SaratogaBets Handicapping - Belmont Selections and Analysis - 6/8


We closed out last week in decnt fashion, with two winners ( $42 & $5 ), a $23 cold Quinella, and an Ice Cold $20 Exacta.

Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.


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Belmont - 6/8


Race  1

1.Amidst Waves


3.Dr. Ray D.

We start out Belmont week with a wide open opener, and will give a slight nod to #3 AMIDST WAVES got smacked around at the onset when beginning her working life down in Hallandale Beach last month, and was taken seven wide in a six horse field that afternoon. ( NURSE !! ). Filly switches over to the green for today's followup, and happens to be nicely bred for the stuff. Sire was a perfect three for three when dashing on the synthetic, and the maternal grandsire was 5:2-3-0 when doing the same. We feel that bodes well for today's turf bow, and there's a huge jock upgrade in store as well. #2 BEADS ( Out of 'Bourbonstreetgirl' -- ya get it ? ) gets her working papers this afternoon, and is a full to Screamin' By, who went 11:3-0-4-1 sprinting on the sod, banking nearly 150K in that regards. #6 DR. RAY D. has been working honestly enough for today's lid lifter, and is a half to a graded stakes placed turf dasher.  OFF TURF: 1-2-1A-3-6


Race  2


2.Chi Town Lady

3.Movie Moxy 

#3 MOSIENKO by no means disgraced herself when being tossed into the deep end of the pool last out, splitting the field at 22-1, while showing some decent dash early on. Mare has done well at this trip & over this strip, has won five of her last seven outside of stakes company, and Lalman is a delicious 7 for 15 with sand stock off breaks of 10-49 days ( 12-1 or less ), with an R.O.I. of $5.09. There's a sub category of 1-1 w/ today's pilot, and you may actually get some decent value here. #2 CHI TOWN LADY is the clear class of this field, and completed the exacta the only time she was in a 2nd off the layoff spot on the brown stuff. #4 MOVIE MOXY just won her first and only start at Big Sandy, and that's reason enough to include. 


Race  3



3.St Anthony

#2 DYNADRIVE gets some class relief after finishing out of the superfecta in his last quartet vs. graded competition, and it's worth noting that he won both starts just prior to the aforementioned skein. Gelding owns a 5:2-1-0-1 ledger on the Inner Turf Course, is one of two in "true" second off the bench attempts on the gramma, and from a tiny sampling, barn has won with both of their locally based optional turfers going long, that missed the $ less than 66 days in the rear ( 10-1 or beneath ). Timid choice in a race with no first draft tossouts. #4 COMMANDEER is 2:1-0-1 in 2nd starts off a respite, and barn plays musical jockeys once again w/ today's switch to Irad. #5 ST ANTHONY ( who died 792 years ago next Tuesday ) was known as the "Marriage Saint", and for some info on him, go to this link . As for the equine, he's 3 of 14 and owns the ability to rate or send just a bit.  OFF TURF: 1-7(MTO)-2-6-3


Race  4

1.Good Sam

2.Midnight Stroll

3.Missy Greer

#4 GOOD SAM was a convincing victress in both start to begin her career last annum, but disappeared from the worktab for five months after that, so either she went through some growing pains, or is just being moved along slowly. Filly is by FAR the youngest in this grouping ( something not to be taken lightly ), but totes the lightest impost of her career, and gets the miracle drug for the 1st time. Sky's the limit. #5 MIDNIGHT STROLL is 3:1-0-2 at today's distance of ground, and can pick up a slice. #3 MISSY GREER hasn't been seen since New Year's Eve Eve, but has completed the tri in both start off the pine, and can do such once again beneath Louie, who he's done good work for. 


Race  5

1.Parnac ( Fr )

2.Be Up

3.Strikingly Spun

#7 PARNAC (FR) lost by less than a length in her lone "second off the break" jammie, is one of three over firm going, and gets one of the best riders in the country along with a re-administering of Lasix. Meeeeeeeek pick in yet another toughie. #4 BE UP has won two of her last three, and the runner up from the most recent returned victorious when next in action, improving in the speed figure dept. by about 8.1%. Gal figures, but has been known to toss in the occasional clunker at some weird times. #6 STRIKINGLY SPUN has taken to the lawn like a Toro lawnmower, losing by only a length and a half at 18-1 when first going over the stuff, then following that up with a Louisville tally a month later. Sensible, but is a bit beholden to some decent splits early on.  OFF TURF: 6-8(MTO)-2-3-7


Race  6

1.Dads Good Runner

2.Built to Last


#5 DADS GOOD RUNNER has been just that in 2023, as the 4:1-1-2 boxscore belies, and has fared well in both starts at BEL also. From a Formulator point of view, 6% shotcaller ( who's lost 29 in a row ) has an unblemished 3-3 mark with dirt stock that were claimed < 38 days back off an ITM placing ( 22-1 or below ). The winners in that survey returned $10, $12 & $5, and little known jock got his first local win a couple'a weeks back. Demand some good odds. #6 BUILT TO LAST is backed by a tiny but tight trainer stat, which shows Papa Englehart at two for two with Belmont based at this level ( 17-1 or undah ), with mutuels of $3 & $22. #3 TURNSANDCONDITIONS rounds out the top three. ( Which is another way of saying "It's 2:17 in the morning, and like Jackson Browne, we are running on empty." ) 


Race  7


2.After Five

3.Maxwell Esquire

#1A RUNNINGWSCISSORS shoots for the hat trick today, and despite this one making his 50th start ( while banking more than half'a mil in the process ) is still eligible for today's condition. Gelding is one of two on the Inner, three of six going 3/4's, and Jacobsen has won with both of his optional sod sprinters who found the line first less than 68 days back ( $16 & $5 ). Slight advantage in yet another deal with none eliminated upon our first inspection. #7 AFTER FIVE is another who aims for his 3rd straight win in this spot, & Quick scored with his only turf dasher who won 31-67 days in the rear ( $23 ). #3 MAXWELL ESQUIRE hasn't been in action since the fall, but is 3:1-0-1 after a sabbatical, and likes it here.  OFF TURF:12(MTO)-5-8-6-4  NOTE: AS OF 11:32 P.M. WEDNESDAY, WE ARE FLIP FLOPPING OUR TOP TWO SELECTIONS.


Race  8

1.Girl Trouble

2.Chocolate Gelato

3.L Street Lady

#6 GIRL TROUBLE got her confidence back with a wire to wire win when dancing with Joyzee breds down at The Shore 26 days back, improving her overall mark to a solid "declining" 11:5-3-2. Gal often takes some pounding at the windows, and Bobblehead comes in for a clan that's 4 of 11 with ungraded sand stock ( no juice ), who were victorious less than 50 days ago @ 14-1 or less. Sensible selection. #4 CHOCOLATE GELATO got destroyed in the Breeders' Cup, and has been given ample time to sort things out since, for a barn who knows how to have 'em prepped for the comebackers. #7 L STREET LADY overcame a tardy onset to the return to outrun her odds in a big way, when showing just south of 50-1. Gal put forth a solid effort the only time she was last to load, and can land a share vs. these. 


Race  9

1.Venencia ( Fr ) 

2.Revalita ( Fr )


#1 VENENCIA (FR) bested a dozen others when beginning her working life in Chantilly ( a race where the runner up picked up the lion's share next time out ), and after being given some time off, overcame a slow start to grab 10% of the pot down in Lexington in her N.A. debut. Gal is backed by a decent trainer stat which has Brown at 4 of 6 with Elmont based turfers going long ( no wonder drug ) at this level off L/O's of 9-67 days  ridden by Irad. The payoffs for that study were $8, $13, $3 & $9, and should save all the ground. #4 REVALITA (FR) ( uncoupled barnmate w/ the above ) has done fairly well since arriving in this great country, and makes her 3rd start off the bench for an outfit that's a tidy 2 for 4 with runners fitting all this exact criteria ( 16-1 or underneath ) who were ITM < 68 days back ( $3 & $13 ). #5 SPANSIVE has went coast to coast like butter and toast in both afternoon treks to the frontside, and The Toddster is two fer four with BEL based graded entrants ( who are not getting the big "L" ) going long on the lawn after having won 1-52 days in the past at 9-1 or less ( $3 & $19 ).  OFF TURF: 7-3-5-2-8


Race  10

1.Robyn and Eli 

2.Red Butterfly

3.April First ( AE )

#5 ROBYN AND ELI has an hellacious journey when losing by only a half the only time she had a "For Sale" sticker on her tush, has placed in both dashes on the Widener, and shedrow has a near unblemished 4 for 5 record when giving their turfers the biggest plunge in the game ( beneath the 68 day watermark ) who are on Lasix ( $4, $12, $7 & $5 ). #3 RED BUTTERFLY is another on the dropdown, and is a factor if sound or fully cranked up. #6 APRIL FIRST (AE) needs a lot of luck to make it over to the races, but should that come to bear, would be toting along a turf mark that has improved over time.  OFF TURF: 2-4-6-8-10   NOTE: AS OF 11:36 P.M. WEDNESDAY, WE ARE FLIP FLOPPING OUR TOP TWO SELECTIONS.


Belmont:            38-188 ( $273 )    Beatable  Favorites:  7-23 ( 30.4% ) Favorites Win %: 74-188 ( 39.4% )   ( As of Thursday morning )

Graded Stakes:  9-31    ( $75.90 ) Beatable  Favorites:  N/A                  Favorites Win %:  8-28    ( 28.6% )


Aqueduct Spring ( Final ): 29-154  ( $236.10 ) Beatable Favorites:   1-3 ( 33.3% ) Favorites Win %:  58-154 ( 37.7% ) 

Aqueduct             ( Final ):97-370  ( $639.10 ) Beatable  Favorites: 9-24( 37.5% )  Favorites Win %:  139-370 ( 37.6% )

All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2022 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  

Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568           ( $819.20 ) Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-23 (All Final):3690-18492  ($31,342.90) Beatable Favorites : 435-1602( 27.1% )Favorite's Win %: 6970-18595( 37.5% ) +/-: -15.2%  against a 16.8% takeout

Cumulative Stats      (All Final): 3774-19120 ( $32,155.50 )Beatable Favorites : 450-1668( 27% )   Favorite's Win %: 6980-18809( 37.1% ) +/-: -15.9%  against a 16.7% takeout