SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Del Mar Selections & Analysis - 11/26
  
  

KevinCoxItem


Just one loney winner on the afternoon yesterday. That's all I have to say about that.


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 5 - #6 Spooky Woods


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Del Mar - 11/26

 

Race 1 -

1.What We Doing

2.L's Choice

3.Redneck Crazy

How do we feel about today's opener ? Well, this 6-pack brings in cumulative trainer stats of 0-47, so that's how we feel about this race. That being said...#2 WHAT WE DOING had no excuse in most recent, but Beyered between 65 and 73 in his prior quintet and rates an upset chance in this spot. #5 L'S CHOICE has hit the board in 5 of 8 at this trip ( compared to just 1-7 otherwise ) and missed by less than a length in this race three starts back. #4 REDNECK CRAZY has thrown but one clunker in his last seven, and is 7:1-2-2 at Del Mar ( 13:0-3-1 at different venues ). Appears to be just as moderately bred for the first attempt at this routing dx. as going short.

 

Race 2 -

1.Malibu Mogul

2.Glacken Too

3.Alabama Tide

#3 MALIBU MOGUL barely made it across the line when last seen at Los Al, but that was a two turn deal, and he has now finished last in both times attempting such. Been freshened a bit, and returns in a dash ( goodie goodie ). Solid local ledger aids the cause, as does Prat taking the mount. #6 GLACKEN TOO was claimed for a quarter back in August, and if purchased today will show a profit for the connections. That's the goal in this game---get in and get out. Huge edge in the speed figure department make this one kinda had to ignore. #5 ALABAMA TIDE was rolling down the hill nicely on my B-Day, grabbed the lead at the top of the lane, then petered out a bit late. Entered for lowest level yet and is 5 fer 6 ITM at this dist. 

 

Race 3 -

1.Margie's Minute

2.Light Striker

3.Midnight Candy

#4 MARGIE'S MINUTE destroys these. #7 LIGHT STRIKER has a case of "fouth-itis" --- having closed out the superfecta in her last quartet --- but is 4:0-0-3 when breaking from the outside, and the last time the hood was removed she improved about 25% in the adjusted Beyer dept. As a matter of fact, I may reverse an exacta here just as a saver---but only with this one. #2 MIDNIGHT CANDY bested much cheaper in most recent and is 4:2-1-1 at the trip. Sensible "unders" candidate.

 

Race 4 -

1.Richard's Boy

2.Bottle Rocket

3.Eddie haskell

#1 RICHARD'S BOY has been a very jealous fella this year, finishing just behind the winner in four straight coming into this heat. All hope is not lost however, as over the last 60 months, this 18% clan more than doubles that rate with local optional turf dashers who hit the board 23-47 days back, as they're 14:5-1-4 in that regards w/a $4.01 ROI; 2:1-1-0 DMR record helps matters. I've always liked utilizing horses like the #7 BOTTLE ROCKET. You know the type---finished next to last but lost by less than three. Gelding was troubled in the prior outing and the G-3 Eddie D. was better than it looked. Sleepy takes over today. #4 EDDIE HASKELL was as tenacious as a beaver in the 11/13 race, grinding out a win against moderately weaker. We'll leave it to Mario to work out a good trip here.  OFF TURF: 2-1-3-6-5

 

Race 5 -

1.Mistressofthenight

2.Bernina Star

3.Goseecal

#1 MISTRESSOFTHENIGHT put forth an even effort in the first start back against maidens, and actually may have fared a little better had she not had to take up at the halfway marker. Slides in to the wood today and I'm confident my buddy can work out a clean trip. #3 BERNINA STAR is probably a touch better bred for today's first go around two turns ( Harlan's Holiday, Bernardini ) as she is for the sprints that she's been faring well on. Speed to spare and class drop noted. #4 GOSEECAL is another that's fleet afoot, however her zippiness is already proven at today's distance and should probably be tossed into the turkey casserole.  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #6 SPOOKY WOODS has earned a couple of good numbers sprinting, but you should know that the Tomlinson figure going short is 433 and going long it's 397, so we're expecting a slight regression today.

 

Race 6 -

1.Defiant Honor

2.Tiburtina ( IRE )

3.How about Zero

In keeping with this, "The Bing Crosby Season" at Del Mar, today's 6th is named after the famed comedian Jimmy Durante. In honor of one of the most famous noses in Hollywood, I've enclosed video of the closing song to his T.V. show from 1955 where he pays tribute to "Mrs. Calabash...wherever you are." https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yp7r0j4XrO8   How tough is this race? Well we'll tell you. On our first draft ( utilizing adjusted Beyer figures ) we were unable to shave any of the baker's dozen off the top. So now: Step 2 - DRF Formulator. What'd we find there ? Well, only that 12 of the 13 had cumulative trainer stats of oh-lawdy-for-87. The lone gal standing ? That would be the #1 DEFIANT HONOR, as Jimmy Toner is 2 for 5 with turf routers who got the diploma 18-36 days ago & are < 30-1 today. Gal goes outside to in today, and one Hall of Famer takes over for another. #5 TIBURTINA (IRE) is thought of enough to have shipped overseas, and not for the usual reasons of being a bad actress at the gate or having bleeding issues. That's enough reason for us. #7 HOW ABOUT ZERO rounds out the top three. ( Which in this case means that I have nothing clever to say. )   OFF TURF: 1-12-6-4-5

 

Race 7 -

1.Unique Bella

2.Arrowsphere

3.Mannerly

#4 UNIQUE BELLA recovered nicely after an awkward start to secure the place bread in the overture back in June, but therein lies the rub---the extensive layoff. Don't fret, my pet, sometimes these babies have issues early on and there's an excellent stat for "The Master" in play here. Over the last 1,826 days he happens to be 8:4-0-2 with second time starters under these parameters returning off 78-260 day hibernations, The payoffs were $4, $11, $5 and a whopping $97 ! Of course it's encouraging to see the pre-layoff pilot return as well. #8 ARROWSPHERE was bottled up in the career opener, but has worked well since and gets outside today. #7 MANNERLY showed some speed in the debut and finished two lengths behind a next out winner that day. Gal was bought a year ago for 360 big ones so is obviously well meant. 

 

Race 8 -

1.Stylistics United

2.Hi Happy ( Arg )

3.Om

Featured race of the day is the Grade 2 Seabiscuit, and for some history on the Hall of Famer ( who's book is better than the movie ! ) feel free to click on 'dis ! https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seabiscuit We see the race as a wide open affair, so why not side with a longshot ? #3 STYLISTICS UNITED was in the rear with the gear in the lone turf route, but as ardent readers of this column know, I always give a horse two shots over a particular surface, track condition, or number of turns before discounting. That being said, this one's maternal grandsire won his only two turn turf attempt over firm ground, ( the only such attempt by any member in the family tree that I could find ) and although this one did in fact finish last in two grass attempts, he also won one at the tune of $181. #8 HI HAPPY (ARG) hasn't been seen in nearly the length of a calendar, but won 5 of 6 back home ( including two stakes routes on the lawn ) and recent bullet breeze at SLR a very positive sign for a horse that "closes with a rush". #3 OM has cracked the century mark in the Beyer dept. in his last 5, but has been nibbling of late so we'll leave underneath.  OFF TURF: 8-3-4-1-2

 

Race 9 -

1.Sawbuck

2.One I'm Running To

3.Wow It's Hot

We see the finale as a two horse race ( and that these two WILL finish 1-2 in either way ), and while they both exit the same events with similar numbers, we'll give the #5 SAWBUCK a slight edge over the #4 ONE I'M RUNNING TO based on the barn stat of the former. With maiden claiming dirt dashers that hit the board 19-37 days ago ( even money to 3-1 ) they are a jazzy 6:4-0-1 w/a $4.19 ROI ( as well as being 2 for 2 in a sub category with two year olds. #9 WOW IT'S HOT a price play to spice up the tri.

 

Del Mar         ( Current ):          16-77  ( $163.80 )  Beatable Favorites     6-18  ( 33.3% )  Favorites Win %     23-77  ( 29.9% )( As of Saturday morning )


Breeders' Cup     ( Final ):          3-22     ( $30.20 )   Beatable Favorites:     2-4   ( 50.0% )  Favorites Win %     4-22   ( 18.2% )

Keeneland          ( Final ) :        29-159  ( $297.80 )  Beatable Favorites:     5-18 ( 27.8% )  Favorite's Win %   61-159 ( 38.6% ) 

Kentucky Downs ( Final ):           11-50   ( $66.00 )  Beatable Favorites:      0-4  (  0.0% )   Favorite's Win %    18-50 ( 36.0% )

Del Mar             ( Final ):          56-331 ( $508.60 )  Beatable Favorites:    11-31 ( 35.5% )  Favorite's Win %  121-331 ( 36.6% )

Travers Day       ( Final ):            1-13  ( $16.80  )   Beatable Favorites:      0-1   ( 0.0% )   Favorite's Win %      6-13   ( 46.2% )

Santa Anita Stats(Final ):          87-320 ( $891.00 )  Beatable Favorites:     8-30  ( 26.7% ) Favorite's Win %   108-320 ( 33.8% ) 

Arlington Stats   ( Final ):           2-9     ( $29.00 )    Beatable Favorites:      0-1  (  0.0% )   Favorite's Win %      2-9    ( 22.2% )

Belmont Stats    ( Final ):           2-13   ( $14.00 )    Beatable Favorites:      0-1  (  0.0% )   Favorite's Win %      4-13   ( 30.8% )

Pimlico Stats      ( Final ):           3-14   ( $13.00 )    Beatable Favorites:      0-0  (  0.0% )   Favorite's Win %      6-14   ( 42.9% )

Churchill Stats    ( Final ):           2-27   (  $5.50  )   Beatable Favorites:      2-6  ( 33.3% )   Favorite's Win %    10-27   ( 37.0% )

Keeneland Stats  ( Final ):         28-150 ( $228.20 )  Beatable Favorites:    5-15  ( 33.3% )   Favorite's Win %    57-150 ( 38.0% )

Gulfstream Stats ( Final ):       173-918 ( $1317.00 ) Beatable Favorites: 30-131 ( 22.9% )   Favorite's Win %   339-928 ( 36.5% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2014-2016 Final ): 40-247   ( $372.40 ) Beatable Favorites: 15-41 ( 36.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 85-247  ( 34.4% )  +/-: -24.6% against a 17.0% takeout                              


Poly Tracks 2014-6 (All Final): 85-566     ( $819.20 ) Beatable Favorites : 15-68   ( 22.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 162 -585  ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2014-6 (All Final):1085-5246 ($9,068.50)Beatable Favorites : 174-614( 28.3% ) Favorite's Win %: 1944-5330( 36.5% ) +/-: -13.6%  against a 16.6% takeout


Cumulative Stats (All Final):   1170-5812 ($9,887.70)Beatable Favorites : 189-682( 27.7% ) Favorite's Win %: 2105-5915 ( 35.6% ) +/-: -14.8% against a 16.8% takeout


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