SaratogaBets Handicapping - Belmont Selections and Analysis - 6/10 - Belmont Stakes Day


Happy Belmont Day, everyone !!

Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 8 - #4 General Jim

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.


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Belmont - 6/10 - Belmont Stakes Day


Race  1

1.Roman Goddess 

2.Accept the Outcome ( Ire )

3.Oolong Hai ( Ire ) 

#3 ROMAN GODDESS was a'stumblin & a'bumblin at the onset of her return off a four month sabbatical to lose by only 4 lengths at Aqueduct last month, and switches from a nee journeyman to one of the best in the game this afternoon. FAT 362 turf Tommy tells us there's ample room for improvement, and we have no qualms with taking a shot at 12-1. #5 ACCEPT THE OUTCOME (IRE) displayed solid improvement from her first start to the followup, and barn enlists the services of their go-to rider this afternoon. Obvious factor. #4 OOLONG HAI (IRE) ( a type of Japanese Iced Tea ) has hit the board in three of four, and pre-layoff pilot returns, which is something we like to see.  OFF TURF: 7-3-4-6-2


Race  2


2.Royal Dancer

3.Lisa's Vision

#3 SIKUM owns a crisp 9:2-3-0-3 record in turf dashes over firm ground, has gotten the hell beaten out of her in her recent pair, and according to DRF Formulator, Camejo is a snazzy 5 of 7 with female sod sprinters at this level at 20-1 or less ( < 54 days ), with payoffs of $5 x 3, $3 & $14. There's a sub category of 3-3 with those who finished OFF the board last time out, and you may get some decent value here, given some bigger J/T names signed on. #7 ROYAL DANCER exits a key race in which eight returnees have amassed a cumulative 8:3-0-1-2 mark in just FIVE sui generis events, with an average BSF improvement of 3.4 pts. per; eligible to move forward in today's second off the shelf jammie. #6 LISA'S VISION exits the same race as Dancer, and gets Flavah Flav in the irons.  OFF TURF: 3-11-2-1-8  NOTE: AS OF 9:44, DUE TO A KEY LATE SCRATCH, OUR SELECTIONS WILL BE 6-7-1.


Race  3

1.Elite Power 

2.Today's Flavor


This is our favorite kind of race -- a 6 1/2 or 7 furlong graded event on the dirt, and although it's a truncated grouping, it's highly competitive with but one first draft elimination.  #4 ELITE POWER sure has morphed into quite the useful animal, hasn't he ?  A winner of seven straight ( at five different tracks & three different distances ) -- the last three of which having come without the wonder drug -- and is also 3:2-0-1 off the bench. According to DRF Formulator, Mott is a saucy 8 of 10 with dirt equines at this level who won more than 50 days back ( no juice ), with a healthy ROI of more than five clams in that regards. #1 TODAY'S FLAVOR has oodles & oodles of early zip, and while he has won five of his last six, is oh-fer-five when breaking from the innermost two slots, so we'll keep beneath. #5 STROBE gave a decent account of himself when placing directly in front of a next out winnah when being tossed onto the deep end of the dance floor for the first time, and has yet to miss an exacta, so we'll include. 


Race  4

1.Romantic Gamble 

2.Luni Sima


#3 ROMANTIC GAMBLE came along decently to secure 11% of the pot when going a panel shorter last out, and just may dig today's initial 7F dirt deal. 13% clam nearly triples that batting average ( 4-11 ) with those going short on the sand who were 1-2-3 less than 43 days in the past ( no miracle drug ), w/ payouts of $3, $4, $6 & $19. #10 LUNI SIMA has been a part of the super in 14 of her last 15 calls to the post, and that's more than enough reason to chunk in. #8 ASMODEUS was unable to fly for more than half'a mile in the Peter Pan, but has never disgraced himself outside of stakes company, and J/T combination have done excellent work in tandem -- even showing a flat bet profit. 


Race  5



3.Filo Di Arianna ( Brz ) 

#6 EMMANUEL is three for six on the gramma, and T.P. wipes the competition clean with males going long on the lawn at this level ( not getting the big "L" ), off sabbaticals of three fortnights or less, ridden by Irad ( 15-1 or undah ). He's 13:8-1-2 w/ that sort, and has a whopping $4.82 return on investment as well. #3 MACKINNON is three of five at today's distance of ground, and you're getting Chad & Joel at double digit odds. #7 FILO DI ARIANNA (BRZ) immolated some baccala when returning off a hibernation to complete the exactor nordes de lignes, but the 1st & 4th place finishers from that heat go their Polaroids taken when next seen, bettering themselves in the numbers dept. by an avg. of 5.5. pts. per.  OFF TURF: 6-2-1-4-8(MTO)  NOTE: AS OF 11:31, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #2 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.


Race  6

1.Bright Future



#4 BRIGHT FUTURE makes his 3rd start off the break today, and the way he came along late in the game on Derby weekend ( along with the top solid pedigree ), tells us that he should be able to handle today's initial two turn try just fine. Slight edge in a race that SHOULD have been renamed the "Secretariat Handicap" for the 50th anniversary of that one's historic triumph. #7 WARRANT sat this trip ( albeit vs. slightly weaker ) down in Louisville on the 3rd of May, and as this chestnut chap has missed the super but once, who are we to leave out of the mix. #5 NEXT is two for three in 2nd off the L/O engagements, and we find it encouraging to see the Macho Man come along for the ride. 


Race  7

1.Secret Oath

2.Search Results

3.Pass the Champagne

#4 SECRET OATH is an extremely consistent sort who owns a nice "declining" 8:4-2-1 ledger at today's dist., and has also handled herself decently beneath T-Gaff. Hard to knock, but by no means a cinch. #2 SEARCH RESULTS has tossed in but one clunker in her career, and is a poyfect two of two in 2nd off the shelf jamborees, with one of those tallies coming over Big Sandy -- a joint she appears to dig. From a trainer stat POV, Brown delivers with locally based female dirt runners at today's level who were 1-2-3 20-50 days in the rear, with a $3.00 return on investment as well. #1 PASS THE CHAMPAGNE was a visually impressive victress when breaking from the wood for the first time in the Ruffian, and is eligible to fare even better in today's "true" third start off the L/O. 


Race  8

1.Arabian Lion

2.Gun Pilot

3.New York Thunder

We'll blast off in today's Woody Stephens with the ollll', 3-2-1 tri...  #3 ARABIAN LION went all the way in the Sir Barton on the 20th of May, capping off back to back career best efforts, and now cuts back to one turn, where he's three parts of a length shy of being two fer two. Colt makes his 3rd start off the layoff for lidocaine Bob, who's 3 for 4 with those going short on the sand at this level, who won less than 42 days ago @ 8-1 or beneath ( $5 x 2, $3 & $2 ) ridden by Johnny. #2 GUN PILOT by no means disgraced himself when finishing 5th of 13 in the Pat Day Mile ( Adj. 95.1 ), and as that race was the 2nd straight time he showed improvement going one turn, who knows where his ceiling is in that regards. There's an old adage to never discount an undefeated runner at more than 4-1, and #1 NEW YORK THUNDER definitely fills that bill, especially has he's much better bred for the dirt than the synthetic and poly he's been plying his trade on.  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #4 GENERAL JIM  NOTE: AS OF 9:48, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #10 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.


Race  9

1.Air Force Red

2.Casa Creed

3.Arrest Me Red 

#3 AIR FORCE RED set money ablaze when being bested at 1 to 2 in Arcadia, but won half of his six sod sprints over firm ground prior to that, and from an itty bitty survey, Powell is two of three with those of this ilk who hit the board 35-67 days back ( not getting "The Big L" ), with both winners paying 16 clams. #11 CASA CREED is a sensational 7:3-3-1 in true turf starts off a break, and is just a half length short of owning an unblemished 4-4 mark on the Widener. #8 ARREST ME RED has done very well in third off the layoff scenarios, and although out of form of late, seems to excel at today's trip.  OFF TURF: 5-3-15(AE)-1-4


Race  10

1.Cody's Wish 

2.Dr. Schivel


#1 CODY'S WISH sure has become one hell of a horse -- and one hell of a story -- hasn't he ?  Bay boy doesn't need to take his track with him, has picked up the lion's share in all three Grade One attempts, is five for five when going a flat mile, and has found the line first in all three forays when breaking from the inside four post positions. Obviously, some of those wins overlap, but you get the idea. The only "first" here, is it being his first legit second off the L/O deal. #3 DR. SCHIVEL returned off of more than a calendar respite to go coast to coast against allowance foes at SA, and apart from a crisp win in his first "2nd off the break" attempt, lost by only a schnoz when trying that again in the Breeders' Cup. #6 ZANDON has a boatload of back class and can grind out a share.


Race  11

1.Ottoman Fleet ( GB )

2.Up to the Mark

3.Soldier Rising ( GB )

#4 OTTOMAN FLEET (GB) handled his North American bow with aplomb, in winning the Fort Marcy on this course ( and the first time he set his tootsies over firm ground ). Gelding faces Grade 1 competition for the first time, but Appleby knows a thing or two, and both returnees from that affair came back to finish 1st & 4th in their next starts, w/an avg. Beyer improvement of 8.5 points per.. Looking solid. #8 UP TO THE MARK has just about improved over each outing since being switched over to the verde in January ( 4:3-0-1 ), and it will be interesting to see the tactics employed by the jocks of these two. #5 SOLDIER RISING (GB) is 3;2-1-0 when coming back off a bit of a break, and can plod along for a share.  OFF TURF: 10-4-7-6-2


Race  12

1.Tapit Shoes

2.Angel of Empire


Big race of the day is upon us, and while most eyes will be on a couple of the bigger named entrants, we're digging the prospects of #1 TAPIT SHOES. This higher priced Cox runner ( and higher priced Tapit progeny ) has gone ( from an adjusted point of view ) 66.9 -- 83.7 -- 85.2 -- 94.3 -- 97.9 in each start to date, so right from the get go, who's to say when the upwards trajectory comes to a halt. Longshot draws snugly, and for those looking for a bit of serendipity, Jose Ortiz's lone Belmont win -- came with a Tapit runner. #8 ANGEL OF EMPIRE was a tad overbet for our taste in the Derby, but still came along willingly to pick up 3rd place money. As this runner likes to come from downtown, blinkers are now affixed in a likely effort to keep him a bit more involved early on, and is another that you can put an upwards arrow alongside the speed figures. #6 FORTE was a smart winner in his sole 2X try off a layoff, is backed by a DRF Formulator stat which has the Toddster at 3 for 6 w/ graded dirt stayers ( ridden by Irad ) right here, who won more than 51 days ago ( 5-1 or < ), and while we'll be using, it's just with a hint of trepidation.


Race  13

1.Spirit of St Louis

2.Curly Larry and Mo 


#1 SPIRIT OF ST LOUIS has been freshened up a bit since placing in front of a next out winner at AQU, and from a tiny survey, barn is 2 for 3 with second time routers going on the lawn for the 1st time off L/O's of 58-72 days ( $3 & $5 ). #9 CURLY LARRY AND MO ( cross entered yesterday, so check the changes ) is one of two in non stakes turf routes, but you should probably be asking for a little more than 8-1 in this spot. #12 EXCURSIONNISTE closes out our "Good morning, good afternoon, and good night." day. Get home safely, everyone.  OFF TURF: 2-4-6-8-1


Belmont:            41-199 ( $290.80 ) Beatable  Favorites:  7-23 ( 30.4% ) Favorites Win %: 79-199 ( 39.5% )   ( As of Saturday morning )

Graded Stakes:  9-31    ( $75.90 )   Beatable  Favorites:  N/A                  Favorites Win %:  8-28    ( 28.6% )


Aqueduct Spring ( Final ): 29-154  ( $236.10 ) Beatable Favorites:   1-3 ( 33.3% ) Favorites Win %:   58-154  ( 37.7% ) 

Aqueduct             ( Final ):97-370  ( $639.10 ) Beatable  Favorites: 9-24( 37.5% )  Favorites Win %:  139-370 ( 37.6% )

All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2022 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  

Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568           ( $819.20 ) Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-23 (All Final):3690-18492  ($31,342.90) Beatable Favorites : 435-1602( 27.1% )Favorite's Win %: 6970-18595( 37.5% ) +/-: -15.2%  against a 16.8% takeout

Cumulative Stats      (All Final): 3774-19120 ( $32,155.50 )Beatable Favorites : 450-1668( 27% )   Favorite's Win %: 6980-18809( 37.1% ) +/-: -15.9%  against a 16.7% takeout