SaratogaBets Handicapping - Aqueduct Selections and Analysis - 11/25


Hope everyone had a wonderful Thanksgiving !

Just a couple for us here on Sunday, but we did a deep dive on something: Over the last seven Aqueduct meets, we are 300 for 1360, $2,720 Bet...$2,734 Returned !!

Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 8 - #12 Dancing Buck ( as of 10:41 A.M. Friday )

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.


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Aqueduct - 11/25


Race  1


2.Juniper's Moon

3.Maria from Miami

#1 ANISTON was far behind the rest of her Friends when starting things out back in September but as Pletcher does well with 2nd time starters, we're not expecting her to be in the Pitts for today's followup. Expensive gal has shown some "flair" for things in the mornings since, and should appreciate the second turn today. #3 JUNIPER'S MOON overcame an awkward onset to pick up 20% of the pot when going long on the lawn at first asking, and as this January foal is a touch better bred for the brown than the green, were seeing at least a similar -- if not better -- effort. #4 MARIA FROM MIAMI was a well clear runner up in the most recent, and being a Candy Ride out of an Indian Charlie dam, should be able to get this distance of ground. 


Race  2

1.Goodmorning Angel 


3.Mostly Harmless

#6 GOODMORNING ANGEL returned off a half'a calendar sabbatical to finish in the back of the pack when going over the blades, and gal drops once again in switching back to what will likely be her preferred surface down the road. #4 TEKILA has partaken in the super in four of five, but is beginning to look like "that" kind of a maiden, so we'll keep beneath. #2 MOSTLY HARMLESS is another check earner who's done okay when going T to D. 


Race  3

1.Cupid's Heart


3.Vienna Code

#4 CUPID'S HEART is three of three outside of stakes company ( all by open lengths ), and we see no reason this one couldn't be sitting on another corker in today's 3rd off the layoff jammie. #2 WASP has hit the board in six straight and cuts back from two turns to one, while owning a win in her lone pairing beneath Irad. Lightly raced mare has done well in Ozone Park & should be in the thick of things once again. #3 VIENNA CODE has done her best work here and may spice things up a tad. 


Race  4


2.Acoustic Ave 

3.D'ont Lose Cruz

#1 STARQUIST showed ( from a Beyer aspect ) some nice improvement when tangling w/ winners for the first time, when showing in the Sleepy Hollow, and we see no reason that he can't replicate that sort of effort here. #3 ACOUSTIC AVE has done very little wrong in four starts to date ( 4:3-0-1 ), and he showed some nice grit when re-rallying up at The Lakes to get the lion's share in a heat where two of three comebackers came back to score, with an avg. speed figure improvement of 8 points each. #4 D'ONT LOSE CRUZ jumped up from a 75 to an 84 back in late October, but given that she appears to have outrun her bloodlines a bit, we'll keep in the "unders". 


Race  5

1.Secret Rules

2.Outlaw Kid

3.In Dreams

#5 SECRET RULES owns a 4:1-2-1 boxscore off a break in the action, is 11:2-5-2 in this zip code, and gets in with a feather. Grab him by the tail to get the glory. #8 OUTLAW KID goes over the brown stuff for the 1st time this afternoon, and as he's precipitously better bred for it than the gramma ( over which he has performed damn well ), we're envisioning another goodie in this one's future -- especially with the wonder drug now a part of the makeup. #4 IN DREAMS hasn't been seen since Hector was a pup, but barn knows how to have 'em ready off the shelf, and pre layoff jock comes back -- which we always find encouraging. 


Race  6

1.Temple City Terror

2.Capital Structure ( GB ) 

3.Rocky Sky ( Ire )

#2 TEMPLE CITY TERROR down the lane. #6 CAPITAL STRUCTURE (GB) appears to have the best shot of upsetting the apple cart based on the recent/decent placing here, as well as having won in her only start when breaking from the outermost two slots over firm ground. #4 ROCKY SKY (IRE) can complete the Apple Pie/Crumpets/Soda Bread tri based on the career best numero garnered 54 days ago.  OFF TURF: 5-6-1-2-4


Race  7


2.Morning Matcha


#7 FALCONET has gotten better and better with each passing start over a glib surface ( 79-80-84-86  ), so right off the bat, who knows where her roof is in that regards. Filly sure doesn't need to take her track with her, as this is her 5th different venue amongst her 6 call to the post ( having never missed an exacta ), and J/T combo have always done well together. #6 MORNING MATCHA came along with a flourish to place in her sole "true" start off the bench, and has done decently here. #5 NOSTALGIC will be brought over by a bossman who's 7:3-1-0-2 with graded sand stayers who crashed the party less than three fortnights back ( no juice ) ridden by Junior ( at 8-1 or undah ). 


Race  8

1.Voodoo Zip

2.Bad Beat Brian

3.Prime Factor ( AE )

#1 VOODOO ZIP has done some nice work going 3/4's, and has a nice rapport with Joel, under whom he's 6:3-2-0-1, and in a bit of an anomaly, draws the inside for the first time in this, his 18th afternoon trek to the frontside. Soon to be six year old "horse" ( You put the voodoo on anyone looking to remove your "zip" buddy boy ! ) would be aided by any pace to cut into. #2 BAD BEAT BRIAN is an extremely consistent sort who is confidently shipped northward ( along with the pilot ) in search of some graded black type, and has already proven to be a nice claim for the connections. #13 PRIME FACTOR (AE) needs someone to get the sniffles in order to make it into the body of the race, but should that come to bear, would be toting along solid second place finish in his initial turf try four weeks ago.  OFF TURF: 13(AE)-9-4-15(MTO)-2  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #12 DANCING BUCK  NOTE: AS OF 10:48, DUE TO TWO LATE SCRATCHES, #'S 5 & 6 WILL BE OUR 2ND & 3RD CHOICES RESPECTIVELY.


Race  9

1.Lookin Grand

2.North Pole

3.Strong Light

#10 LOOKIN GRAND takes her initial spin on the brown stuff this afternoon, and aside from being adequately bred for it, would be dropping to his lowest level to date, while also owning a bullet dirt breeze ( before the most recent ), which tells us he should be just fine over the stuff. Mild choice in a finale that's hard to hug. #3 NORTH POLE was a gamely runner up in this race on 10/6, and makes all kinds of sense once again. #7 STRONG LIGHT plunges here and comes in having received the unkindest cut of all. Eligible to rebound in today's 2nd off the claim/2nd time blinks deal.  


Aqueduct               ( Current ):  22-105  ( $153 )      Beatable Favorites:     1-3   ( 33.3% )  Favorites Win %:   40-104  ( 38.5% )

Graded Stakes      ( Current ):  13-72    ( $97.50 )   Beatable   Favorites:   1-2   ( 50% )     Favorites  Win %:  28-72    ( 38.9% )


Aqueduct                   ( Final ):  65-269 ( $556.50 )  Beatable  Favorites     4-20 ( 20% )     Favorites  Win %:  97-269  ( 36.1% )  

Saratoga                    ( Final ):  82-417  ( $760.30 ) Beatable    Favorites:   7-27( 25.9% )  Favorites Win %:  153-417 ( 36.7% ) 

Belmont                      ( Final ): 88-420   ( $563.10 ) Beatable   Favorites    7-28 ( 25% )    Favorites  Win %: 154-420 ( 36.7% )   

Aqueduct Spring         ( Final ): 34-134   ( $317.10 ) Beatable   Favorites     2-8  ( 25% )    Favorites  Win %: 42-134  ( 31.3% ) 

Aqueduct Winter         ( Final ): 107-438 ( $926.20 ) Beatable  Favorites: 11-40 ( 27.5% )  Favorites Win %: 166-440 ( 37.7% )

All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2021 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  

Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587       ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-22 (All Final):3498-17700 ($29995.30)  Beatable Favorites : 421-1551( 27.1% )Favorite's Win %: 6652-17710 ( 37.6% ) +/-: -15.3%  against a 16.8% takeout

Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 3582-18265  ( $30,814.50 )Beatable Favorites : 436-1618( 27% )  Favorite's Win %: 6662-17954 ( 37.1% ) +/-: -15.6%  against a 16.7% takeout