SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Del Mar Selections & Analysis - 11/20
  
  

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Just one lonely score yesterday, but Masterful was just that, and you'll be hearing about this one down the road.


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 1 - #7 Avicii  Race 4 - #7 Papa Mambo


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Del Mar - 11/20

 

Race 1 -

1.Filly on Fire

2.Ryderroo

3.Zuzu's Petals

Very nondescript affair to start out the afternoon... #3 FILLY ON FIRE has hit the super in her last six dirt tries, and ended up in a different barn after her last score ( her 4th barn change from her last seven outings ). New conditioner is 4:3-0-1 with fresh purchases who won off the layoff in dirt sprints ( $5, $10 & $5 ) and we're expecting this gal to give a good account of herself today. #4 RYDERROO has crashed the tri in all three local starts and drops five lb.'s. #1 ZUZU'S PETALS has made the exacta in 6 of 7 attempts from the innermost two slots ( just 5 of 15 otherwise ) and was recently snagged by a "miracle" trainer. Switches back to Quinonez, with whom she's 5:2-1-1, Using.  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #7 AVICII as the barn is 0-8 in all pertinent trainer stats.

 

Race 2 -

1.Radio Silent

2.Lamu

3.Que Chistoso

On our first draft of this race we were able to whittle down this group of nine to just two, and the deciding factor between the duo were extreme formulator stats. #7 RADIO SILENT recently finished second against much tougher, and over the last five years, Sise is 7:4-0-1 with with dirt routers who were 1-2-3 33 to 65 days back ( 6-1 or less ) with those winners returning $4, $13, $7 & $10. #2 LAMU figures from a speed figure standpoint, but this clan is a rotten oh-20 with dirt routers in the 1-37 day bracket. #8 QUE CHISTOSO ( funny or humorous ) as good as any for the show bread.

 

Race 3 -

1.Divine Spark

2.Veiled Heat

3.Radish

#5 DIVINE SPARK was an honest 3rd in the unveiling for Baked Beans, and 2YO that was sold at auction for 20X the stud fee should move up off that effort. #6 VEILED HEAT improved about 10% in the Beyer department second time out but was then sent to the sidelines for a brief respite. Take a gander pre race. #2 RADISH is a sensible garnishment to the top two.

 

Race 4 -

1.Algorhythmic

2.Run Like the Boss

3.Summer Lady

YAYYYY----A TURF SPRINT !!! ( Said me never ) #9 ALGORHYTMIC didn't show much in the last three ( two turf routes and a dirt deal ) but that's to be expected as she's 4:0-0-0 under those conditions. Where her bread is buttered are these lawn dashes, as she's 3:1-1-1 when going one turn on the sod, and with good numbers to boot. Tyler takes over today, and as you know, that's fine by us. #3 RUN LIKE THE BOSS has gone 65-70-72 in her last triad, and done so at increasing odds with each start. Hard to leave out. #1 SUMMER LADY has two placings from as many starts when breaking from the inside two slots ( one of those was right here ) and has hit the board in 1 of 2 T/sprints. Mehhhh....I guess you can use her.  OFF TURF: 5-10(AE)-7-11(AE)-4  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #7 PAPA MAMBO, as we feel he doesn't stand up from an adjusted Beyer standpoint,

.

Race 5 -

1.Ucanthankmelater

2.T.Montana

3.Lyrical Passage

You can thank me later for giving you the winner of the fifth --- #2 UCANTHANKMELATER. Two year old has gotten better and better, culminating with two back to back runner up finishes at S.A. last month, and NOT ONLY THAT ( ! ), but "Brotha' 'o Sleepy is 7:4-2-0 with maiden claiming dirt stayers that were in the money 16-32 days ago ( < 15-1 ). The ROI there was $2.74, and this one is no worse than third here. #1 T.MONTANA ( sorry, I can't give you any 'Scarface' clips here ) has dropped, been chopped, and looks ready to pop. But of course you must forgive the last flop. #5 LYRICAL PASSAGE is another taking the plunge today while also shedding the eye cups. Not hopeless.

 

Race 6 -

1.Dead Easy

2.Moe Candy

3.Well Measured

#3 DEAD EASY is 4:1-1-1 in second off the L/O attempts and this trainer is 4:2-0-1 with second off the bench one turn dirt runners who crashed the tri in last & are < 20-1 today ( $22 & $4 ). Meek choice. #9 MOE CANDY has always been right there, but oh, those layoff lines. The talent is there, but I'd be hard pressed to take a short number on this one. #10 WELL MEASURED won the only time he was entered for a tag, and jeepers---is 3 for 3 at DMR !! Last I checked, that's a good stat. We'll be using in our rollers.

 

Race 7 -

1.Fin de Semaine

2.Bolitar

3.Gone With It

It's only fitting that we side with the #6 FIN DE SEMAINE at the "end of the week", but there's one thing we won't need to translate, and that's this trainer's penchant for moving horses up off the claim. Over the last 60 months, he's 5:3-1-0 with barn newbies in dirt routes ( $3, $6 and $7 ), and aside from that, there are some decent speed figures as well.  #1 BOLITAR earned an adjusted Beyer of 83.5 in lone turf try ( which was also the debut ), and D.O'N is 8:3-1-2 when going brown to green, short to long, with those that were 1-2-3 1 to 2 fortnights ago ( < 12-1 ). The payouts were $3, $3 & $25 and one of my favorite pilots returns. #4 GONE WITH IT ( cross entered Friday ) has early hoof but is a nibblah by nature, as proven by the 16:1-4-6 lifetime ledger; leaving beneath.  OFF TURF: 7-3-9-6-4

 

Race 8 -

1.Gold Rush Dancer

2.Image of Joplin

3.Solid Wager

Today's 8th is named after the famed actor, Cary Grant ( better known on 'The Flintstones' as "Cary Granite ! ). For all you've ever wanted to know about C.G., feel free to peruse right here https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cary_Grant . #7 GOLD RUSH DANCER has done well on turf or dirt, long or short, and has tons of back class. Colt won under identical conditions back in July and rates the nod. #3 IMAGE OF JOPLIN went pillar to post in a cheaper route at Santa Anita 28 days ago and ended up with a new address afterwards. Five year old has that perfect type of "Declining" record that we love to see ( 32:8-2-1 ) as it shows he knows where the line is, and should be prominent early on. #9 SOLID WAGER is anything but, here, but we'll leave in the mix because he's done well locally & at the dist. 

 

Race 9 -

1.Sassy Ashley ( AE )

2. Lauren's Export ( AE )

3.Onzaway

We're really hoping for a couple of the also eligibles to draw into the body of the race, as there are three excellent sets of stats in play here. So without further "to-do", let's get to it... #11 SASSY ASHLEY (AE): Baltas ( on fire this meet ) nearly doubles his normal 19% win rate with maiden special weight turfers on the stretchout ( 23-47 days ) as he's 3 for 8 with said runners, and the payoffs were delicious at $24, $20 & $33 !! #14 LAUREN'S EXPORT: Carla Gaines ( who's number we seem to call on a lot, given her amount of starters ) is 4:2-1-0 w/runners of this type that got top 3 money 16-32 days back & are < 5-1 today ( $10 & $7 ). #10 ONZAWAY: 14% Shirreffs runs the town with mdspwt. turf routers who missed the bread and are > 3-1 & < 9-1 ( 16-32 days ), with the winners coming back $10 & $8.  OFF TURF: 9-10-5-3-1  NOTE: AS OF 1:26, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #5 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Del Mar         ( Current ):          11-52  ( $135.80 )  Beatable Favorites     3-13  ( 23.1% ) Favorites Win %     12-52  ( 23.1% )


Breeders' Cup     ( Final ):          3-22     ( $30.20 )   Beatable Favorites:     2-4   ( 50.0% )  Favorites Win %     4-22   ( 18.2% )

Keeneland          ( Final ) :        29-159  ( $297.80 )  Beatable Favorites:     5-18 ( 27.8% )  Favorite's Win %   61-159 ( 38.6% ) 

Kentucky Downs ( Final ):           11-50   ( $66.00 )  Beatable Favorites:      0-4  (  0.0% )   Favorite's Win %    18-50 ( 36.0% )

Del Mar             ( Final ):          56-331 ( $508.60 )  Beatable Favorites:    11-31 ( 35.5% )  Favorite's Win %  121-331 ( 36.6% )

Travers Day       ( Final ):            1-13  ( $16.80  )   Beatable Favorites:      0-1   ( 0.0% )   Favorite's Win %      6-13   ( 46.2% )

Santa Anita Stats(Final ):          87-320 ( $891.00 )  Beatable Favorites:     8-30  ( 26.7% ) Favorite's Win %   108-320 ( 33.8% ) 

Arlington Stats   ( Final ):           2-9     ( $29.00 )    Beatable Favorites:      0-1  (  0.0% )   Favorite's Win %      2-9    ( 22.2% )

Belmont Stats    ( Final ):           2-13   ( $14.00 )    Beatable Favorites:      0-1  (  0.0% )   Favorite's Win %      4-13   ( 30.8% )

Pimlico Stats      ( Final ):           3-14   ( $13.00 )    Beatable Favorites:      0-0  (  0.0% )   Favorite's Win %      6-14   ( 42.9% )

Churchill Stats    ( Final ):           2-27   (  $5.50  )   Beatable Favorites:      2-6  ( 33.3% )   Favorite's Win %    10-27   ( 37.0% )

Keeneland Stats  ( Final ):         28-150 ( $228.20 )  Beatable Favorites:    5-15  ( 33.3% )   Favorite's Win %    57-150 ( 38.0% )

Gulfstream Stats ( Final ):       173-918 ( $1317.00 ) Beatable Favorites: 30-131 ( 22.9% )   Favorite's Win %   339-928 ( 36.5% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2014-2016 Final ): 40-247   ( $372.40 ) Beatable Favorites: 15-41 ( 36.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 85-247  ( 34.4% )  +/-: -24.6% against a 17.0% takeout                              


Poly Tracks 2014-6 (All Final): 85-566     ( $819.20 ) Beatable Favorites : 15-68   ( 22.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 162 -585  ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2014-6 (All Final):1085-5246 ($9,068.50)Beatable Favorites : 174-614( 28.3% ) Favorite's Win %: 1944-5330( 36.5% ) +/-: -13.6%  against a 16.6% takeout


Cumulative Stats (All Final):   1170-5812 ($9,887.70)Beatable Favorites : 189-682( 27.7% ) Favorite's Win %: 2105-5915 ( 35.6% ) +/-: -14.8% against a 16.8% takeout


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