SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Del Mar Selections & Analysis - 11/27
  
  

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So we witnessed the most egregious non call by a group of stewards ever in yesterday's 6th race. The race ( two turns on the turf ) came after/during a deluge hit Del Mar. Prior to the horses heading into the first turn, approximately 4-6 drain covers from inside the course blew onto the turf, and no less than NINE of the 13 entrants were compelled to either jump over the ( est. ) 3' x 6' sheets/planks, or swerve around them---impeding other animals ( amount of horses confirmed on the Equibase chart ). Our top pick was on the lead, but was one of the future steeplechase stars, and while in front I actually said "I hope she loses, because this race will be a no contest."

Well lo and behold, the powers that be at Del Mar determined that this was NOT a race that needed to be cancelled, as ( from what I was told by those on social media ) "Less than half were affected by the outcome". So, if that is the actual reasoning, then 6 of the 13 could've tripped and fallen, and that would've been okay ?? This was an absolute disgrace that did NOTHING to protect the bettors. The heat began the late Pick 4 and Pick 3 with over $1.3 million bet on the race ( and approximately $250,000 removed in takeout ). I ( and many, many others ) put in a call to the Del Mar stewards asking for a proper explanation, and in the past, Mr. Cheney has in fact called me back ( as other stewards will do if you're polite and have a legit query ). WE the bettors deserve better, and feel free to follow up with me on any clarification as to what the rationale was.


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 1 - #2 Trixie Topper ( Note: If the track is wet at post time, then there is NO Beatable Favorite here. )


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Del Mar - 11/27

 

Race 1 -

1.Djibouti

2.To B. Ava

3.Really a Gem

Pretty uninspiring way to start the day, but we have some fairly decent Formulator stats to get us through it, so without further a due...  #5 DJIBOUTI broke last from an inside post in the career opener ( always a no no ), but takes the biggest drop in the game today and is in receipt of a more favorable slot. From limited starters, Armstrong flexes a little muscle with second timers under these conditions ( < 20-1 ) off 31-105 day breaks, as she's 2:1-0-1 with 'em ( $12 ). #1 TO B. AVA flopped in the second start off the L/O, but both prior outings were just fine and 8% barn is 2 for 9 with 3rd off the layoff maiden claiming dirt sprinters that missed the board in last ( lower than 20-1 ) with the winners paying $7 & $12. #6 REALLY A GEM is beginning to have the look of a professional maiden, but we'll leave in the mix as 8% Dominguez is also 2-9 with those fitting this criteria who missed the baccala 21-42 days back ( < 8-1 ).  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #2 TRIXIE TOPPER was most likely made the chalk based on her routing numbers, but is going short today, and those figs are a bit more suspect.

 

Race 2 -

1.Magic Taste

2.River Hoss

3.Zarqa Star

This a positively impossible race that I have no read on whatsoever, so tread lightly. #2 MAGIC TASTE has crashed the superfecta in 6 of his last 7 and that makes him a superstar with this bunch. #3 RIVER HOSS has been given a brief freshening after outrunning his odds on the first of October, and pre layoff jock returns which assuages any trepidation about soundness. #5 ZARQA STAR hasn't seen the scene since Super Bowl week, but was in good form at that time and the maturity points given for the last 10 months can negate any "rust" factors in play.

 

Race 3 -

1.Jay Makes Us Laugh

2.Dman Doughty

3.Shades Play

#6 JAY MAKES US LAUGH was marooned in the career opener, but made a decent middle move before flattening out. 370 Tomlinson and a couple of decent moves since will allow us to give this one another chance at a price. #4 DMAN DOUGHTY showed some good speed first time out before fizzling, and despite the last place finish Talamo sticks around. #8 SHADES PLAY is another that's fleet afoot and draws the outside while keeping a feather in the saddle. Watch out for the killer crossover.

 

Race 4 -

1.South American

2.Sonneteer

3.Seau

Two in the morning on Thanksgiving night and I'm watching "The Martian"---I wish I was on a one potato a day ration after today...ooofa!  #3 SOUTH AMERICAN finished in the back half of the field when stretching out to a turf route in last ( and breaking from te 10 hole ), but don't be disheartened, as the speed figure earned was about 15% higher than the prior start. Switches to the sand today, and over the last 1/20th of a century, Drysdale has good numbers with horses making said transition in similar spots; second time Lasix can sometimes be a decent angle. #5 SONNETEER appears to be improving with each start and looks like a solid ITM prospect. #1 SEAU ( apparently named after the late San Diego Chargers linebacker Junior Seau, whose story can be found right here https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Junior_Seau ) has hung up a couple of solid figs in the two sprints to date, and looks to be more than suited for today's stretchout ( Forty Niner/A.P.Indy ).

 

Race 5 -

1.Nuke Laloosh

2.Dr. Crabby

3.True Ranger

#3 NUKE LALOOSH has a local win, owns some strong speed figures, and takes a nice drop. Logical. #7 DR. CRABBY didn't show much in the comebacker, but fired well in his only other second off the shelf try, and the bullet breeze on 11/11 a good sign for one that comes from a bit off the pace. #2 TRUE RANGER is showing three layoff lines after each of his last three starts, and while soundness has been an issue, being distracted by the ladies no longer will be, as he's been gelded since the last. Good to see Van Dyke back on.

 

Race 6 -

1.Offshore

2.Hootie

3.Term of Art

Today's co-feature is the G-3 Cecille B. DeMille, named after one of the founders of the motion picture industry. For some amazing history on the man, I've included his Wiki bio right here https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cecil_B._DeMille as well as a clip from one of his last---and greatest--- flicks, "The Ten Commandments". What scene ? The parting of The Red Sea of course ! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OqCTq3EeDcY !! As for the race, it's an extremely tight affair, and we'll give a tepid nod to the #3 OFFSHORE. Runner didn't show much in an ungraded deal, but was bottled up the whole way, and as we learned Thursday, that's not a spot that Desormeaux seems too fond of. Slides out a bit here & is 2nd time juice. #4 HOOTIE went from zero to hero at 9-1 in the overture and breeding says the sky's the limit. #7 TERM OF ART has progressed nicely since July, and being a Tiznow over a Storm Cat mare, should take to the gramma.  OFF TURF: 6-4-7-5-8 

 

Race 7 -

1.Pleasant as Pie

2.Lemhill Basr

3.Fruity ( Ire )

#1 PLEASANT AS PIE was late to the game when breaking her maiden right outta the box at the age of 4 years and 8 months, then followed that up with a game placing in first try against winners. The wheels have seemingly come off since then, as she's only beaten two home in as many starts ( the most recent of which was a long time ago ). The good news tho, is that Ellis is 4:2-1-0-1 with optional dirt dashers in the 212-424 day area code ( 212 is the old Brooklyn area code ! ). Those winners paid $53 & $3, and you would have to assume that DVD has been getting on this one in the mornings to make sure all is okay. #5 LEMHILL BSAR hasn't been seen since two World Series ago, but Bob Baffert's Baked Beans knows how to get 'em ready, and as this one was purchased for 800 large, you'd have to think they still have hope. #10 FRUITY (IRE) has ran a couple of lemons in the last duo, but is quite popular at the claim box, having changed hands in 3 of his last 4 and is a threat if sound.  NOTE: AS OF 12:44, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #9 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race 8 -

1.Hard Aces

2.Point Piper

3.Blue Tone

Today's 8th is named after the famed California runner ( and Hall of Famer ) Native Diver. A THIRTY time stakes winner ( 6 furlongs to 9 ), this one was beloved out west, and we've not only enclosed his biography here https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Native_Diver , but we've tossed in the MUST READ story about the exhumation of his remains after the closing of Hollywood Park ( His skeleton was amazingly intact ! ) http://www.paulickreport.com/news/ray-s-paddock/dust-to-dust-exhuming-native-diver-from-hollywood-park/ . #1 HARD ACES has tons of back class, a win over the strip, and is 4-11 when breaking from the innermost three slots ( 36% ) compared to 3-25 otherwise ( 12% ). Toss in the fact that conditioner is 9:4-2-1-1 with graded dirt stayers who crashed the tri 15-31 days ago & are < 6-1 ( $2.84 ROI ), and it's 'Aces down the lane. #6 POINT PIPER won a stakes here 15 months ago at 30-1 and is 2 for 3 in 3rd off the shelf attempts. Nicey nice at a pricey price. #5 BLUE TONE digs the ocean air here, as attested by his 3-6 local ledger in comparison to being 3-17 otherwise, and is sensible to make the exotics today.  NOTE: AS OF 4:07, DUE TO THE TRACK BEING MUDDY, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS ARE 6-5-4.

 

Race 9 -

1.Lori's Attitude

2.Fabulous Lady

3.Angel Eria ( Ire )

There are three strong DRF Formulator stats to end the week, so let's get to it... #2 LORI'S ATTITUDE: Carla Gaines is 3 for 6 with maiden special weight turf sprinters that were out of the money 14-84 days ago ( $18, $6 & $10 ). #1 FABULOUS LADY: Eurton is 7:4-0-2-1 with runners of this type that made the tri 28-56 days back & are beneath 10-1 today ( $16 $8, $13 & $6 ). #5 ANGEL ERIA (IRE): 11% barn is 5:2-2-0 w/those fitting 'Lady's criteria ( $9 & $6 ).  OFF TURF: 8-11(AE)-12(AE)-4-3

 

Del Mar         ( Current ):          19-86  ( $174.80 )  Beatable Favorites     6-19  ( 31.6% )  Favorites Win %     28-86  ( 32.6% )


Breeders' Cup     ( Final ):          3-22     ( $30.20 )   Beatable Favorites:     2-4   ( 50.0% )  Favorites Win %     4-22   ( 18.2% )

Keeneland          ( Final ) :        29-159  ( $297.80 )  Beatable Favorites:     5-18 ( 27.8% )  Favorite's Win %   61-159 ( 38.6% ) 

Kentucky Downs ( Final ):           11-50   ( $66.00 )  Beatable Favorites:      0-4  (  0.0% )   Favorite's Win %    18-50 ( 36.0% )

Del Mar             ( Final ):          56-331 ( $508.60 )  Beatable Favorites:    11-31 ( 35.5% )  Favorite's Win %  121-331 ( 36.6% )

Travers Day       ( Final ):            1-13  ( $16.80  )   Beatable Favorites:      0-1   ( 0.0% )   Favorite's Win %      6-13   ( 46.2% )

Santa Anita Stats(Final ):          87-320 ( $891.00 )  Beatable Favorites:     8-30  ( 26.7% ) Favorite's Win %   108-320 ( 33.8% ) 

Arlington Stats   ( Final ):           2-9     ( $29.00 )    Beatable Favorites:      0-1  (  0.0% )   Favorite's Win %      2-9    ( 22.2% )

Belmont Stats    ( Final ):           2-13   ( $14.00 )    Beatable Favorites:      0-1  (  0.0% )   Favorite's Win %      4-13   ( 30.8% )

Pimlico Stats      ( Final ):           3-14   ( $13.00 )    Beatable Favorites:      0-0  (  0.0% )   Favorite's Win %      6-14   ( 42.9% )

Churchill Stats    ( Final ):           2-27   (  $5.50  )   Beatable Favorites:      2-6  ( 33.3% )   Favorite's Win %    10-27   ( 37.0% )

Keeneland Stats  ( Final ):         28-150 ( $228.20 )  Beatable Favorites:    5-15  ( 33.3% )   Favorite's Win %    57-150 ( 38.0% )

Gulfstream Stats ( Final ):       173-918 ( $1317.00 ) Beatable Favorites: 30-131 ( 22.9% )   Favorite's Win %   339-928 ( 36.5% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2014-2016 Final ): 40-247   ( $372.40 ) Beatable Favorites: 15-41 ( 36.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 85-247  ( 34.4% )  +/-: -24.6% against a 17.0% takeout                              


Poly Tracks 2014-6 (All Final): 85-566     ( $819.20 ) Beatable Favorites : 15-68   ( 22.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 162 -585  ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2014-6 (All Final):1085-5246 ($9,068.50)Beatable Favorites : 174-614( 28.3% ) Favorite's Win %: 1944-5330( 36.5% ) +/-: -13.6%  against a 16.6% takeout


Cumulative Stats (All Final):   1170-5812 ($9,887.70)Beatable Favorites : 189-682( 27.7% ) Favorite's Win %: 2105-5915 ( 35.6% ) +/-: -14.8% against a 16.8% takeout


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