SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Del Mar Selections & Analysis - 11/24 - First Post 11:00 A.M. PST - Happy Thanksgiving !
  
  

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Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 4 - #5 Heir of Storm


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Del Mar - 11/24 - First Post 11:00 A.M. PST - Happy Thanksgiving !

 

Race 1 -

1.The All Button

2.Eichel

3.Three Eclipse

#4 THE ALL BUTTON has big figs, appears to be the controlling speed of the race, and drops from optional to conditional claimers. Factor in that this one's lone win came after a cutback, and you have all the makings of a solid selection. #6 EICHEL took two months off after running evenly against slight tougher at Los Al , but the maiden breaker occurred right here after a similar respite, and pre-layoff pilot returns which is always a positive. #3 THREE ECLIPSE was all out to get up by a honker in last, but as that came with the addition of blinkers and off the bench, a bounce is always possible; demand value. 

 

Race 2 -

1. Broadway Nika

2.Jonny's Choice

3.Alex Rossi ( Arg )

#8 BROADWAY NIKA burned some bread when last in action at Los Alamitos, but has fired well fresh and 16% outfit is 3:2-1-0 with low level dirt routers off of 46-92 day respites. Those winners came back $13 & $30, and if you feel the sample size is too small, the numbers become 3 for 10 within the 23-132 day zip code. Encouraging to see Talamo hop on. #2 JONNY'S CHOICE is 2 for 2 here, 8 for 9 ITM at this trip, and has been re-claimed by Mullins. All kinds of logical. #5 ALEX ROSSI barely beat home the chase ambulance in last, but we've made money in the past with horses that have been eased in their last, and Argentinian bred is 2 fer 3 in second off the layoff attempts. Not impossible on a drop to his lowest level yet.

 

Race 3 -

1.Professor Burns

2.Cape Wolfe ( GB )

3.Poshsky

#5 PROFESSOR BURNS has been gone since the early summer, but the recent bullet breeze ( a nice sign for a closer ) assuages any trepidation about the fitness, and note that this runner's best work ( 2-4 ) occurs right here in comparison to other venues ( 0-9 ). #6 CAPE WOLFE (GB) is hiked up in the first start off the claim for Sherlock, and stretched out as well. The latter not of a concern as gelding's 2 for 4 at this trip and there's a nice maintenance move since the score. #2 POSHSKY has that nice type of "declining" record that we like to see ( 32:7-3-1 ) and runner up from last came back to get his picture taken. Six year old has faced some heavy hitters in his day, and has yet to be entered this low since the maiden breaker way back when.  OFF TURF: 1-2-4-7-3

 

Race 4 -

1.Uptown Rythem

2.Boone Docks

3.Basinca

#1 UPTOWN RYTHEM was heading in the right direction early on in the year, what with back to back jacks at Arcadia, but obviously something went amiss in the second of those wins, as there was a voided claim for this fella that day. An eight month break ensued afterwards, but Carla knows hoe to get 'em ready, as evidenced by her whopping 5 for 10 ledger with dirt dashers off 173-346 day hibernbations ( $3.89 ROI ). The works are okay and Baze has some familiarity aboard. #10 BASINCA drops & is reunited w/Prat today ( who took a spill here on Sunday, so check for changes ), who is 5:0-3-0 aboard this one. #6 BOONE DOCKS was protected from a fourth consecutive claim by Periban in most recent and finished 3rd in this race two back; seems a nice slot once again.  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #5 HEIR OF STORM as Dollasse is 0-6 w/first off the claim dirt sprinters.  NOTE: AS OF 2:30, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #4 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race 5 -

1.K Thirty Eight ( AE )

2.Royal Privacy

3.Brandonthebartender

#11 K THIRTY EIGHT (AE) didn't lift a hoof in first try off the bench, but is 1 fer 2 in "true" second off the L/O attempts, 1 fer 3 in local turf sprints ( separate races ), and is 1 fer 2 when breaking from the outside ( separate races ). I always like when there are multiple things groovin' for an animal, and we're getting a nice price as well---should he face the starter. #2 ROYAL PRIVACY didn't show much in the lone turf foray, but that was routing, which is not this one's forte'. The respective Tomlinsons of 333 ( Turf ) and 432 ( Distance ) say that you can definitely give this one a shot, especially with the zippy tendencies. #1 BRANDONTHEBARTENDER figures no worse than 3rd in this spot, with the gaudy numbers and all, but the last four turf losses came at average odds of 2-1, so caveat emptor.  OFF TURF: 6-9-11(AE)-2-3  NOTE: AS OF 2:31, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #10 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race 6 -

1.Forever Darling

2.Bad Ju Ju

3.Easy Grader

#3 FOREVER DARLING hasn't seen the scene since tangling with five others in a very salty rendition of the Acorn at Belmont where three of the quintet that have come back to run, won their next start. New shotcaller is 5:2-2-0-1 with fresh faces in dirt dashes ( 55-330 days ) and the mutuels for those who triumphed were $40 & $10 ! #7 BAD JU JU steps up a peg after a convincing win at Arcadia 18 days back, and 18% Peter Miller is 2 for 6 with 2nd off the claim dirt sprinters that won 1-2 dozen days back. #6 EASY GRADER has been getting better and better having won 3 of 5 thus far, but those were on the gramma and not sure about the switch back to the sand here; mixed feelings.

 

Race 7 -

1.Nuevo Record ( Jpn )

2.Frenzified ( GB )

3.Generosidade ( Uru )

#1 NUEVO RECORD (JPN) was positively marooned in the Breeders' Cup and never really got involved that afternoon in her first try in the States. Gal owns tons of back class, slides way inside today, and the stock goes up if the front wraps come off. #5 FRENZIFIED ( GB ) has hit the board in all four North American forays, and the recent Grade 1 showing produced her best speed figure to date. Hard to fault. #4 GENEROSIDADE (URU) completes your basic Japan/Great Britain/Uruguay triple based on the plethora of marathon starts.  OFF TURF: 11(AE)-8-3-1-6

 

Race 8 -

1.Big Champion

2.Party Rule

3.Julia's Summer

#3 BIG CHAMPION wins by a geared down 10 lengths at 1-5 if able to face the starter, but for the life of me I can't imagine why Glatt would now lose this one for 20, as he's proven to be capable of so much more. Examine with a fine tooth comb pre-race---especially for bandages and missing limbs. #5 PARTY RULE brings a 416 Tommy with him for the unveiling and needn't be much to hit the board. Sometimes when there's an open length winner, a bomb can sneak in for the tri, and that may be the case with #7 JULIA'S SUMMER.

 

Del Mar         ( Current ):          12-61  ( $139.60 )  Beatable Favorites     4-15  ( 26.7% )  Favorites Win %     16-61  ( 26.2% )


Breeders' Cup     ( Final ):          3-22     ( $30.20 )   Beatable Favorites:     2-4   ( 50.0% )  Favorites Win %     4-22   ( 18.2% )

Keeneland          ( Final ) :        29-159  ( $297.80 )  Beatable Favorites:     5-18 ( 27.8% )  Favorite's Win %   61-159 ( 38.6% ) 

Kentucky Downs ( Final ):           11-50   ( $66.00 )  Beatable Favorites:      0-4  (  0.0% )   Favorite's Win %    18-50 ( 36.0% )

Del Mar             ( Final ):          56-331 ( $508.60 )  Beatable Favorites:    11-31 ( 35.5% )  Favorite's Win %  121-331 ( 36.6% )

Travers Day       ( Final ):            1-13  ( $16.80  )   Beatable Favorites:      0-1   ( 0.0% )   Favorite's Win %      6-13   ( 46.2% )

Santa Anita Stats(Final ):          87-320 ( $891.00 )  Beatable Favorites:     8-30  ( 26.7% ) Favorite's Win %   108-320 ( 33.8% ) 

Arlington Stats   ( Final ):           2-9     ( $29.00 )    Beatable Favorites:      0-1  (  0.0% )   Favorite's Win %      2-9    ( 22.2% )

Belmont Stats    ( Final ):           2-13   ( $14.00 )    Beatable Favorites:      0-1  (  0.0% )   Favorite's Win %      4-13   ( 30.8% )

Pimlico Stats      ( Final ):           3-14   ( $13.00 )    Beatable Favorites:      0-0  (  0.0% )   Favorite's Win %      6-14   ( 42.9% )

Churchill Stats    ( Final ):           2-27   (  $5.50  )   Beatable Favorites:      2-6  ( 33.3% )   Favorite's Win %    10-27   ( 37.0% )

Keeneland Stats  ( Final ):         28-150 ( $228.20 )  Beatable Favorites:    5-15  ( 33.3% )   Favorite's Win %    57-150 ( 38.0% )

Gulfstream Stats ( Final ):       173-918 ( $1317.00 ) Beatable Favorites: 30-131 ( 22.9% )   Favorite's Win %   339-928 ( 36.5% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2014-2016 Final ): 40-247   ( $372.40 ) Beatable Favorites: 15-41 ( 36.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 85-247  ( 34.4% )  +/-: -24.6% against a 17.0% takeout                              


Poly Tracks 2014-6 (All Final): 85-566     ( $819.20 ) Beatable Favorites : 15-68   ( 22.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 162 -585  ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2014-6 (All Final):1085-5246 ($9,068.50)Beatable Favorites : 174-614( 28.3% ) Favorite's Win %: 1944-5330( 36.5% ) +/-: -13.6%  against a 16.6% takeout


Cumulative Stats (All Final):   1170-5812 ($9,887.70)Beatable Favorites : 189-682( 27.7% ) Favorite's Win %: 2105-5915 ( 35.6% ) +/-: -14.8% against a 16.8% takeout


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