SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Gulfstream Selections & Analysis - 4/2 - Gulfstream - Opening Day


Finished up the meet in strong fashion with two winners of $9 & $44, a Triple box of $795, an exacta box of $173, and a quinella box of $62.
Additionally, we beat the takeout for our truncated "meet", and were perfect in our "Beatable Favorites" category.

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O.

Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None

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Gulfstream - 4/2 - Gulfstream - Opening Day


Race  1

1.Concorde's Dream

2.Mr Nappy

3.Living Vicariously

#8 CONCORDE'S DREAM is a homebred with a couple if fair works on the tab for today's career starter, and although this is the first foal out of lightly raced dam ( four starts ), we're assuaged by the fact that daddy was 7 for 19 over firm ground, and his mommy was 1 for 3 doing the same. The bottom half of the pedigree is just as good, w/the maternal grandsire amassing an 8 for 12 mark to the music we listed above ( 853 K ), and the granddam ringing up a 2 for 12 ledger under those conditions. Rosario takes the call for an outfit he hasn't ridden for in five years. #10 MR NAPPY has gone 48-52-55-64 in his turf sprints to date, so who quite knows where his ceiling is in that regards. #3 LIVING VICARIOUSLY is another who you can feel free to draw an upwards arrow alongside the turf dashes, and as the clear speed of this deal, the race goes through him.  OFF TURF: 2-6-8-4-14(AE)


Race  2

1.Mystic Comin Home



These three and no more for all our rolling action. #5 MYSTIC COMIN HOME looked like she blew up the tote board to the tune of 111-1 on the 13th of February, but was crushingly taken down because of interference at the start. Gal followed that up with a lively runner up finish 2 1/2 weeks later, and will likely be on the choo choo once again. #10 MARKISTAN was kept in jail one day after the minimum since being claimed for 16 large on the first of March, and young lady has hit the board in four of five tries over a glib surface. #6 BIBIANA flattened a bit in the comebacker, and so far, Joseph hasn't worked his magic with this one, as she's entered for less than 1/3rd of the 50G claim price from October. 


Race  3

1.Miss Chloe G 

2.Quiet All Around

3.Derby Day Zip

#2 MISS CHLOE G hasn't been in action since the end of January, but if you can see your way clear of the pre-layoff running line ( as we often do to find value ), then what you have is a career best turf number, and a lifetime best dirt fig two starts before that. May get overlooked here at his lowest level to date. #7 QUIET ALL AROUND lost by less than three on the sod at 56-1 vs. slightly tougher, and had improved with each and every dirt try prior to being switched overt to the gramma. #6 DERBY DAY ZIP gets in with a feather and plummets.   NOTE: AS OF 12:02, DUE TO TWO LATE SCRATCHES, THE #'s 3 & 1 WILL BE OUR SECOND & 3RD CHOICES RESPECTIVELY.


Race  4 

1.Cat Lady 

2.Slip Sliding Away

3.Mimina's Team

Another race where we won't be delving any deeper than this troika for all our bets.  #3 CAT LADY showed marked improvement from her first start to the second, and that's despite getting smacked around a bit & the rider losing an iron for a spell. White hot Saez takes over for Ortiz, who is taking some time off. #11 SLIP SLIDING AWAY returned off an elongated absence to lose by just two and change in this race two months ago, and the figure earned that day was substantially better than that of the bow back in August. Leaving beneath as Maragh coming off a grotesque meet. #8 MIMINA'S TEAM has been a completely different animal since going from brown to green, and should be no worse than 3rd for all you show punters.  OFF TURF: 1-6-13(AE)-4-3


Race  5

1.Salsa Rita

2.True Heiress

3.Gilda F. 

#1 SALSA RITA is a bit of an in and outer, but seems to fare better with lighter weight assignments, and best work has come over this strip ( 3-33 compared to 0-9 elsewhere ). Mare has done decent work when beginning from the innermost three slots on the dirt ( 2-12 ) in comparison to breaking from the four hole on out ( 1-20 ). Mild choice. #5 TRUE HEIRESS lost by a neck in her lone start off a break, and finds herself at an all time low. #7 GILDA F. outran her odds in a big way when closing out the exacta at 22-1 about three weeks back, and while a bounce is always possible today, we'd be remiss in excluding.  NOTE: AS OF 12:07, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #2 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.


Race  6 

1.Richies Great Girl



#1 RICHIES GREAT GIRL gave a decent accounting of herself when going long on the lawn for the first time in a stakes event right here a month and a half ago, and completing the super after a slightly troubled start. 22% trainer & 33% pilot click at a 4 fer 12 rate here ( 33% ), and note that this lady has won both her starts when available for purchase. #7 FANCIFIED rallied nicely to snag the sheepskin when steppin' on the blades 20 days back, and the bloodlines tell us that there's ample room for improvement. #4 HATLING tries to get one for the thumb this afternoon, and although this one has yet to crack 60 on the Beyer scale, how do you leave an animal like this outta the equation.  OFF TURF: 1-4-2-3-5


Race  7


2.Beauty Buzz

3.Redemption Day

#4 SWEDEN has posted speed figures on the dirt of 30-51-55-70, and the lineage says to us that today's two turn dirt deal is definitely doable. We'll give a nod to a horse named Sweden ridden by a gal from the same country. #8 BEAUTY BUZZ is a four year old facing some younger competitors today, and although beset by a pair of L/O lines thus far, has been a part of the super in each call to the post. Should be able to handle today's stretchout just fine. #9 REDEMPTION DAY encountered a boatload of trouble first time out, but the 408 Tomlinson for today's trip gives us hope for some improvement in today's initial dirt route. 


Race  8 


2.Fallen Leaf

3.Miss Behave

We're seeing this race as easy s 1-2-3 !   We can't select the #1 SMACK without posting this old school "Kellogg's Sugar Smacks" commercial to take you down memory lane  !!   Okay, enough about the frog -- let's get to the horse. 4YO Super Saver gal has been in the money each & every start, and although most of them have been nibbles, sometimes when the light bulb comes on ( as it did in the most recent ) it can stay on for a while. Looking good for "C-Squared"'s 2001'st win ( unless he got it over the weekend ). #2 FALLEN LEAF has done "miraculous" thgings since being claimed by Ziade & transferred over to Baxter, as this one has won 5 of 12 after losing 17 straight ( Another Festivus miracle !! ), so leave out at your own peril. #3 MISS BEHAVE is second off the shelf today and may come along for a share.  OFF TURF: 1-2-6-3-7


Race  9 

1.Mauro's Team ( AE )

2.River Stones

3.This Ill Defend

#13 MAURO'S TEAM (AE) needs one to be under the weather in order to get her name announced during today's finale, and although she hasn't done much to write home about, today is his initial try on firm ground, and just may spring the upset with a clean trip. You can essentially use the same analysis above for the #12 RIVER STONES here, & Romans charge ( who went for 190K at auction ) goes from an apprentice to a journeyman, and is a half to a 7 fer 34 turf routing winner ( 127 large ). #11 THIS ILL DEFEND has had some trouble in the last duet & gets an upgrade in the cockpit today.  OFF TURF: 1-5-14(AE)-3-15(AE)  NOTE: AS OF 12:11, DUE TO A LATE SCRACTH THE #4 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

Gulfstream      ( Current ):        8-76    ( $141.00 ) Beatable Favorites    0-3    ( 0% )       Favorites Win %     230-76     ( 39.1% ) ( As of Thursday Morning )

Aqueduct Winter  ( Final ):     65-427    ( $615.10 )  Beatable  Favorites  8-18  ( 44.4% )   Favorites Win %:   174-427 ( 40.8% ) 

Graded Stakes ( Current ):       2-8        ( $25.60 )    Beatable Favorites    N/A   (  N/A )      Favorites Win %:     2-8      ( 25.0% )

All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 64-411  ( $581.30 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-56 ( 32.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 139-411 (33.8%)  +/-: -29.2% against a 16.8% takeout  

Poly Tracks2013-16  (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-20 (All Final):2511-12426 ($21,132.80)  Beatable Favorites : 343-1222( 28.1% )Favorite's Win %: 4751-12529 ( 37.9% ) +/-: -15.3%  against a 16.8% takeout

Cumulative Stats      (All Final): 2596-12995 ($21,953.00)  Beatable Favorites : 350-1272( 27.5% )Favorite's Win %: 4739-12689 ( 37.4% ) +/-: -15.4%  against a 16.6% takeout