SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Gulfstream Selections & Analysis - 4/3


Nothing on top for us here yesterday, but our readers were aided by the good ol' "unders", as from an exotics standpoint, we got the following...

--Four Rolling Daily Doubles of $18, $17, $45 & $114

--Four Rolling Pick Three's of $85, $70, $353 & $791 

--A Rolling Pick 4 of $637

--A Rolling Pick 5 of $2,932

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O.

Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None

I want to thank those that read my column, and have recently opened up accounts as a result of their fondness for what they see here. If you have any questions at any time, you can reach me here on Disqus, or on Twitter @brooklyncowboy1. For those who dig the scene here, and would like to be part of it, registration on our home page is easy, and if you'd like, feel free to include my name in the referral box, and let me know, so I can try and get ya' some cool swag!


Gulfstream - 4/3


Race  1

1.Tapizar Girl

2.Honolua Bay

3.Nanie's Treasure

#5 TAPIZAR GIRL hasn't shown much over the last duet, but there are a few decent running lines on the resume', and with maidens we permit ourselves to go anywhere in their P.P.'s to find something positive in order to find some value. Gal has hit the board in three of five when toting 117 or less, compared to a two for sixteen rate when carrying 118 or more. #10 HONOLUA BAY ( famous snorkeling spot in Maui ) changes barns and jockeys for today's comebacker and owns a couple'a decent efforts in Hallandale Beach. #4 NANIE'S TREASURE had improved with each and every turf start before being sidelined, and is an obvious factor if fully cranked up.  OFF TURF: 1-7-2-9(MTO)-11


Race  2



3.Cat Gone Quick

#6 UYEDA got the job done right outta the box up in Oldsmar first time out, and recently posted a bullet for today's new trainer over at Calder. Gelding will most definitely need to show some improvement from a speed figure perspective to get the better of most of these, but the Tomlinson figure for the distance tells us that it's not out of the realm of possibility. Biting at a price. #2 ASSERTIKO showed very little in the most recent, but if you can forgive the clunker, AND the turf outing just prior to that, then what you're left with is an adjusted 67.2 right here at the end of January. Good to see Luis take the call. #3 CAT GONE QUICK put it all together when going coast to coast like buttah and toast on this strip 18 days back, and although a bounce is possible off a career best fig, we'd be Silly McGilly to exclude.  NOTE: AS OF 11:50, DUE TO TWO LATE SCRATCHES, THE #'s 1 & 8 WILL BE OUR SECOND & THIRD CHOICES RESPECTIVELY.


Race  3


2.Captain Yenner

3.Not Now Rand

#9 BULKCARRIER burned a little bit of bread when finishing 3rd at 9-5 last time out, but that was his second start off a 17 month hibernation, and may rebound today while shedding four pounds. Mild choice. #1 CAPTAIN YENNER adds the blinkers & loses the tes-tee-klees after flopping in the last duet, and would be no surprise for a trainer who's performed a miracle or two at times. #3 NOT NOW RAND gets off the wood today and can improve in the "2nd off a L/O" scenario; Saez/Hough have been tough. 


Race  4 


2.See the Pyramids ( AE )

3.Strong Ending 

#2 INDIRECTLY has shown marked improvement over his last two calls to the post, and they happened to coincide with him going over firm ground for the first time. Colt sheds weight AND drops class this afternoon, and has the looks of a major player. #15 SEE THE PYRAMIDS (AE) needs three to declare in order to make it into the body of the race, but should that come to fruition, brings in tow a decent collection of figaros and a substantive drop in class. #3 STRING ENDING completes our troika of selections sliding down the ladder today, and loses the eye cups as well.   OFF TURF: 5-6-7-15(AE)-3


Race  5

1.High Noon Rider 

2.Alien Invasion


#6 HIGH NOON RIDER is an extremely consistent turf performer ( 6:3-1-1 of late ), and has also done fine work both at this trip & over this strip. Will need a bit of pace to cut into, but should that be the case, could be picking up a lot of pieces late in the game. #4 ALIEN INVASION is but a schnoz shy of a 2 fer 3 mark off a break in the action, and it's tough to argue w/the nice "declining" mark at the distance ( 11:4-2-0 ). #2 DALARNA shoots for the grand salami here, and we admire this one's ability to send or rate a bit; another who relishes this dx. ( 11:5-0-2 ).  OFF TURF: 1-8-7-6-10


Race  6 

1.Candy Machine


3.Wind Ridge

We don't see the need to be delving any deeper than the top pair for all our rolling action.  #3 CANDY MACHINE was a solid runner up first time out for Brown at the end of February, and as this one is a full to a one for two dirt router ( Candy Ride over a Giant's Causeway mare ), we see today's initial stretchout as not being that much of an issue. #2 OR'EFFICE has fared decently in both routes thus fare ( one on the turf and one over the goo ), and sheds four pounds while having the hood affixed for the first time. Luis goes to the Pletcher runner, so a somewhat chilly Bravo takes the call. #8 WIND RIDGE ( cross entered yesterday, so check the changes ) exits a race up north where seven returnees have returned to amass a cumulative 7:3-0-3 mark in their followup engagements, and as C-Squared is on an 18:8-5-0 run of late, we'd be remiss in excluding. 


Race  7

1.Lemon Scat

2.La Tres Jolie

3.Wicked Solution

#9 LEMON SCAT has been in poor form since last fall, but finds herself at her lowest level to date, and is second off the L/O for the first time. Slimmest of margins in a race that's difficult for us to hug. #4 LA TRES JOLIE by no means disgraced herself when skipping over the blades for the first time at 57-1, and although she may have outran her pedigree that afternoon, we feel she may be slightly overlooked once again & will toss in. #7 WICKED SOLUTION had no palpable excuse for the recent disappointment at 3-1, but brown filly won both of her other starts when available for purchase -- and over this course as well.  OFF TURF: 7-2-9-3-8


Race  8 

1.W W Fitzy 

2.Bella Ciao

3.Off Topic 

#6 W W FITZY has gone down and up the Beyer ladder over her last septet, so today should be a goodie, right? If only it were all so easy. Four year old won her lone "third off the L/O" dirt try ( and at the famous of late Fonner Park, as well ), and also scored at this level just two starts back. #2 BELLA CIAO has partaken in the super over her last triad, and although there's nothing overly exciting about this one, she seems like the type that'll be there at the end. #4 OFF TOPIC is clearly the class of this deal and owns a win & a showing from as many starts off the bench. 


Race  9 

1.Tapit to Ride



We close out the day with yet another affair where we only like the ones we'll be laying on ya.  #3 TAPIT TO RIDE is an "omnifig" -- as rare as an ivory billed woodpecker -- and that just about always merits an automatic selection. #4 MATCHA is a steady yet unspectacular sort who makes her second start off an absence here, while dropping a few pegs as well. #5 LASKA was a bit wide in the most recent, but still split the field in losing by less than three, and two returnees from that heat finished 1st & 4th in their followup deals, essentially replicating the speed figures.  OFF TURF: 3-4-5-14(AE)-1  NOTE: AS OF 11:56, DUE TO A KEY LATE SCRATCH, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS ARE 8-7-2.


Gulfstream      ( Spring ):        0-9      ( $0.00 )     Beatable  Favorites    N/A                  Favorites Win %        4-9        ( 44.4% ) ( As of Friday morning )
Gulfstream      ( Winter ):        8-76    ( $141.00 ) Beatable Favorites    0-3    ( 0% )       Favorites Win %     230-76     ( 39.1% ) 

Aqueduct Winter  ( Final ):     65-427    ( $615.10 )  Beatable  Favorites  8-18  ( 44.4% )   Favorites Win %:   174-427 ( 40.8% ) 

Graded Stakes ( Current ):       2-8        ( $25.60 )    Beatable Favorites    N/A   (  N/A )      Favorites Win %:     2-8      ( 25.0% )

All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 64-411  ( $581.30 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-56 ( 32.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 139-411 (33.8%)  +/-: -29.2% against a 16.8% takeout  

Poly Tracks2013-16  (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-20 (All Final):2511-12426 ($21,132.80)  Beatable Favorites : 343-1222( 28.1% )Favorite's Win %: 4751-12529 ( 37.9% ) +/-: -15.3%  against a 16.8% takeout

Cumulative Stats      (All Final): 2596-12995 ($21,953.00)  Beatable Favorites : 350-1272( 27.5% )Favorite's Win %: 4739-12689 ( 37.4% ) +/-: -15.4%  against a 16.6% takeout