SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Gulfstream Park Selections & Analysis - 12/7 - Thank You WW2 Veterans This Pearl Harbor Day
  
  

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-Facebook reminded me Monday, that yesterday began my FOURTH year as handicapper with Saratoga Bets! That's 5,941 races analyzed, and about 10,099,700 words typed!! ( The ol' man would be happy! ) It seems like yesterday that I was in a hotel in Chicago lamenting an 0 for 9 start to my career, but then lo and behold, "Daddy's Kid" got us home in the finale! ( I think my Dad--Walter J. "Bijou" Cox--helped that one to the wire for me! ) Over that time, my column has been picked up by Batavia Bets & Empire City Casino /Empire Bets ), and who knows, maybe there's another syndication around the corner! Thanks to all for your continued support, as we look forward to the next ten million words!

-Just one winner on Sunday as favorites ruled the roost. We move into our first full week of action today at Hallandale Beach.

-As for our Del Mar meet, well, we beat the takeout once again, and our Beatable Favorites beat the grain as well, ( That has happened in 16 of our 17 meets since we started here! ). Additionally, we hit another milestone with our 1,200th winner here on Sunday !!

-We continue our consitent trend of being a 20% handicapper, as we have successfully beaten the takeout by 2.1% over three years ( saving players 12.5% ) and by eliminating the polytracks it's even higher ( 3.1% & 18.7% ).

As always, full disclosure here !


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 1 - #9 Right on Ready  Race 2 - #2 Make Me  Race 6 - #8 Magician's Vanity


I want to thank those that read my column, and have recently opened up accounts as a result of their fondness for what they see here. If you have any questions at any time, you can reach me here on Disqus, or on Twitter @brooklyncowboy1. For those who dig the scene here, and would like to be part of it, registration on our home page is easy, and if you'd like, feel free to include my name in the referral box, and let me know, so I can try and get ya' some cool swag!


 

Gulfstream Park - 12/7 - Thank You WW2 Veterans This Pearl Habor Day

 

Race 1 -

1.Prague

2.Shere Khan

3.All About Diva

#1 PRAGUE has lost ground in the lane in six straight, but on the whole is 3 for 7 at this distance, 5:2-1-1 at this level, and 5:3-1-0 when breaking from the wood. Need more? 22% shedrow is a whopping 6 for 11 with low level dirt sprinters that missed the board 21-41 days ago & are > 2.70-1 & < 5.30-1 today ( $11, $10, $9, $8, $10 & $7 ). #8 SHERE KHAN ( named after a fictional tiger in two of Rudyard kipling's books ) sowed no bite in most recent, but was master of his domain in three prior--winning one & finishing second in the others. Loves this joint ( 3-9 ) and should be right there with the class relief. #6 ALL ABOUT DIVA can last for a share for "The Miracle Man".  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #9 RIGHT ON READY doesn't even make our first cut, so we ain't takin' 7-2.  NOTE: AS OF 12:22, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #3 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELCTION.

 

Race 2 -

1.City Section

2.Backsplash

3.Trickita

#3 CITY SECTION got brutalized late in the game up at The Big A and was promptly awarded 3rd place money afterwards. While this one most definitely gives the appearance of being a nibbler by nature, Tom Bush has a good stat with maiden claiming turf routers that crashed the tri 16-32 days ago & are lowers than 12-1 today. He happens to be 5:2-0-1-1 in that regards with the winners paying $22 & $9. #9 BACKSPLASH was a game third against slightly tougher in a second off the L/O attempt across town in last, and 18% shotcaller more than doubles that rate w/2nd off the shelf turf stayers taking this kind of drop ( both paid $9 ). #1 TRICKITA as good as any for the show bread, I s'pose.  OFF TURF: 2-1-3-7-4  BEATABLE FAVORITE: You can't make me bet the #2 MAKE ME, especially after she flopped in lone turf try and has a ghastly low turf Tommy to boot.

 

Race 3 -

1.There Goes Bella

2.Colorincolonel

3.Sonder

On our first inspection of this heat we were able to shave off three of this septet, Of the remaining entrants, three had cumulative trainer stats of oh-52. The last gal standing? #7 THERE GOES BELLA. Cibelli charge has the best last race figure and barn can also boast of being 3 for 6 with female runners of this ilk who were ITM 17-35 days back & are 3.80-1 or lower now. Love the draw. #3 COLORINCOLONEL closed nicely in penultimate outing at Calder to get third & would be no surprise to grab some $ versus this allotment. #6 SONDER was sired by one who loved to go short so we'll include at a price.  NOTE: AS OF 12:34, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #2 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race 4 -

1.Dero D

2.Magic Mangus

3.Malibu'smostwanted

#1 DERO D should handle these easily. #3 MAGIC MANGUS may perk up at a big number with the switch to dirt today ( just his second over the sand ). As we're finding the rest of this race quite a chore, we'll toss in the #7 MALIBU'SMOSTWANTED because of the cutback, layoff, surface change, and drop.

 

Race 5 -

1.Rosebud's High

2.Alabandus

3.Tom Liz

#1 ROSEBUD'S HIGH showed pretty good speed in a two turn deal across town, and cuts back to what we'll be calling an "elongated sprint" this winter. April bred put in a good one here back in he spring, and you know we like to dig deep in races like this. #7 ALABANDUS was snoozing a bit at the onset in the career opener, but hey these are just babies, ya know? Goes turf to dirt today while dropping a bit and doing the two turn to one turn deal. Wouldn't need to be much to make some noise here. #10 TOM LIZ put forth his best effort to date just 10 days ago and 12-1 seems like excellent value.

 

Race 6 -

1.Kenitra

2.El Vedado

3.Play the Break

We're seeing this race as easy as 1-2-3 ! ( Yeah, right. ) #1 KENITRA finished third behind a next out winner in this race at Calder 33 days back, and the runner up from that day came back to win. Gal finished second in her only try from the inside and picks up Saez & blinkers today.  #2 EL VEDADO finally lost the bridesmaid tag in last when snagging the diploma at CRC. Consistent sort should be right there in first try against ( a weak group of ) winners. #3 PLAY THE BREAK may plod along late for a piece of Panici.  OFF TURF: 6-3-4-5-2  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #8 MAGICIAN'S VANITY doesn't make our first cut, so there's that.

 

Race 7 -

1.Cousin Tino

2.Crown Lake

3.Giants Voice

#7 COUSIN TINO has been getting better and better w/each start ( the most recent of which came with the addition of blinkers ) and today is running without his most important "equipment" for the first time. Appears solid. #2 CROWN LAKE underwent a bunch of changes in last ( first time turf, first time two turns, first time Lasix ), and while thr result was good, how much of that performance can we attribute to what we just mentioned? Not quite sure but we'll leave in the mix. #11 GIANTS VOICE flopped in the slop but both grass attempts were both fine and dandy, as Pletcher looks to make room for one more in the barn by dropping this dude once again.  OFF TURF:6-12-5-7-13

 

Race 8 -

1.Tout Vient

2.Awesome My Way

3.Big Air

We really dig the #6 TOUT VIENT in this spot. Grey gelding put up his best ( of three ) fast track dirt numbers in last, and if you're inclined to pro-rate to his best turf sprint back on August 11 ( which we did ), then an adjusted number of 75.3 is the end result. Not only would that put him in the thick of things here, but blinkers are re-affixed and there's a lot of course familiarity with this one. Play of the day. #9 AWESOME MY WAY has done well in most of his sprints & drops to lowest level yet. #3 BIG AIR nearly went wire to wire in a similar spot up in Maryland back on 11/5 and with his kind of speed is obviously dangerous.  OFF TURF: 2-7-11-5-1

 

Race 9 -

1.Calidez

2.Driving Mrs B

3.Frye's Leap

#1 CALIDEZ is a touch better bred for the dirt than the fake stuff he's been running on "nordes des lignes", and those numbers weren't bad at all. One of the best in the biz takes over today, and the dropdown is duly noted. #2 DRIVING MRS B came along late in the game to lose by just a length vs, slightly weaker, and the maiden breaker occurred right here; jock had win on Sunday. #9 FRYE'S LEAP was basically eased in latest, but we've had some luck with runners like this in the past, and is another taking the plunge while switching over to what will probably be his preferred surface.  NOTE AS OF 12:25, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #6 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.  NOTE: AS OF 4:44, DUE TO A LATE, LATE SCRATCH THE #7 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race 10 -

1.Beneficiary

2.Little Sky

3.Grand Venezuelan

#2 BENEFICIARY just missed facing tougher in a second off the shelf attempt across the way, and seems primed for a big effort today. #4 LITTLE SKY hasn't been seen since Hector was a pup, but undergoes a gamut of changes for today's comebacker, and it's encouraging to see Corey get aboard. #3 GRAND VENEZUELAN is beginning to give the appearance of being "that: kind of a maiden, but he always gives the ol' college try, so we'll incorporate underneath,  OFF TURF: 5-13(MTO)-4-2-8

 

Gulfstream    ( Current ):            2-21    ( $8.40 )    Beatable Favorites     2-6    ( 33.3% )  Favorites Win %     9-21   ( 42.9% )


Del Mar              ( Final ):          30-129 ( $249.40 ) Beatable Favorites     6-19  ( 31.6% )  Favorites Win %   46-129  ( 35.7% )

Breeders' Cup     ( Final ):          3-22     ( $30.20 )   Beatable Favorites:     2-4   ( 50.0% )  Favorites Win %     4-22   ( 18.2% )

Keeneland          ( Final ) :        29-159  ( $297.80 )  Beatable Favorites:     5-18 ( 27.8% )  Favorite's Win %   61-159 ( 38.6% ) 

Kentucky Downs ( Final ):           11-50   ( $66.00 )  Beatable Favorites:      0-4  (  0.0% )   Favorite's Win %    18-50 ( 36.0% )

Del Mar             ( Final ):          56-331 ( $508.60 )  Beatable Favorites:    11-31 ( 35.5% )  Favorite's Win %  121-331 ( 36.6% )

Travers Day       ( Final ):            1-13  ( $16.80  )   Beatable Favorites:      0-1   ( 0.0% )   Favorite's Win %      6-13   ( 46.2% )

Santa Anita Stats(Final ):          87-320 ( $891.00 )  Beatable Favorites:     8-30  ( 26.7% ) Favorite's Win %   108-320 ( 33.8% ) 

Arlington Stats   ( Final ):           2-9     ( $29.00 )    Beatable Favorites:      0-1  (  0.0% )   Favorite's Win %      2-9    ( 22.2% )

Belmont Stats    ( Final ):           2-13   ( $14.00 )    Beatable Favorites:      0-1  (  0.0% )   Favorite's Win %      4-13   ( 30.8% )

Pimlico Stats      ( Final ):           3-14   ( $13.00 )    Beatable Favorites:      0-0  (  0.0% )   Favorite's Win %      6-14   ( 42.9% )

Churchill Stats    ( Final ):           2-27   (  $5.50  )   Beatable Favorites:      2-6  ( 33.3% )   Favorite's Win %    10-27   ( 37.0% )

Keeneland Stats  ( Final ):         28-150 ( $228.20 )  Beatable Favorites:    5-15  ( 33.3% )   Favorite's Win %    57-150 ( 38.0% )

Gulfstream Stats ( Final ):       173-918 ( $1317.00 ) Beatable Favorites: 30-131 ( 22.9% )   Favorite's Win %   339-928 ( 36.5% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2014-2016 Final ): 40-247   ( $372.40 ) Beatable Favorites: 15-41 ( 36.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 85-247  ( 34.4% )  +/-: -24.6% against a 17.0% takeout                              


Poly Tracks 2014-6 (All Final): 85-566     ( $819.20 ) Beatable Favorites : 15-68   ( 22.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 162 -585  ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2014-6 (All Final):1115-5375 ($9,317.90)Beatable Favorites : 180-633( 28.4% ) Favorite's Win %: 1990-5459( 36.5% ) +/-: -13.3%  against a 16.6% takeout


Cumulative Stats (All Final): 1200-5941 ($10,137.10)Beatable Favorites : 195-701( 27.8% ) Favorite's Win %: 2152-6044 ( 35.6% ) +/-: -14.7% against a 16.8% takeout


GPBio2016