SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Del Mar Selections & Analysis - 12/3
  
  

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Decent day for us here yesterday with a couple of nicely priced winners on the afternoon ( to go along with  an ice cold $98 double ), and just a remider that I also have a full writeup for Gulfstream's opening day today, as it's the Claiming Crown, with nearly $1.2 million in purses !!


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


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Del Mar - 12/3

 

Race 1 -

1.Swiss Cheese

2.Celebrity Status

3.Thunder Basin

#4 SWISS CHEESE grabbed the lead turning for home in most recent, but the jockey got some butterfingers and lost the stick late in the game. Not sure that made the difference between winning and losing, but on the whole, gelding is fairly consistent ( especially here ) and makes sense in a very tough opener. #3 CELEBRITY STATUS can be forgiven the recent flop, as routing probably ain't this one's game, but the dash prior to that was okay ( despite some trouble ), and could spice things up at a price. #5 THUNDER BASIN hails from a 14% barn that's 3-12 with low level dirt dashers who missed the money 1-2 fortnights back, with the winners paying $6, $32 & $4.

 

Race 2 -

1.Ketos

2.Super Touch

3.Storm the Shore

#8 KETOS has been befallen by some layoff lines throughout his career, but usually returns just fine, and now the connections that plunked down $210,000 on him three years ago are willing to sever ties as he takes the biggest drop in the game today. The latter part is important, because over the last five years this 17% clan is a snazzy 8:3-2-1 when doing such with his runners off 50-100 day absences in a dirt sprint ( < 20-1 ). The mutuels for those where $3, $ & $17, and hot pilot gets the nod. #6 SUPER TOUCH goes green to brown, two turns to one, and slides down in class. Keep in mind that this one has hit the board in his last four times when up for sale. #7 STORM THE SHORE as good as any for the show dough. 

 

Race 3 -

1.Buymeabond

2.Infinite Magic

3.Presidentsky

#8 BUYMEABOND defeated slightly cheaper in last and ended up with a new address afterwards. We always like when the pre-claim jock returns, and are especially enamored with this one's "declining" record at Del Mar ( 7:3-2-1 ). #3 INFINITE MAGIC finished just behind the above in said affair and gets a favorable three pound switch in the post department, which could make up that half length difference. #1 PRESIDENTSKY is fresh off the claim for Brocklebank and adds eye cups in this, his 21st start; hard to knock.  OFF TURF: 6-1-7-2-9

 

Race 4 -

1.Datcatsa Gem

2.Not Chopped Liver

3.Classic Ruler

We're seeing this as a three horse race. Not that they will run 1-2-3 mind you, but that we won't be going deeper that this triad in our rolling action. #9 DATCATSA GEM has been alternating the good with the bad to start things out, but now cuts back while drawing the outside, from which he hung up an adjusted figure of 60.4 two back. My main man climbs aboard today. #3 NOT CHOPPED LIVER fought every step of the way in the 11/11 overture, hanging on to second by a nostril in losing by just a half. For some reason they saw fit to geld this chap after that race ( geez.... ) and is eligible to move forward. #5 CLASSIC RULER finished a length and a half behind 'Liver in said deal, and 423 Tomlinson number for today's dx. says to us that there is plenty of upside here.  NOTE: AS OF 3:21, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #6 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race 5 -

1.Paquita Coqueta ( Chi )

2.Home Journey

3.Indriya

#8 PAQUITA COQUETA (CHI) did some really good things down in Chile before prior to the transport up here and being administered the wonder drug by new boss Mandella. First two starts in The States were very sharp, and Richard is 2 for 6 with optional turf sprinters that crashed the tri 27-55 days ago ( $7 & $4 ). #7 HOME JOURNEY always gives a good account of herself and Puype nearly triples his batting average with runners of this ilk that hit the board in last & are second off the bench today. Those who found the winner's circle paid $16, $2 & $5, and Smith will most likely look to get the first jump on Stevens in this spot. #3 INDRIYA is back in against the gals today and only lost by 2+ in second off the shelf attempt.  OFF TURF: 8-1-3-2-4

 

Race 6 -

1.Vale Dori ( Arg )

2.Show Stealer

3.Wild at Heart

Today's 6th race is named after the Hall of Famer Bayakoa, and for some history on this great distaffer, go to this site https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bayakoa . As for the race itself, it's a tight deal, but we'll give a tepid nod to the #5 VALE DORI (ARG). Baffert charge has done little wrong since getting here & seems to be able to send or rate from just off the pace. Could be a goodie in this division next year. #7 SHOW STEALER stepped up into stakes ranks back in July, and outran her odds when finishing 3rd at 17-1 that afternoon. Gal has been MIA since, but Sherman knows how to get 'em ready and the worktab looks good. #6 WILD AT HEART finished 2nd & 3rd in lone two dirt routes last year ( the latter of those was vs. Stellar Wind ), and Castellano takes the assignment.

 

Race 7 -

1.Hayabusa One ( Fr )

2.Free Rose

3.Beach Patrol

I like how they keep the memory of Hollywood Park alive with the Grade 1 Hollywood Derby here, and we've enclosed some history on the now razed racetrack here at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hollywood_Park_Racetrack . #8 HAYABUSA ONE (FR) made his first American start a winning one, as he romped off an 8 month layoff in first try for Motion, who's had a helluva year. Dives into the deep end of the waters today, but this 17% shot caller is a lively 26% ( 26:7-2-7 ) w/ second off the layoff graded turf routers coming off a win ( $4.45 ROI ). What we really like is there's a stat within that stat of 4:2-1-1 with So. Cal runners. Those came back $27 & $19, and one of the runner ups was 20-1. This is important because most east coast trainers' numbers drop appreciably when shipping out here. #5 FREE ROSE has been a different animal since switching to the sod this spring at $113 beneath young Sophie ( I was there that day, as she nicely walked the dog ), finishing 1-2-3 in all his six starts. Gelding appears to have been partially sold after the second turf try and seems to be getting better and better. #1 BEACH PATROL has gotten checks in 8 of 9 so far and figures prominent again.  OFF TURF: 7-1-2-4-6

 

Race 8 -

1.Sheer Flattery

2.Joey Pots and Pans ( AE )

3.Little Juanito

#4 SHEER FLATTERY finished a well clear second behind Mastery who came right back to go wire to wire in The Bob Hope; down the lane. #13 JOEY POTS AND PANS (AE) sounds like a fellow Brooklynite, but you can fuhgeddabout his chances if one doesn't scratch, regardless of the nice works or high Tommy. #3 LITTLE JUANITO was a game third in the curtain rising and we see no reason for a regression in this spot.

 

Race 9 -

1.Tribal Fighter

2.American League

3.Dynamic Scoring

#3 TRIBAL FIGHTER has nicely changed his tactics of late---showing some rateability rather than gun, gun, gunning. The end result has been two excruciating nose beats and a DQ outta the money, but today just may be the day for that first turf score. #4 AMERICAN LEAGUE has done well since being switched back to the gramma ( a win and a fourth, missing third by a honker ), and the Beyers say he should be right there at the end. #1 DYNAMIC SCORING moves in eight post positions off a solid 3rd at big odds and gets a pilot upgrade here. OFF TURF: 3-4-5-6-8

 

Del Mar         ( Current ):          24-111  ( $218.40 ) Beatable Favorites     6-19  ( 31.6% )  Favorites Win %  37-111  ( 33.3% )


Breeders' Cup     ( Final ):          3-22     ( $30.20 )   Beatable Favorites:     2-4   ( 50.0% )  Favorites Win %     4-22   ( 18.2% )

Keeneland          ( Final ) :        29-159  ( $297.80 )  Beatable Favorites:     5-18 ( 27.8% )  Favorite's Win %   61-159 ( 38.6% ) 

Kentucky Downs ( Final ):           11-50   ( $66.00 )  Beatable Favorites:      0-4  (  0.0% )   Favorite's Win %    18-50 ( 36.0% )

Del Mar             ( Final ):          56-331 ( $508.60 )  Beatable Favorites:    11-31 ( 35.5% )  Favorite's Win %  121-331 ( 36.6% )

Travers Day       ( Final ):            1-13  ( $16.80  )   Beatable Favorites:      0-1   ( 0.0% )   Favorite's Win %      6-13   ( 46.2% )

Santa Anita Stats(Final ):          87-320 ( $891.00 )  Beatable Favorites:     8-30  ( 26.7% ) Favorite's Win %   108-320 ( 33.8% ) 

Arlington Stats   ( Final ):           2-9     ( $29.00 )    Beatable Favorites:      0-1  (  0.0% )   Favorite's Win %      2-9    ( 22.2% )

Belmont Stats    ( Final ):           2-13   ( $14.00 )    Beatable Favorites:      0-1  (  0.0% )   Favorite's Win %      4-13   ( 30.8% )

Pimlico Stats      ( Final ):           3-14   ( $13.00 )    Beatable Favorites:      0-0  (  0.0% )   Favorite's Win %      6-14   ( 42.9% )

Churchill Stats    ( Final ):           2-27   (  $5.50  )   Beatable Favorites:      2-6  ( 33.3% )   Favorite's Win %    10-27   ( 37.0% )

Keeneland Stats  ( Final ):         28-150 ( $228.20 )  Beatable Favorites:    5-15  ( 33.3% )   Favorite's Win %    57-150 ( 38.0% )

Gulfstream Stats ( Final ):       173-918 ( $1317.00 ) Beatable Favorites: 30-131 ( 22.9% )   Favorite's Win %   339-928 ( 36.5% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2014-2016 Final ): 40-247   ( $372.40 ) Beatable Favorites: 15-41 ( 36.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 85-247  ( 34.4% )  +/-: -24.6% against a 17.0% takeout                              


Poly Tracks 2014-6 (All Final): 85-566     ( $819.20 ) Beatable Favorites : 15-68   ( 22.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 162 -585  ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2014-6 (All Final):1085-5246 ($9,068.50)Beatable Favorites : 174-614( 28.3% ) Favorite's Win %: 1944-5330( 36.5% ) +/-: -13.6%  against a 16.6% takeout


Cumulative Stats (All Final):   1170-5812 ($9,887.70)Beatable Favorites : 189-682( 27.7% ) Favorite's Win %: 2105-5915 ( 35.6% ) +/-: -14.8% against a 16.8% takeout


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