SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Gulfstream Park Selections & Analysis - 12/4
  
  

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Today's Beatable Favorite(s):


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Gulfstream Park - 12/4

 

Race 1 -

1.Break Away

2.Likeagirl

3.Yes Mongolia

#5 BREAK AWAY sure doesn't need to take her track with her, does she? Gal enters her sixth different starting gate from as many outings, the last two of which were dead game runner up finishes at this level. Over the last 260 weeks, 15% trainer is a jazzy 6:4-1-0-1 with mid level turf routers who hit the board 17-33 days ago & are < 6-1 today ( $5.19 ROI ). #2 LIKEAGIRL is another earning traveling mils this year, and makes her second start at this condition today. Not hopeless for a piece. #8 YES MONGOLIA as bad as any for the show dough.  OFF TURF: 5-7-8-1-2

 

Race 2 -

1.Summer Scamp

2.Souper True

3.Brave Enrique

There are three tremendous DRF Formulator angles in play here, so let's not beat around the bush... #5 SUMMER SCAMP: 40% outfit is 3:2-0-1 when getting new runners in the barn & entering them in dirt sprints ( $20 & $9 ). #2 SOUPER TRUE: Plesa ( 18% when eating his Wheaties in the morning ) bats 29% with local mid level dirt dashers off 52-104 day absences. #6 BRAVE ENRIQUE: 12% clan more than doubles that rate ( 2-8 ) when adding the hood to those going short on the sand ( 20-280 days ) with the winners coming back $13 & $8. 

 

Race 3 -

1.Malisa

2.Synchronizing

3.Katira

We're seeing this as a three horse race. Not that they will run 1-2-3, mind you, but hat the winner should most likely come from this triad. #3 MALISA didn't show much in the comebacker, but with maidens we permit ourselves to go anywhere in the PP's, and the race back here in June yielded an adjusted speed figure of 42.9, which kinda works here. #1 SYNCHRONIZING has the best Beyer in the bunch, and drops a few pegs off that effort. Obvious factor. #5 KATIRA goes turf to dirt, two turns to one, drops, adds blinkers and gets a new jock in the iron. Would only need to find one of those things agreeable to make a bit of noise here.

 

Race 4 -

1.Homer Matt

2.Starship Explorer

3.Divine Deacon

#5 HOMER MATT returned off more than the length of a calendar to go pillar to post up at The Shore back in September, and "Miracle Man" Navarro has given this one time to recuperate off that effort. Works are good, and shot caller is a whopping 18:9-3-3 with bottom of the barrel dirt sprinters coming off 46-92 day breaks ( < 4-1 ). The ROI there is $2.53, but you'll probably want to take a look at this one warming up. #4 STARSHIP EXPLORER ran second in this race at Calder a month ago, and with limited starters, Dwoskin is 4:2-2-0 with runners of this ilk who crashed the tri 19-39 days back ( both paying 9 bucks ). #6 DIVINE DEACON has gone 0-52-55 in his three dirt starts, so perhaps there's a bit of room for upside.

 

Race 5 -

1.Mr. Meister

2.Our War Eagle

3.Golden Diamond

#1 MR. MEISTER had a hellacious journey in the career opener at Laurel on October 16, when having to jam on the brakes before going a hundred wide turning for home. Saves all the ground today while picking up Lezcano ( who I used to love on the lawn, but has been in a bit of a slump and is now on his 3rd agent in the last 4 months ). Mott ( 16% on the norm ) is 6:2-1-1-1 w/2YO maiden special weight turf stayers making their second start ( 33-65 days ). #9 OUR WAR EAGLE has done little wrong in his three starts thus far, and is nicely bred for today's stretchout. Mainger danger. #5 GOLDEN DIAMOND is a price play to spice things up beneath. OFF TURF: 7-1-9-2-3

 

Race 6 -

1.Pegasus Kitten

2.On Board

3.Vinters Special

#1 PEGASUS KITTEN has scarcely missed a workout for the beginning of her professional career today, and we like that  bunch of 'em were over the fake stuff at Turfway. M.M. is a crisp 8:3-0-2 with firsters under these parameters ( $7, $18 & $7 ), and barn's main rider clambers aboard. #3 ON BOARD is another starting things out today and was bought at auction for a price 4X the stud fee. gaps in the worktab a bit of a concern, so take a peek in the paddock. #6 VINTERS SPECIAL hasn't been seen in eons, but paternal grandsire ran second in lone turf try, and maternal grandsire won both her turf routes. Interesting if ready.  OFF TURF: 3-4-5-6-9

 

Race 7 -

1.Three Illusions

2.Sand Shark

3.Pray for Bourbon

Once again, there are some very powerful trainer angles in play here, but before we get to 'em, I want to explain to you what I look for in a positive angle. Basically, I want a "category specific" stat that is at least 50% higher than the conditioner's regular numbers. For example, with a 20% trainer, I want a "30% stat" ( and preferable with a positive ROI ). In this case we'll start with the #8 THREE ILLUSIONS. Bezara is a perfect ( with limited data ) 2 for 2 w/2nd off the shelf mdnspwt. dirt sprinters. What we like is that although one of them paid only $4, the other one came back $87 !! May get overlooked here despite the two placings. With one of the best stats we've seen here, The Toddster ( in charge of the #5 SAND SHARK ) is a goofy 9:7-1-0 with the following: 2YO/F/D/S/Mdnspwt./2nd timers/ITM last/17-97 days. The ROI there is $2.70+, but expect a short price. #11 PRAY FOR BOURBON: 13% Hennig nearly doubles that percentage ( 3-12 ) with 2 year old sprinting fillies on the sand at this level. 

 

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Race 12 -

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Del Mar         ( Current ):          20-95  ( $178.60 )  Beatable Favorites     6-19  ( 31.6% )  Favorites Win %     32-95  ( 33.7% )


Breeders' Cup     ( Final ):          3-22     ( $30.20 )   Beatable Favorites:     2-4   ( 50.0% )  Favorites Win %     4-22   ( 18.2% )

Keeneland          ( Final ) :        29-159  ( $297.80 )  Beatable Favorites:     5-18 ( 27.8% )  Favorite's Win %   61-159 ( 38.6% ) 

Kentucky Downs ( Final ):           11-50   ( $66.00 )  Beatable Favorites:      0-4  (  0.0% )   Favorite's Win %    18-50 ( 36.0% )

Del Mar             ( Final ):          56-331 ( $508.60 )  Beatable Favorites:    11-31 ( 35.5% )  Favorite's Win %  121-331 ( 36.6% )

Travers Day       ( Final ):            1-13  ( $16.80  )   Beatable Favorites:      0-1   ( 0.0% )   Favorite's Win %      6-13   ( 46.2% )

Santa Anita Stats(Final ):          87-320 ( $891.00 )  Beatable Favorites:     8-30  ( 26.7% ) Favorite's Win %   108-320 ( 33.8% ) 

Arlington Stats   ( Final ):           2-9     ( $29.00 )    Beatable Favorites:      0-1  (  0.0% )   Favorite's Win %      2-9    ( 22.2% )

Belmont Stats    ( Final ):           2-13   ( $14.00 )    Beatable Favorites:      0-1  (  0.0% )   Favorite's Win %      4-13   ( 30.8% )

Pimlico Stats      ( Final ):           3-14   ( $13.00 )    Beatable Favorites:      0-0  (  0.0% )   Favorite's Win %      6-14   ( 42.9% )

Churchill Stats    ( Final ):           2-27   (  $5.50  )   Beatable Favorites:      2-6  ( 33.3% )   Favorite's Win %    10-27   ( 37.0% )

Keeneland Stats  ( Final ):         28-150 ( $228.20 )  Beatable Favorites:    5-15  ( 33.3% )   Favorite's Win %    57-150 ( 38.0% )

Gulfstream Stats ( Final ):       173-918 ( $1317.00 ) Beatable Favorites: 30-131 ( 22.9% )   Favorite's Win %   339-928 ( 36.5% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2014-2016 Final ): 40-247   ( $372.40 ) Beatable Favorites: 15-41 ( 36.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 85-247  ( 34.4% )  +/-: -24.6% against a 17.0% takeout                              


Poly Tracks 2014-6 (All Final): 85-566     ( $819.20 ) Beatable Favorites : 15-68   ( 22.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 162 -585  ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2014-6 (All Final):1085-5246 ($9,068.50)Beatable Favorites : 174-614( 28.3% ) Favorite's Win %: 1944-5330( 36.5% ) +/-: -13.6%  against a 16.6% takeout


Cumulative Stats (All Final):   1170-5812 ($9,887.70)Beatable Favorites : 189-682( 27.7% ) Favorite's Win %: 2105-5915 ( 35.6% ) +/-: -14.8% against a 16.8% takeout


GPBio2016