SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Del Mar Selections & Analysis - 11/19
  
  

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Nice day for us here yesterday as we got home two winners ( for the 5th straight day----an odd stat ) and one of them drew in off the also eligible list and paid $25--( giving us a flat bet profit til next Friday ). That's always rewarding, because quite often those AE's get overlooked, and when you're doing a column 3-4 days out, it's easy to put them by the wayside.

Additionally, we added a "Beatable Favorite" after the scratches ( remember to hit that "Refresh" button folks ! ), and said runner was off the board.

We tallied up some numbers after the day, and ascertained that over the last 1,001 races ( encompassing NINE different tracks ) we are showing a flat bet profit ! Considering that the writeups are done so far in advance, without knowing how the track is playing or what jocks have stunk up the place in the last 48 hours, we'll take that stat any day. ( Especially considering that this is against a 17% takeout and incorporating races that we downright loathe.

Let's keep the streak going, shall we ?


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


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Del Mar - 11/19

 

Race 1 -

1.Black Tie 'n Tails

2.El Super

3.MeLville

#6 BLACK TIE 'N TAILS tries turf for the first time today, but is a half to a 1 for 3 turf router ( 22K ) and sire Vronsky was 1-4 dancing that dance. New trainer looks to capitalize on this one's speed by naming a 7 pound bug, and we'll be screaming "wire" from the get go. #10 EL SUPER is similar to the above with the new shot caller and early zip. Obviously this one is more learned than the above, but is 0-2 here and draws the outside. I can't see the name of the #1 "MELVILLE" without thinking of the restaurant upstairs from 'Cheers'. I've enclosed a hysterical clip from when they were bought out by yuppie owners and Norm loses his stool ! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pdyf9ZRjda8 Anyway, as for the horse, he's 1 for 3 when breaking from the wood and has hit the board in half of his turf attempts.  OFF TURF: 6-1-4-7-8

 

Race 2 -

1.Quorum of Joy

2.Swiss Cheese

3.Finallygotabentley

#7 QUORUM OF JOY has beaten but three home in his last two, but in fairness the last was on the lawn ( his first try ) and at a much higher level. The penultimate outing was just a 1 3/4 length defeat, and this barn doubles their win rate when cutting back while making this surface switch after 20-40 day breaks ( off the money in last ). Said winners came back $6, $7 $3 & $23, and what makes this even a more interesting play is that 16% clan is 32% with low level runners, so in reality the stat we just gave you may prove to be even higher. There are very few holes in #5 SWISS CHEESE's game, given the 8 fer 10 ITM rate ( excluding the pre and post layoff starts ) as well as Hess being 5:3-0-1 with low level dirt dashers that hit the board 19-37 days back ( 18-1 or less ). #3 FINALLYGOTABENTLEY has been claimed in three straight and crashed the tri in 19 of 33 on the sand.

 

Race 3 -

1.Little Juanito

2.Fielder

3.Kenzou's Empire

#8 LITTLE JUANITO has a couple of nice moves, is decently bred, and draws well. Timid selectiion in a wide open affair. #5 FIELDER debuts for Bob Baffert's Baked Beans today, and while that always merits an extra looksie, this $180K auction purchase has a lowish 263 Tommy for the dx.; mixed signals. #4 KENZOU'S EMPIRE had a troubled debut and deserves another shot against these.

 

Race 4 -

1.Cedar Rapids ( AE )

2.Odyssey Explorer

3.Swinging Star

#11 CEDAR RAPIDS (AE) needs one to get out in order to get in, but closed nicely in last despite being bottled up, and may move forward with some clear sailing. #6 ODYSSEY EXPLORER is another with a propensity for finding trouble, and while we would've liked a jockey change here, we'll include because of the last race fig. #5 SWINGING STAR finished 5th at 20-1 beneath Smith in last, and there's something to be said that A: Smith took that mount & B: That he returns today. For all intents and purposes, this is a good race to pass OFF TURF: 11(AE)-7-2-1-3  NOTE: AS OF 2:36 P.M., DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #2 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race 5 -

1.Mastery

2.Ooper Wallah

3.Bernin Sensation

Today's 5th is the Grade 3 Bob Hope, and for some history on one of the greatest entertainers ever ( who positively LOVED our troops ) who lived to 100 ( ! ) click right here https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bob_Hope ... When you use the DRF Formulator program long enough, you just remember certain stats. Over the last 5 years, Bob Baffert is 5:3-1-1 when removing the blinkers for the first time after a win ( a sign of confidence ). Those five included American Cleopatra, Jazzy Times, Midnight Hawk, Dortmund and Bayern. All of those have earned black type, and it's #3 MASTERY all the way here. #4 OOPER WALLAH showed a baby "Z" pattern in last on the lawn, and is probably better suited for the brown stuff. New trainer today. #2 BERNIN SENSATIION had absolutely no excuse in latest, but we'll give a shot for the minor spoils with a switch to a better "send" jockey today.

 

Race 6 -

1.Liam the Charmer

2.Reflected Star

3.Sawyer's Hill

#7 LIAM THE CHARMER enters today off a 3 1/2 month layoff and the only time that was attempted in the past resulted in a maiden breaking score at Santa Anita. McCarthy does well with optional turf routers in the 35-210 day range ( < 5-1 ) as he's 2 for 3 with 'em ( $4 & $5 ). #3 REFLECTED STAR rallied nicely to finish second behind a next out winner 35 days ago and figures right there once again. #4 SAWYER'S HILL has done well off the bench and is 2 for 3 at the trip.  OFF TURF: 2-6-4-9-11

 

Race 7 -

1.Match Play

2.Lookin At Mossy

3.Bobby Abu Dhabi

#8 MATCH PLAY hasn't missed a workout yet and has been doing really well when seen in the mornings. Connections are 5:3-1-0 with runners fitting ALL of this EXACT criteria ( right down to the odds bracket ) and show a $4.08 ROI with those winners. 376 Tomlinson # helps matters as well. #4 LOOKIN AT MOSSY showed improved speed on the stretchout in most recent, and ended up a game and clear second that afternoon. 9% clan is 8:2-1-2 with maiden special weight dirt sprinters that hit the board in last & are lower than 16-1 today ( $9 & $6 ). #9 BOBBY ABU DHABI was purchased at auction for more than 22 times the breeding price, draws well, and has a couple'a bullets on display. Logical.

 

Race 8 -

1.Wanstead Gardens

2.Play Hard to Get

3.Papacoolpapacool

Tough race to embrace. #8 WANSTEAD GARDENS lost by only three lengths at 58-1 in the Grade 2 John Henry back on 10/2, and positively adores it here as evidenced by the 3 for 7 local mark in comparison to being 1-11 elsewhere; 3 for his last five against non-stakes foes. #1 PLAY HARD TO GET is another who digs the local scenery and had completed the exacta in two straight before being given a freshening. #3 PAPACOOLPAPACOOL finished directly behind 'Get in the last two, and being that one is twice the odds of 'Cool, why not put them in the same positions today ?  OFF TURF:4-6-1-5-9

 

Race 9 -

1.Turf Club Queen

2.Lady Priscilla

3.Miss Napper Tandy

In an uninspiring finale, we'll give the most tepid of nods to the #3 TURF CLUB QUEEN. Six year old mare is slowly approaching that "professional maiden" category, however after four consecutive starts toting 124 pounds, she gets in light today with a bug assigned and when you factor that in with the early zip.... Oh yeah, Wicker is "the man" with maiden claiming dirt dashers at 24-1 or less ( 40-80 days ) as he's 3:2-1-0 with those ( $3 & $4 ). #2 LADY PRISCILLA is a longshot for sure, but gal's 3rd odd the L/O today ( a scenario she's never had ) and a decent % rider hops aboard. #10 MISS NAPPER TANDY is another who's fleet afoot ( like our top choice ) that's making her third start off the bench ( like our secondary selection ). I like today's post, which may enable her to relax a little more, but man, this one was bought at auction for just a grand, which kinda says all you need to know about this deal.

 

Del Mar         ( Current ):          10-43  ( $133.00 )  Beatable Favorites     3-13  ( 23.1% ) Favorites Win %     10-43  ( 23.3% )


Breeders' Cup     ( Final ):          3-22     ( $30.20 )   Beatable Favorites:     2-4   ( 50.0% )  Favorites Win %     4-22   ( 18.2% )

Keeneland          ( Final ) :        29-159  ( $297.80 )  Beatable Favorites:     5-18 ( 27.8% )  Favorite's Win %   61-159 ( 38.6% ) 

Kentucky Downs ( Final ):           11-50   ( $66.00 )  Beatable Favorites:      0-4  (  0.0% )   Favorite's Win %    18-50 ( 36.0% )

Del Mar             ( Final ):          56-331 ( $508.60 )  Beatable Favorites:    11-31 ( 35.5% )  Favorite's Win %  121-331 ( 36.6% )

Travers Day       ( Final ):            1-13  ( $16.80  )   Beatable Favorites:      0-1   ( 0.0% )   Favorite's Win %      6-13   ( 46.2% )

Santa Anita Stats(Final ):          87-320 ( $891.00 )  Beatable Favorites:     8-30  ( 26.7% ) Favorite's Win %   108-320 ( 33.8% ) 

Arlington Stats   ( Final ):           2-9     ( $29.00 )    Beatable Favorites:      0-1  (  0.0% )   Favorite's Win %      2-9    ( 22.2% )

Belmont Stats    ( Final ):           2-13   ( $14.00 )    Beatable Favorites:      0-1  (  0.0% )   Favorite's Win %      4-13   ( 30.8% )

Pimlico Stats      ( Final ):           3-14   ( $13.00 )    Beatable Favorites:      0-0  (  0.0% )   Favorite's Win %      6-14   ( 42.9% )

Churchill Stats    ( Final ):           2-27   (  $5.50  )   Beatable Favorites:      2-6  ( 33.3% )   Favorite's Win %    10-27   ( 37.0% )

Keeneland Stats  ( Final ):         28-150 ( $228.20 )  Beatable Favorites:    5-15  ( 33.3% )   Favorite's Win %    57-150 ( 38.0% )

Gulfstream Stats ( Final ):       173-918 ( $1317.00 ) Beatable Favorites: 30-131 ( 22.9% )   Favorite's Win %   339-928 ( 36.5% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2014-2016 Final ): 40-247   ( $372.40 ) Beatable Favorites: 15-41 ( 36.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 85-247  ( 34.4% )  +/-: -24.6% against a 17.0% takeout                              


Poly Tracks 2014-6 (All Final): 85-566     ( $819.20 ) Beatable Favorites : 15-68   ( 22.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 162 -585  ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2014-6 (All Final):1085-5246 ($9,068.50)Beatable Favorites : 174-614( 28.3% ) Favorite's Win %: 1944-5330( 36.5% ) +/-: -13.6%  against a 16.6% takeout


Cumulative Stats (All Final):   1170-5812 ($9,887.70)Beatable Favorites : 189-682( 27.7% ) Favorite's Win %: 2105-5915 ( 35.6% ) +/-: -14.8% against a 16.8% takeout


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