SaratogaBets Handicapping - Aqueduct Selections and Analysis - 12/8



Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.


Please visit the Old Friends at Cabin Creek website ( by clicking the image to the left ) and consider helping out in these challenging times.

I want to thank those that read my column, and have recently opened up accounts as a result of their fondness for what they see here. If you have any questions at any time, you can reach me here on Disqus, Parler @BrooklynCowboy, or on Twitter @brooklyncowboy1. For those who dig the scene here, and would like to be part of it, registration on our home page is easy, and if you'd like, feel free to include my name in the referral box, and let me know, so I can try and get ya' some cool swag!


Aqueduct - 12/8


Race  1

1.Madame Rose

2.Tonight We Love

3.Frosty Invasion

#6 MADAME ROSE is a $1,000 bred animal who has turned out to be a professional maiden, as that 36:M-4-5 boxscore can testify to, but gets a break in the weight department this afternoon, and believe it or not, comes back off her first true break in the action this afternoon. There's not a lot of speed signed on, so perhaps if she can carry over some of that zip from the best of 184 gate move on 11/11 ( 46 flat ), welllll....  #2 TONIGHT WE LOVE has partaken in the super over her last pair, and exits a race where the lone comebacker scored next out. #1 FROSTY INVASION bested 'Love last time out, & slides in five slots to the wood. 


Race  2

1.Greatest Love

2.Prairie Fire

3.Dat Dares Gold 

We have a pair of solid DRF Formulator statistics completing our exacta selections here, so let's get to 'em directly.  #2 GREATEST LOVE was a re-claim by Charlie back in July for half the 25K price he lost her for just before that, and given the hibernation since, is utilizing the "waiver" option here. Aforementioned shotcaller is 8:4-2-1 with those who were bought 51-433 days back at 24-1 or undah ( $8 x 2 & $11 x 2 ). #1 PRAIRIE FIRE takes the obligatory hike after being snagged for a dime three weeks ago, and Linda Rice ( who amazingly is STILL awaiting final resolution on her license revocation ) owns a 9:3-1-2-2 mark w/first off the claim dirt horses at this level ridden by today's pilot ( less than three fortnights ), w/payoffs of $20, $6 & $8. #4 DAT DARES GOLD is quite the ol' war gal, ain't she? Soon to be nine year old makes her 68th start today, & is still plugging along, having been in the superfecta in 11 of her last dozen. 


Race  3

1.Raining Candy

2.She Caught My Eye


#7 RAINING CANDY is second off the shelf and goes over a a glib surface for just the second time. Meeeeeeeekest selection in a race that's hard to hug. #5 SHE CAUGHT MY EYE has been kept in prison since switching barns in mid October and could perk up. #4 INFRINGEMENT has shown a touch of improvement over each of her last four dirt deals, and barn ( for them ) is having a splendid meet. NOTE: DUE TO A SCRATCH, #6 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.


Race  4

1.Dark Storm

2.Chris and Dave


#1 DARK STORM is in pretty good form over his last pair, but had a claim voided last time out, so right off the bat, it would behoove you to take a gander in the paddock. Having said that, we like that there's no scary drop, and gelding does in fact dig this strip & trip. #3 CHRIS AND DAVE has hit the board in all three starts since being freshened up, and how can you argue with those 52 ITM finishes from 84 afternoon treks to the frontside. #6 TRUCULENT is reacquainted with blinks for today's 2nd off the claim try. NOTE: AS OF 10:27, DUE TO A SCRATCH, #6 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.


Race  5

1.Bourbon Chase



#1 BOURBON CHASE has closed out the exacta ( while immolating some baccala ) in both starts to date, and Pletcher now adds blinkahs in hopes of getting this one over the hump. Being a Practical Joke out of a Curlin mare, he should be able to handle the extra panel. #3 INSPECTOR has been quite disappointing thus far, but is showing an uncharacteristic bullet since last facing the starter, so perhaps they worked out some kinks. One doesn't need to go watch the films of #4 ZAPRUDER's debut to see how bad he was that day when going over the grassy knoll, but is appreciably better bred for the brown, and we see there's a baby "Z" pattern showing from that day, so we'll chunk in. 


Race  6



3.Prince of Pharoahs

#2 SUNDAEWITHSANDY shoots for the hat trick this afternoon, and given the way he has progressed w/each passing sand start ( 30-50-58-58-75-86 ) we'd say it's quite feasible. #4 BALDIZAR is two of two & we'd be Silly McGilly to exclude. #6 PRINCE OF PHAROAHS is 3:1-1-1 in 2nd off the L/O engagements, but given his nibbling tendencies in Ozone Park ( 13:0-4-3 ) we'll keep beneath. 


Race  7

1.Divine Wine

2.Gracefully Wild

3.Mostly Harmless

#4 DIVINE WINE takes the biggest drop in the game for today's second start over a track labeled FST, and even with a win & a claim, the connections stand to lose some bread, so you'd have to think they'll have this one cranked up -- especially with blinkers being affixed for the first time. #2 GRACEFULLY WILD lost by just a half'a length in her sole "3rd off the bench" jammie, and consistent sort deserves your respect. #3 MOSTLY HARMLESS nearly went all the way when going a bit longer at this level two weeks ago, and while we feel it's a misnomer that cutting back an animal like this is the perfect panacea for a score, gal makes sense otherwise. 


Race  8


2.Piece of My Heart

3.Hey Mamaluke

#4 FOUETTE is two of three at today's distance of ground, owns a solid prorated figure from the most recent, and from the trainer stat dept., this outfit is three of five with NYRA based optional dirt equines off sabbaticals of 50 days or less ( ridden by today's jock ), who were 1-2-3 last out. The mutuels for that study were $13 x 2 & $8, and there's a sub category of 2-2 in this zip code. #1 PIECE OF MY HEART ( uncoupled barnmate with the above ) sure is a Steady Betty, as she's hit the super in her last octet. Mare is 3:1-1-0-1 when first to load, but seems to prefer the fringes, so we'll relegate to the underneath spots. #2 HEY MAMALUKE has most definitely been the Pope of the Exacta village throughout her dirt career, as she's been in it for more than half of her 29 engagements; always encouraging to see a jock pay for gas & tolls to come in for a mount.  NOTE: DUE TO A SCRATCH, #5 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.


Race  9

1.Easy Day



#7 EASY DAY was a lively runner up behind Greeley and Ben in a similar spot right here on 11/10, and that runner came back to get his photo taken when next in action, improving in the BSF area by about 2.8%. Even with a possible bounce off the career best fig, should still be in the thick of things late in the game. #5 STYNER is but a length & three quarters of trying to get one for the thumb here, & is one fer two when cutting back from two turns to one. Can't dismiss. #1 O'TROUBLE has been a popular item at the claim box, and new bossman has kept this gelding under lock & key since the October 8th transaction. 3:1-1-1 mark when breaking from the inside stands out, and the 6:3-2-1 ledger in Queens stands out even more; pre-claim/layoff pilot returns, which is something we always dig.  


Aqueduct               ( Current ):  32-160  ( $196.40 ) Beatable Favorites:     1-9  ( 11.1% )  Favorites Win %:   60-160 ( 37.5% )( As of Thursday morning )

Graded Stakes      ( Current ):  13-73    ( $97.50 )   Beatable   Favorites:   1-2   ( 50% )    Favorites  Win %:  28-73   ( 38.5% )


Aqueduct                   ( Final ):  65-269 ( $556.50 )  Beatable  Favorites     4-20 ( 20% )     Favorites  Win %:  97-269  ( 36.1% )  

Saratoga                    ( Final ):  82-417  ( $760.30 ) Beatable    Favorites:   7-27( 25.9% )  Favorites Win %:  153-417 ( 36.7% ) 

Belmont                      ( Final ): 88-420   ( $563.10 ) Beatable   Favorites    7-28 ( 25% )    Favorites  Win %: 154-420 ( 36.7% )   

Aqueduct Spring         ( Final ): 34-134   ( $317.10 ) Beatable   Favorites     2-8  ( 25% )    Favorites  Win %: 42-134  ( 31.3% ) 

Aqueduct Winter         ( Final ): 107-438 ( $926.20 ) Beatable  Favorites: 11-40 ( 27.5% )  Favorites Win %: 166-440 ( 37.7% )

All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2021 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  

Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587       ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-22 (All Final):3498-17700 ($29995.30)  Beatable Favorites : 421-1551( 27.1% )Favorite's Win %: 6652-17710 ( 37.6% ) +/-: -15.3%  against a 16.8% takeout

Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 3582-18265  ( $30,814.50 )Beatable Favorites : 436-1618( 27% )  Favorite's Win %: 6662-17954 ( 37.1% ) +/-: -15.6%  against a 16.7% takeout