SaratogaBets Handicapping - Aqueduct Selections and Analysis - 12/10 - Start of our TENTH year here -- having never taken a day off !!
  
  

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Big day for us here today, as we start our TENTH year at Saratoga Bets, Batavia Bets, Empire Bets, and Capital OTB, and it's been a wonderful ride !! 

From "Daddy's Kid" ( of course ) getting us a winner on our first day ( at Gulfstream, watched from a hotel room in Chicago ), to a $206 ON TOP winner ( not sure I've ever seen one higher from a public handicapper ), to having had a flat bet profit over 1,920 races, beating the takeout rate along the way, creating the ever popular "Beatable Favorite" category ( where we've handily bested the grain there as well ), to the most important stat of all -- a flat bet profit for FIFTEEN meets during that time !!

But the best part of all is my relationship with you, the readers, both here, on Twitter, and in person. Your fervent support along the way means the world to me, and I thank you very much for it.

Now -- let's get some winners today !!

Just a reminder that for coverage of the Starlet from Los Al, merfely go back one page.


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 2 - #3 Sa Foradada  Race 6 - #6 Trade Secret


I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.


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Aqueduct - 12/10 - Start of our 10th year here -- having NEVER taken a day off !!

 

Race  1

1.Wave Action

2.Second and Reed

3.Ee Yah

We don't have the best of "Reeds" this race, so tread lightly.  #6 WAVE ACTION begins his working life today, & does such with a few nice morning moves, as well as a decent Tommy for the trip. Note that 5 of 6 members of the family tree won at first asking, and another scored 2nd time out. #4 SECOND AND REED just about doubled his speed fig from the first start to the followup, and the pedigree tells us that there's still some ample room for improvement. #3 EE YAH ( perhaps named after Hall of Fame baseball player Hughie Jennings, who used to shout that phrase during the games https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hughie_Jennings ) has been freshened up a touch, and posted an adjusted 61.2 in his sole start off the pine. 

 

Race  2

1.Dame Cinco

2.Brisky Frolic

3.Gagliano

#5 DAME CINCO is confidently hiked up in class after being claimed from an off the board finish, despite being out of jail since that day. Gelding is reacquainted with the eye cups today, and there's a tidy but tight DRF Formulator stat in play, as Atras is three of five with freshly purchased ( 36-50 days ) female dirt stock right here, and the winners came back $4, $5 & $9. #2 BRISKY FROLIC won by a bunch in her sole start off a respite, & sheds a whopping seven pounds off that tally for the new connections ( something we've always dug ). #1 GAGLIANO comes in off a career best effort, but as this one has historically been a nibbler, we'll keep beneath. BEATABLE FAVORITE: #3 SA FORADADA

 

Race  3

1.Miami Chrome

2.Poppy's Pride

3.Dee Bo

#3 MIAMI CHROME is on a 5:3-1-0 run when being made available for purchase, & is backed by a solid trainer statistic, which has this 17% shotcaller clicking at at 3-7 rate w/ mid level male dirt dashers returning off of absences of less than a month $6, $7 & $9. With Finger Lakes shut down, a familiar pilot takes the helm. #6 POPPY'S PRIDE finds himself at an all time low while also toting the lightest impost of his working life. Take a loooong look during the warmups. #2 DEE BO is on a nice little 7:4-1-1 skein, and digs it here as well. 

 

Race  4

1.Swift Tap

2.Seanan

3.Voliero

Three decent sets of Formulator statistics on tap here, so let's get to 'em in a no frills manner.  #6 SWIFT TAP: Barn is two of five with Aqueduct dirt runners at this level who scored less than 38 days back ( ridden by Franco ). #3 SEANAN has hit the board in 4 of 5, and shedrow is 3 of 7 wit second off the snag dirt stock who crashed the fiesta less than 48 days back ( $4, $15 & $24 ). #7 VOLIERO will be led over by a 6% shotcaller who's two fer seven with first off the claim dirt equines who hit the board < 18 days back ( $7 & $15 ).

 

Race  5

1.Waheel

2.Storm Shooter

3.Ready to March

#1 WAHEEL is a fairly consistent sort who's one of two beneath the seagulls, 3:1-2-1 when breaking from the pine, and consistent sort rates a slight edge in a heat with but one first draft elimination. #9 STORM SHOOTER has been in the money in both starts when last to load, and could perk up with today's drop in class. #2 READY TO MARCH has early zip & gets in with a feather. 

 

Race  6

1.Vallarand

2.Run Up the Score

3.Funwhileitlasted

#9 VALLARAND is a poyfect two fer two in 3rd off the layoff engagements ( $36 & $8 ), with one of those tallies coming right here, and clan is a snappy three of four with female dirt entrants at today's level & locale ( ridden by this jock ), off sabbaticals of 50 days or less ( $6 x 2 & $3 ). #3 RUN UP THE SCORE has fared decently at the trip & strip, and is 2:1-0-1 with a "For Sale" sticker attached to her butt. #2 FUNWHILEITLASTED enters off a placing against slightly weaker & would be no surprise.  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #6 TRADE SECRET is backd by a 1-17 trainer stat in all pertinent categories, so why would we accept favoritism?

 

Race  7

1.Excellent Timing

2.Woo Hoo That's Me 

3.Scilly Cay

#7 EXCELLENT TIMING is two for two off "true" fast track starts off the bench, ( with one of those coming when breaking from the outside ) and connections are 3-7 with Aqueduct optional dirt runners off absences of 53-105 days ( $3, $7 & $5 ). #4 WOO HOO THAT'S ME is a fairly consistent sort who gets some class relief along with a blinker addition for the first time. Deserving fave, but beware of the bounce off the top number to date. #2 SCILLY CAY is 3:1-0-1 when up for grabs, has done fine work in this zip code, & is still kept WELL above the purchase price from two back. Logical. 

 

Race  8

1.Hot Peppers

2.Beguine

3.Disco Ebo

#2 HOT PEPPERS is four of six over a glib surface, two of two off a break in the action ( with one of those wins NOT overlapping ), and trainer has won with both of his ungraded dirt animals off L/O's of 51-157 days who are eschewing the miracle drug ( $4 & $15 ). Looking good in the Garland of Roses. #7 BEGUINE has blinkers added off a big time effort, and found the line first the only time she broke from the outside. We like this one's ability to send or rate just a bit. #6 DISCO EBO shoots for the hat trick today, & it's well within reach at 20-1 given her 6:4-0-0 ledger at today's distance of ground.

 

Race  9

1.Quick Chaos

2.Little Luca

3.What's Up Bro

#3 QUICK CHAOS hasn't been in action since the summer, but was doing decent work back then, and we're assuaged by the fact that Abreu is 7:3-1-2 with AQU based dirt horsies NOT getting the "Big L", off hibernations of 53-197 days. There's a sub category of 2 for 3 w/ those at this level, and 1 for 1 w/ those ridden by today's helmsman. #5 LITTLE LUCA popped & stopped in the bow, and has since received the unkindest cut of all, while returning with a bug assigned. Some scorching works on display, so watch out, suckahs !  #6 WHAT'S UP BRO gets off the rail today, and that can often be a big angle with a second time starter. 

 

Aqueduct               ( Current ):  36-178  ( $216.50 ) Beatable Favorites:     1-9  ( 11.1% )  Favorites Win %:   67-178 ( 37.6% )( As of Saturday morning )

Graded Stakes      ( Current ):  13-73    ( $97.50 )   Beatable   Favorites:   1-2   ( 50% )    Favorites  Win %:  28-73   ( 38.5% )

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Aqueduct                   ( Final ):  65-269 ( $556.50 )  Beatable  Favorites     4-20 ( 20% )     Favorites  Win %:  97-269  ( 36.1% )  

Saratoga                    ( Final ):  82-417  ( $760.30 ) Beatable    Favorites:   7-27( 25.9% )  Favorites Win %:  153-417 ( 36.7% ) 

Belmont                      ( Final ): 88-420   ( $563.10 ) Beatable   Favorites    7-28 ( 25% )    Favorites  Win %: 154-420 ( 36.7% )   

Aqueduct Spring         ( Final ): 34-134   ( $317.10 ) Beatable   Favorites     2-8  ( 25% )    Favorites  Win %: 42-134  ( 31.3% ) 

Aqueduct Winter         ( Final ): 107-438 ( $926.20 ) Beatable  Favorites: 11-40 ( 27.5% )  Favorites Win %: 166-440 ( 37.7% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2021 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  


Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587       ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-22 (All Final):3498-17700 ($29995.30)  Beatable Favorites : 421-1551( 27.1% )Favorite's Win %: 6652-17710 ( 37.6% ) +/-: -15.3%  against a 16.8% takeout


Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 3582-18265  ( $30,814.50 )Beatable Favorites : 436-1618( 27% )  Favorite's Win %: 6662-17954 ( 37.1% ) +/-: -15.6%  against a 16.7% takeout


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