when going over firm ground, and has a decent shot if able to get a cleaner trip than the most recent. #2 SPUNGIE lost by a neck directly behind a next out winner the only time she was in a second off the L/O spot, and lightly raced five year old likely needed the last. #6 MY LIPS ARE SEALED is a fairly consistent sort who's 2:1-1-0 off of this kind of layoff scenario and scored in her lone tally on the Inner.  OFF TURF: 2-4-10(MTO)-9-3

 

Race  4 

1.Leeloo

2.Byhubbyhellomoney

3.Khali Magic

#5 LEELOO takes the obligatory rise in class after besting A1X foes , and has been transferred back to underrated shotcaller Duggan, who was 3:1-1-0 w/ this one outside of stakes company. Slight edge. #1 BYHUBBYHELLOMONEY is one of two off a sabbatical, and placed in his only one turn try on a glib surface ( Adj. 84.8 at a higher level, W/O the use of Lasix. ). You should be demanding a little more than 4-1 here. #6 KHALI MAGIC has partaken in the super in her last 11, and it's hard to argue with the 4:1-1-2 mark at The Big A. 

 

Race  5

1.Loz

2.Heymackit'sjack

3.Ouster

#8 LOZ has yet to crash the super, but only lost by 3+ when last facing the starter and Franco sees fit to stick around. Timid choice in a tough race to embrace. #7 HEYMACKIT'SJACK had positively no excuse in his Spa finale, but could rebound switching back to a firm turf course. #1 OUSTER has shown improvement with each start, and the lone sibling with turf experience went 2:1-1-0 on the stuff. Factor on the surface switch if fully cranked up AND able to overcome his issues in the starting apparatus.  OFF TURF: 4-8-2-1-11(AE)

 

Race  6 

1.Conversing ( AE )

2.Freedom Trail

3.Kaw Liga

#12 CONVERSING (AE) missed by only a head in a blanket finish when beginning his career in Togatown three dozen days back, and being an Into Mischief out of a Candy Ride dam, we wouldn't be shocked to see another strong performance -- should two declare. #6 FREEDOM TRAIL gets his working papers this afternoon, and aside from conducting his morning affairs in a professional manner, went for 10X the stud fee at auction, and has a bit of decent turf pedigree. J/T combo are 3 of 11 together over the last five years, as well. #8 KAW LIGA ( a 1953 song by Hank Williams, which can be found right here https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7FY7RWJAtJQ ) has a bullet gate breeze on the ledger, and that ALWAYS merits inclusion for a firster.  OFF TURF: 11(AE)-3-7-13(AE)-14(AE)  NOTE: AS OF 11:33, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #12(AE) WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #10 DETERMINEDLY fills the bill, as barn is 0-10 with maiden special weight turf stayers who missed the board seven weeks ago or less ( no Lasix ) beneath the 10-1 watermark.

 

Race  7

1.Moon Hunter

2.Cash in a Flash

3.Endowed

#4 MOON HUNTER was extremely wide in the most recent, and got smacked around pretty good just before that, so there's a bit of an avenue to get back to that maiden breaking effort from July. Chestnut chap switches to the brown stuff this afternoon, and as he's a bit better bred for it than the verde, we can see even more reason for improvement ( at a big price ) with a tidy trek. #1 CASH IN A FLASH owns some early zip and completed the triple the only time he set his tootsies on the sand. #11 ENDOWED can land a share on today's cutback.  NOTE: #11 IS NOW OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  8 

1.Mispelled Moon

2.Train to Artemus

3.Abuse of Power

These three and no more for all our rolling action.  #1 MISPELLED MOON has hit the board every time he's left the gate, and as of one of two speedsters signed on, we're seeing the race going through her with a crisp break. #8 TRAIN TO ARTEMUS shoots for the hat trick this afternoon, and as he's improved w/each passing turf engagement, we'd day it's well within reach; should be no worse than 3rd for all you show grinders out there. #2 ABUSE OF POWER is in decent form of late & has completed the triple in both starts at today's distance of ground.  OFF TURF: 7-1-8-6-3

 

Race  9 

1.Kimari

2.Remain Anonymous

3.Cheetara ( Chi )

Today's feature is upon us, and while we've seen better renditions of the Gallant Bloom, at least this is a competitive one.   #5 KIMARI is the lone Grade Two/Grade One winner in the bunch, won her only start at the dx., and was photogenic in her one "second off the bench" jammie. Toss in a win the sole time she loaded last ( with none of the aforementioned three categories overlapping ), & you have the makings of a deserving favorite. #2 REMAIN ANONYMOUS has partaken in the exacta in just about 2/3rd's of his outings, and that's reason enough to include. #4 CHEETARA (CHI) tossed in a rare stinkah at Colonial, but can rebound. 

 

Race  10

1.Myriskyaffair

2.Elle Est Forte 

3.Transient ( GB )

#6 MYRISKYAFFAIR comes in off a layoff for the first time, but has shown enough versatility ( three different conditions of turf, dirt, poly, multiple venues, with Lasix or without ) to tell us she should be just fine in today's comebacker. #4 ELLE EST FORTE has the hood added after disappointing in Kentucky, and may be a bit closer to the pace here. #2 TRANSIENT (GB) is another one who "gets around", and was a nice runner up the only time she was in a 2nd off the shelf situation.  OFF TURF: 11(MTO)-4-3-2-9 


Aqueduct               ( Current ):  17-69   ( $73.60 )   Beatable  Favorites     1-3  ( 33.3% )    Favorites  Win %:  31-69   ( 44.9% )    ( As of Sunday morning )

Graded Stakes      ( Current ):  9-39      ( $77 )       Beatable   Favorites:   1-2   ( 50% )      Favorites  Win %:  16-38    ( 42.1% )

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Saratoga                    ( Final ):  82-417  ( $760.30 ) Beatable    Favorites:   7-27( 25.9% )  Favorites Win %:  153-417 ( 36.7% ) 

Belmont                      ( Final ): 88-420   ( $563.10 ) Beatable   Favorites    7-28 ( 25% )    Favorites  Win %: 154-420 ( 36.7% )   

Aqueduct Spring         ( Final ): 34-134   ( $317.10 ) Beatable   Favorites     2-8  ( 25% )    Favorites  Win %: 42-134  ( 31.3% ) 

Aqueduct Winter         ( Final ): 107-438 ( $926.20 ) Beatable  Favorites: 11-40 ( 27.5% )  Favorites Win %: 166-440 ( 37.7% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2021 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  


Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587       ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-22 (All Final):3433-17431 ($29438.80)  Beatable Favorites : 417-1530( 27.3% )Favorite's Win %: 6555-17441 ( 37.6% ) +/-: -15.6%  against a 16.8% takeout


Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 3517-17999   ( $30,258 )   Beatable Favorites : 432-1598( 27.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 6565-17685 ( 37.1% ) +/-: -15.9%  against a 16.7% takeout


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