SaratogaBets Handicapping - Aqueduct Selections and Analysis - 11/26


Profitable three bagger to start out the truncated week yesterday ( along with a successful Beatable Favorite ), and over the last seven Aqueduct meets, we are 303 for 1369, $2,738 Bet...$2,752 Returned !! 

Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 5 - #10 General Jim  Race 9 - #9 Soldier Rising ( GB )

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.


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Aqueduct - 11/26


Race  1

1.Bernt Again


3.Luna Loca

#3 BERNT AGAIN has yet to partake in the superfecta in four afternoon treks to the frontside, but has steadily improved in the Beyer department with each afternoon trek to the frontside, and switches over to what we believe will be her preferred surface down the road. Meekest of selections in an uninspiring opener. #9 DARKNSTORMY has been freshened up since the last flop, and draws better today, but yikes with the pilot's oh-fer-107 mark. #2 LUNA LOCA gets a second shot on the main & takes the biggest drop in the biz. 


Race  2

1.F F Rocket

2.Patient Capital


#1 F F ROCKET has performed admirably over his last pair, is 2:1-0-1 when first to load, and should be no worse than second for all you place punters out there. #3 PATIENT CAPITAL is another w/ decent form of late, and best work has come at this locale. #7 RELATE finished second behind a next out winner in his lone 2nd off the shelf engagement, and has done okay on the sand. 


Race  3



3.Mon Petit Chou

#7 CUSTOMEREXPERIENCE is 5 of 12 at The Big A, and is 3:2-0-1 in third off the bench jammies. Toss in the solid mark right here, ( as well as the 3-10 trainer stat with locally based, mid level dirt stock ridden by today's pilot ( off breaks of 26-1 or less ) and you have the makings of a solid selection. #8 BABA is 8:3-2-1-2 when made available for purchase & has done fine work at this trip and over this trip. #6 MON PETIT CHOU has the "For Sale" sticker attached to her rump for the first time today, & could perk up a bit.  


Race  4

1.Up to the Mark

2.Life Changer

3.Luni Sima

#4 UP TO THE MARK was awful when trying to make that 2nd left on Sept. 29th, but cuts back today, and is 2:1-0-1 going 1X. Slight edge in a race with no first draft tossouts. #2 LIFE CHANGER has hit the board in six straight, and soon to be 6YO "horse" ( You keep clear of that vet to avoid any life changing experiences, buddy ! ) goes from an apprentice to a journeyman here -- an angle we've always been fond of. #1 LUNI SIMA is another eschewing weight for experience in this spot, and recognize that Javy guided this one to a lively placing in their only pairing. 


Race  5


2.Let's Go Big Blue

3.Bat Flip

#1 CALYCANTHUS went coast to coast like butter and toast directly in front of a next out winner to pick up the sheepskin right here at a whopping ( especially for Pletcher ) $62, and while a bounce is always possible ( especially if the course comes up firm ), we feel this fella may get overlooked a bit once again. Note that the runner up that day improved by about 11.2% in the adjusted Beyer dept. when next in action. #9 LET'S GO BIG BLUE has hit the board in all three starts so far, and after having a bit of trouble in all of those soiree's, blinkers are now a part of the makeup. #2 BAT FLIP has taken to the lawn like a Toro lawnmower since getting over the stuff, and could knock it out of the park once again.  OFF TURF: 1-2-7-10-4  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #5 GENERAL JIM fills the bill, as Shug is 0-12 with all applicable categories. 


Race  6



3.Victory Built

#1 ATHENRY is a fairly consistent chap who's precipitously better bred for the brown than the green, and he's been doing quite well over the verde, so we have no problems with seeing another solid effort -- especially as he found the line first in his sole start when breaking from the wood. #3 SANDRONE can send or rate just a bit, and makes his third start off the respite this afternoon. #7 VICTORY BUILT appears to be the clear speed of this deal, but we'll keep beneath because of his nibbling ways ( 40:3-14-6 ).


Race  7

1.Summer Takeover

2.Bavarian Creme 


These three and no more for all our rolling action.   #3 SUMMER TAKEOVER begins her working life here, and daughter of Arrogate totes along a fat 399 Tomlinson figure for today's distance of ground, while being backed by a solid DRF Formulator statistic. Over the last six Thanksgivings, Abreu is a poyfect 4 fer 4 with AQU firsters at this level not getting juice ( 7-1 or less ), with payoffs of $14, $12, $11 & $7. #1 BAVARIAN CREME will be led over by a trainer who's on the "Mark" with going T to D & long to short with those off absences of < 56 days, as he's 5:2-1-1-1 in that regards ( $16 & $9 ), with a sub category of 1-1 against mdspwt company. #6 PHOTON has been a part of the triple in her last quartet, and Breen gets the green when going green to brown with those who were 1-2-3 less than 56 days back @ 8-1 or lower ( no Lasix ). 


Race  8



3.Factor It In

Another affair where our listed troika should suffice in this year's rendition of the Fall "Highweight", where the steepest impost is a mere 132 ( sighhhhhhh.... ) pounds.  #7 RUNNINSONOFAGUN was all out to win the Bod Ruler, and aside from owning a three for four ledger over this oval, draws splendidly today. #5 SYNTHESIS got up in time to get his photo taken when taking his initial spin beneath the local seagulls, & has performed admirably in his 3rd off the respite affairs. #6 FACTOR IT IN has that sort of perfect "declining" mark that we've grown to love over the years ( 24:9-2-1 ), as it shows he knows where the finish line is. Would be no surprise. 


Race  9

1.Highest Honors

2.Mooney Love ( Ire )


#1 HIGHEST HONOR down the lane. #6 MOONEY LOVE (IRE) is 3:2-1-0 off a break in the action and got the job done the only time he caught firm going. Can land a share. #4 ASTRONAUT lost by just a honker in his sole "3rd off the bench" experience, and scored in a G2 the only time he went 11 panels. Could be in the thick of things once again.  OFF TURF: 13(MTO)-9-1-2-12  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #9 SOLDIER RISING (GB) fills the bill, as we like our top choice that much.


Race  10



3.Ring Me

#7 ITSALLCOMINTOGETHA has been freshened up a touch since last in action, and as two members of the sire side of the family tree had 9 & 12 wins on the dirt respectively, we're digging this one's chances for today's surface transition. #1 MARIACHI almost hit all the right notes when getting his working papers a month ago, and while this one looms a solid favorite, the inside can be tricky for one lacking much experience. Use caution. #4 RING ME gets in light for today's bow & has been working honestly enough. #9 IS OUR 3RD CHOICE.


Aqueduct               ( Current ):  25-113  ( $171.40 ) Beatable Favorites:     1-4  ( 25% )    Favorites Win %:   40-113  ( 35.4% )( As of Saturday morning )

Graded Stakes      ( Current ):  13-73    ( $97.50 )   Beatable   Favorites:   1-2   ( 50% )    Favorites  Win %:  28-73   ( 38.5% )


Aqueduct                   ( Final ):  65-269 ( $556.50 )  Beatable  Favorites     4-20 ( 20% )     Favorites  Win %:  97-269  ( 36.1% )  

Saratoga                    ( Final ):  82-417  ( $760.30 ) Beatable    Favorites:   7-27( 25.9% )  Favorites Win %:  153-417 ( 36.7% ) 

Belmont                      ( Final ): 88-420   ( $563.10 ) Beatable   Favorites    7-28 ( 25% )    Favorites  Win %: 154-420 ( 36.7% )   

Aqueduct Spring         ( Final ): 34-134   ( $317.10 ) Beatable   Favorites     2-8  ( 25% )    Favorites  Win %: 42-134  ( 31.3% ) 

Aqueduct Winter         ( Final ): 107-438 ( $926.20 ) Beatable  Favorites: 11-40 ( 27.5% )  Favorites Win %: 166-440 ( 37.7% )

All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2021 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  

Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587       ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-22 (All Final):3498-17700 ($29995.30)  Beatable Favorites : 421-1551( 27.1% )Favorite's Win %: 6652-17710 ( 37.6% ) +/-: -15.3%  against a 16.8% takeout

Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 3582-18265  ( $30,814.50 )Beatable Favorites : 436-1618( 27% )  Favorite's Win %: 6662-17954 ( 37.1% ) +/-: -15.6%  against a 16.7% takeout