SaratogaBets Handicapping - Aqueduct Selections and Analysis - 12/9
  
  

 


Just three chalky winners on a mess of an afternoon, yesterday. 


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.


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Aqueduct - 12/8

 

Race  1

1.Norgay

2.Kitten's Appeal

3.Improper

#5 NORGAY was a gamely runner up when facing substantially weaker at CD last month, and we like the confident hike in class off the trainer switch for today's NY bow. Mild choice in a race with no first draft eliminations. #6 KITTEN'S APPEAL has been beset by back to back layoff lines, but we dig that she closed out the triple in the first of those ( in a race where the top two returned victorious -- improving in the Beyer dept, by an average of 5.5 pts. per. ), and the pre-layoff pilot returns also. #4 IMPROPER has been away for more than seven flips of the calendar, but has partaken in the super in all three starts on the sand, and as the barn has fared quite well with those off of elongated absences, we have no issues with including. 

 

Race  2

1.That Is Key

2.Melting Snow

3.Linny Kate

#6 THAT IS KEY was a visually impressive victress when blasting a similar sort right here 50 days in the rear, and mare drops a tad in the class & weight department for today's followup. Looking solid. #4 MELTING SNOW ( cross entered yesterday, so check the changes ) is just a few days out of jail after being snagged for 16K on November 5th, and gal has that sort of "declining" record that we've grown to love ( 19:7-3-2 ), as it shows she has a schnoz for the line. Four returnees from the last have rung up a cumulative 4:2-0-0-2 boxscore in their next ( two separate ) outings, with an average speed figure improvement of 11.3 pts. per, and note that this one is one of two in 2nd off the shelf jammies. #3 LINNY KATE finds herself at an all time low & is one of two at the trip. 

 

Race  3

1.Moam

2.Riding On a Winner

3.My Delicious

#1 MOAM was an honest runner up when facing 16K foes about three weeks back, and after being purchased that day, takes the mandatory rise up the ladder this afternoon. Gal makes her 3rd start off the bench here, and is an uninspiring selection in a race that leaves a lot to be desired. #5 RIDING ON A WINNER has hit the board in all three starts since returning from the H.W.P. ( Horsewitness Protection Program ), and being out of options in Canandaigua County, lands in a relatively easy spot for her first start at The Big A. Recognize that this miss got mangled in the most recent, and returns toting 11 less pounds. #6 MY DELICIOUS ( uncoupled barnmate with our top choice ) is a notorious nibblah ( 16:1-6-3-2 on the main ), and looks like a logical "unders" candidate. 

 

Race  4

1.John's Protege

2.North Pole

3.Papi On Ice

#3 JOHN'S PROTEGE hasn't been in action since around Eastertime, but was last seen placing against tougher down in Lexington, and is showing a nicely ticked away bullet breeze for today's return. Gelding gets in light, and you should probably take a looksie during warmups. #6 NORTH POLE is slowly beginning to give the impression of becoming "that" kind of maiden ( 8:M-3-5 of late ), but how do you leave him out ?  #7 PAPI ON ICE has partaken in the super in 7 of 9 lifetime, and that's more than enough reason to include vs. these. 

 

Race  5

1.Astral Weeks

2.Forty Comets

3.Midnight Worker

#1A ASTRAL WEEKS had a heartbreaking nose defeat after setting all the splits down in Hallandale Beach on the 28th of October, and while a regression is always possible off an effort like that, we like that he's been given some time to recover off of that, and there's actually a crisp breeze showing as well. #4 FORTY COMETS went seven wide in a nine horse field last time out ( NURSE !! ), but still picked up 12% of the pot, and we like the improved speed shown as well. #9 MIDNIGHT WORKER recently showed behind two next out winnahs, and now gets eye cups for the first time. 

 

Race  6

1.Complete Agenda

2.Afjan

3.Spettro

#6 COMPLETE AGENDA has been fairly flat over the last pair, but the Beyer Speed Figures earned are more than decent enough for this allotment, and T.P. properly runs up the white flag here, putting this one up for sale for the first time. Today looks like his best opportunity to right the ship. #2 AFJAN was perfectly spotted when picking up the sheepskin down in Maryland three weeks ago, and as a matter of fact, is now 6:1-2-2 when making that second left on the brown stuff. Solid threat. #1 SPETTRO rounds out the triple. 

 

Race  7

1.Ruvies in Time

2.To a T

3.Speaks for Itself

#8 RUVIES IN TIME was claimed off an honest runner up finish right here 19 days back, and while this may "technically" be a hike in class ( as per the rule after a claim within the 30 day window ), by our estimate, it's only by 5.3 pts., which isn't all that much. Blinks AND a bug are added here, so you pretty much know what the worst kept secret in the room is regarding Jacobsen's intentions. #3 TO A T is a true in and outer ( from a BSF aspect ), and as we can't see a true reason to leave out, we'll chunk beneath. #5 SPEAKS FOR ITSELF was obscenely bet down to 1/5 when returning off a 211 day sabbatical, and ended up setting money ablaze when finishing off the board vs. this sort; chance to make amends, but demand some sort of value, at least. 

 

Race  8

1.Amundson

2.Fire Sword

3.Jalen Journey

#5 AMUNDSON aims for the hat trick today, and as this one is a sensational 4 for 6 beneath the seagulls, we see no reason why it's not feasible. For what it's worth, BOTH comebackers from the last were photogenic when next facing the starter, improving by 8 & 23 points respectively. #3 FIRE SWORD is two fer three in second off the break dirt tries, and aside from being 5 for 11 lifetime, has scored in both starts at today's distance of ground. #6 JALEN JOURNEY is three of four w/a "For Sale" sticker attached to his tooshie, and is three of five at this dx.. There's some back class here that shouldn't be ignored. 

 

Race  9

1.Forty Two Ace

2.Full Moon Fever 

3.Laban M Mo

#8 FORTY TWO ACE has done fine work at this trip and over this strip, and we like that he was a fair amount clear of the 3rd place finisher in his most recent. Meeeeeekest of selections in a nitecap with but one first draft tossout. #1 FULL MOON FEVER is reunited with Mark Hennig ( for whom he's done some decent work ) after earning some nice checks up at the Lakes ( while being claim protected  -- AND keeping his confidence ). Should sit a nice trip. #3 LABAN M MO won his sole start right here over a glib surface, and Jackie has worked well with this one northwest of here.  

 

Aqueduct               ( Current ):  35-169  ( $210.50 ) Beatable Favorites:     1-9  ( 11.1% )  Favorites Win %:   62-169 ( 36.7% )( As of Friday morning )

Graded Stakes      ( Current ):  13-73    ( $97.50 )   Beatable   Favorites:   1-2   ( 50% )    Favorites  Win %:  28-73   ( 38.5% )

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Aqueduct                   ( Final ):  65-269 ( $556.50 )  Beatable  Favorites     4-20 ( 20% )     Favorites  Win %:  97-269  ( 36.1% )  

Saratoga                    ( Final ):  82-417  ( $760.30 ) Beatable    Favorites:   7-27( 25.9% )  Favorites Win %:  153-417 ( 36.7% ) 

Belmont                      ( Final ): 88-420   ( $563.10 ) Beatable   Favorites    7-28 ( 25% )    Favorites  Win %: 154-420 ( 36.7% )   

Aqueduct Spring         ( Final ): 34-134   ( $317.10 ) Beatable   Favorites     2-8  ( 25% )    Favorites  Win %: 42-134  ( 31.3% ) 

Aqueduct Winter         ( Final ): 107-438 ( $926.20 ) Beatable  Favorites: 11-40 ( 27.5% )  Favorites Win %: 166-440 ( 37.7% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2021 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  


Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587       ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-22 (All Final):3498-17700 ($29995.30)  Beatable Favorites : 421-1551( 27.1% )Favorite's Win %: 6652-17710 ( 37.6% ) +/-: -15.3%  against a 16.8% takeout


Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 3582-18265  ( $30,814.50 )Beatable Favorites : 436-1618( 27% )  Favorite's Win %: 6662-17954 ( 37.1% ) +/-: -15.6%  against a 16.7% takeout


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