SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Del Mar Selections & Analysis - 12/1 - Closing Week
  
  

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Miserable day on Sunday, as it poured leading up to the races, and although we amended one minor selection I'm really not my biggest fan when the card gets washed out like that. 

Let's hope it's fast & firm for the closing week.


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


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Del Mar - 12/1 - Closing Week

 

Race 1 -

1.Run Sophia Run

2.Princess Kendra

3.Q' Viva

#1 RUN SOPHIA RUN has been quite the money burner of late, having gone 11:0-6-4-1 since the end of January ( and more than half of those outings as the chalk ), but won her only outing over the strip, drops, and gets T-Baze; Timid selection. #2 PRINCESS KENDRA is a bit light from a numbers perspective, but shoots for the hat trick today and ain't facing much. #4 Q' VIVA is another professional nibbler ( eight minor placings from as many starts ) but likes this place ( 7:2-1-3 ) and drops a peg.  NOTE: AS OF 3:26. DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #3 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race 2 -

1.Causa

2.The Common Man

3.Beantown Boys

#5 CAUSA was extremely professional in winning at first asking back on 10/29, and displayed a nice "Z" pattern in doing so that afternoon ( lost 3 1/2 lengths from the quarter pole to the half before regaining 10 1/2 from that point to the line. Stretches out today, but the breeding ( Giant's Causeway upstairs ) says that it shouldn't be an issue. Second, third and 7th place finishers from that afternoon came back to finish first, third and seventh in the same heat next time out. The one that finished 3rd replicated the Beyer, and the one that finished 2nd went from a 55 to a 64, so things are looking good for an improvement today. #1 THE COMMON MAN has gotten better with each and every starts, and done it under a myriad of circumstances: Dirt, poly, turf, one turn and two. Sizzling Van Dyke takes over for this speedster today. #2 BEANTOWN BOYS grabbed the show dough against similar in last, but the place horse from that day came back to win, and we like the rateability this one shows. 

 

Race 3 -

1.Malko ( Ire )

2.Motoring Around

3.Trust Your Gut

#10 MALKO (IRE) ran second in this race 42 days ago, and without that winner here, we see no reason gelding can't get the job done today. #1 MOTORING AROUND loses the eye cups today and hat hit the board in four straight before a troubled flop in most recent. Slides to the inside and may make amends. #4 TRUST YOUR GUT rounds out the top three in a blase' race.  OFF TURF: 10-9-4-5-3

 

Race 4 -

1.Big Adventure

2.Princess Marie

3.Jeanjeannie

There are three excellent DRF Formulator stats to dive into here, so let's get to it. #5 BIG ADVENTURE has lost by a total of 30 lengths in both her starts to date, but over the last 5 years, Sherman is a perfect 3 for 3 with maiden claiming dirt stayers returning from 40-80 day absences ( $5, $41 and $11 ). The high priced winner in that survey was taking the biggest drop in the game---just like this one. Take a peek at that hidden move back on November 13. #6 PRINCESS MARIE displays a nice "Z" pattern last time out, and 13% clan is 2 for 3 with dirt runners on the stretchout ( 9-19 days ) with the winners coming back $8 and $6. #3 JEANJEANNIE was a well clear second in front of a next out winner in this race back on 10/20 and shedrow is 2-4 w/maiden claiming dirt routers that crashed the tri < 31 days ago ( $12 & $5 ).

 

Race 5 -

1.Flaming Vixen

2.Conquest So True

3.Blondy's Reward

#7 FLAMING VIXEN showed zilch in a route back in mid October, but the sprint prior to that wasn't bad and gets a nice jockey upgrade today. Another meek choice. #1 CONQUEST SO TRUE is a nibbler by rote ( 15:1-3-4 ), but was wide in latest and we've always loved the "apprentice to journeyman" angle. #3 BLONDY'S REWARD hasn't seen the scene since the spring, but won off a 6+ month break right here a year and a half ago, and the morning moves signal readiness.

 

Race 6 -

1.Blameitonthelaw

2.Annies Candy

3.Sirocco Strike ( AE )

Watching some 'Barney Miller' tonight, just a few days after the passing of Ron Glass ( Detective Harris ). What episode is on ? "Hash", of course !! ( The one where they all get high off brownies laced with hashish ! ) I've enclosed a classic clip from that episode right here https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LKubY_IC7xw !! We'll be living on a natural high should the #2 BLAMEITONTHELAW ( irony ! ) come through here. Sadler trainee is a fairly consistent animal in 2016. Not just in the triad of fourth place finishes, but in the speed figure dept. What we really like is the turf Tomlinson for today's initial grass attempt ( 386 ) to go along with the already proven sprinter's capabilities. Dig it. #3 ANNIES CANDY has been steady if not spectacular in her three tries on the green, and white hot Peter Milller is 2 for 3 with local optional runners making this surface switch off 1-2 month breaks ( ITM last ). The winners came back $18 & $9, but notice that front wraps were added in last, so if possible, take a gander pre-race. #13 SIROCCO STRIKE (AE) has made the tri in 4 of 5 at this dx. and could be a factor if able to draw in.  OFF TURF: 13(AE)-4-3-10(AE)-1  NOTE: AS OF 3:27, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #6 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race 7 -

1.Silent Bird

2.Prospect Park

3.Clever Royal

Quite possibly the most competitive, interesting race of the met. We were unable to shave off any of the octet on our first draft, then after diving into the trainer stats we found that 6 of the 8 had higher batting averages than their norms within the specific parameters of this heat ( all of them substantially higher ). #7 SILENT BIRD shoots for the grand slam today and is seemingly getting better and better. Glatt is a sharp 3 fer 4 w/3rd off the L/O local dirt dashers that won their most recent ( $10, $3 & $6 ) and the crisp workouts are always a positive sign for a stalking closer. Poor #4 PROSPECT PARK. Fella was jinxed when I put a Derby Future on him way back when, and it still seems they don't know what to do with this one. Regardless, Sise is 4:2-0-1-1 with 2nd off the bench optional dirt sprinters who missed the $ when last seen ( $15 & $14 ). Prat takes over for Sleepy. #1 CLEVER ROYAL goes from a turf route to a dirt sprint, and the only time that was attempted an $8 win was the end result. 13% Kristin is 2 for 6 when doing such a move with those who missed the board 21-43 days back ( $8 & $6 ). Five year old has done some good work with Pedroza in the past.

 

Race 8 -

1.Another Girl Alma

2.Bona Fide Image

3.Bissou Bissou

#4 ANOTHER GIRL ALMA is 3rd off the break, cuts back and drops down. Comparable numbers to others make this a sensible choice. #7 BONA FIDE IMAGE can be forgiven the last as she got her hooves tangled with another's and was moved up to 3rd via DQ. Speed+Tyler=Good shot. #11 BISSOU BISSOU is another up for sale for the first time and draws well while retaining Talamo despite the absence. 

 

Del Mar         ( Current ):          20-95  ( $178.60 )  Beatable Favorites     6-19  ( 31.6% )  Favorites Win %     32-95  ( 33.7% )


Breeders' Cup     ( Final ):          3-22     ( $30.20 )   Beatable Favorites:     2-4   ( 50.0% )  Favorites Win %     4-22   ( 18.2% )

Keeneland          ( Final ) :        29-159  ( $297.80 )  Beatable Favorites:     5-18 ( 27.8% )  Favorite's Win %   61-159 ( 38.6% ) 

Kentucky Downs ( Final ):           11-50   ( $66.00 )  Beatable Favorites:      0-4  (  0.0% )   Favorite's Win %    18-50 ( 36.0% )

Del Mar             ( Final ):          56-331 ( $508.60 )  Beatable Favorites:    11-31 ( 35.5% )  Favorite's Win %  121-331 ( 36.6% )

Travers Day       ( Final ):            1-13  ( $16.80  )   Beatable Favorites:      0-1   ( 0.0% )   Favorite's Win %      6-13   ( 46.2% )

Santa Anita Stats(Final ):          87-320 ( $891.00 )  Beatable Favorites:     8-30  ( 26.7% ) Favorite's Win %   108-320 ( 33.8% ) 

Arlington Stats   ( Final ):           2-9     ( $29.00 )    Beatable Favorites:      0-1  (  0.0% )   Favorite's Win %      2-9    ( 22.2% )

Belmont Stats    ( Final ):           2-13   ( $14.00 )    Beatable Favorites:      0-1  (  0.0% )   Favorite's Win %      4-13   ( 30.8% )

Pimlico Stats      ( Final ):           3-14   ( $13.00 )    Beatable Favorites:      0-0  (  0.0% )   Favorite's Win %      6-14   ( 42.9% )

Churchill Stats    ( Final ):           2-27   (  $5.50  )   Beatable Favorites:      2-6  ( 33.3% )   Favorite's Win %    10-27   ( 37.0% )

Keeneland Stats  ( Final ):         28-150 ( $228.20 )  Beatable Favorites:    5-15  ( 33.3% )   Favorite's Win %    57-150 ( 38.0% )

Gulfstream Stats ( Final ):       173-918 ( $1317.00 ) Beatable Favorites: 30-131 ( 22.9% )   Favorite's Win %   339-928 ( 36.5% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2014-2016 Final ): 40-247   ( $372.40 ) Beatable Favorites: 15-41 ( 36.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 85-247  ( 34.4% )  +/-: -24.6% against a 17.0% takeout                              


Poly Tracks 2014-6 (All Final): 85-566     ( $819.20 ) Beatable Favorites : 15-68   ( 22.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 162 -585  ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2014-6 (All Final):1085-5246 ($9,068.50)Beatable Favorites : 174-614( 28.3% ) Favorite's Win %: 1944-5330( 36.5% ) +/-: -13.6%  against a 16.6% takeout


Cumulative Stats (All Final):   1170-5812 ($9,887.70)Beatable Favorites : 189-682( 27.7% ) Favorite's Win %: 2105-5915 ( 35.6% ) +/-: -14.8% against a 16.8% takeout


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