SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Gulfstream Selections & Analysis - 4/4
  
  

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Profitable Grand Salami on the day for us here yesterday ( $11, $4, $12 & $28 ) as well as a $99 Ice Cold Exacta & a $197 traditional Ice Cold Late Daily Double.  


I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O.


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 1 - #8 Blessed Journey  Race 3 - #9 So Dear  Race 4 - #8 Nothing Foe Free


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Gulfstream - 4/4

 

Race  1

1.Recliner ( AE )

2.Boogadi Steel

3.Dramatic Kitten

#16 RECLINER (AE) needs a lot of luck in order to make it into the body of the race, but should that be the case, would be toting the lightest impost of his working life, while picking up a decent pilot. Needs to be close up early on. #2 BOOGADI STEEL has a couple of decent morning moves on display for today's career opener ( including a 48 & 4 bullet over at Calder ), and although this is the first foal out of a dam who touched the sod but once, we like that the paternal granddam was 4:1-0-2 going long over firm ground. Price play. #4 DRAMATIC KITTEN hasn't done much to get the pulse racing in '20, but we always permit ourselves to go anywhere in a horse's P.P.'s to find something positive in order to get value, and this one put up a nice adjusted numero here at the very end of 2018.  OFF TURF: 2-12-8-3-9  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #8 BLESSED JOURNEY doesn't make our first draft, so why would we take 2-1?  NOTE: AS OF 11:12, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #9 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION. 

 

Race  2

1.Differential

2.He's Smoking Hot

3.Two Step Slew 

#8 DIFFERENTIAL is a bit of an in and outer, and although he tries the sand for the first time today, is decently bred for the stuff and finds himself at his lowest level to date. #4 HE'S SMOKING HOT was pretty flat a baker's dozen days back, but gelding outran his odds in the penultimate start ( at 72-1 ) and switches from an apprentice to a journeyman today. #1 TWO STEP SLEW closed out the tri in his lone start when breaking from the pine, ( at healthy odds ) and may spice things up a bit.  NOTE: AS OF 5:22 P.M. THURSDAY, WE ARE FLIP FLOPPING OUR TOP TWO SELECTIONS.  NOTE: AS OF 11:21, DUE TO SOME KEY LATE SCRATCHES, WE HAVE AMENDED OUR SELECTIONS TO 10-3-4.

 

Race  3

1.Bella Gianna

2.Fiery Princess

3.Toonie Loonie

Positively love the #11 BELLA GIANNA in this spot. Despite finishing off the board in her last duet, the Beyers earned over those two outings far supersede what she was bread to do. That being said, if we prorate the last to her best dirt outing, what we come up with is an adj. 59.2. Compare that to anything the rest of this field has posted, and what you have is a numbah that lays over this bunch. Play of the meet !! ( On the first day, no less ! Hopefully we get a better trip than the one given on our last "play of the meet" ! ) #2 FIERY PRINCESS ( the only one we'll be utilizing as a saver ) popped and stopped in the comebacker, but filly has worked well since and rates a legit chance if able to get back to that adjusted figure from the bow last year. #8 TOONIE LOONIE has given a good account of herself since being transitioned to the sod ( a placing & a showing ), and picks up a great "send" rider in Jaramillo.  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #9 SO DEAR  NOTE: AS OF 11:23, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #10 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  4 

1.Katz Me At Noon

2.War Act

3.Mighty Fast

#3 KATZ ME AT NOON has been just hum drum in the mornings for today's overture, and although the pedigree is still somewhat unproven, we're assuaged by the fact that the sire was 5 for 23 in dirt dashes on a fast track ( with Unbridled's Song being that one's pappy ), and the paternal granddam having gone 5-18 under similar circumstances. Additionally, the maternal family going way back did quite well also. #9 WAR ACT should be no worse than second here for all you place punters, especially seeing how this one has improved over time. #1 MIGHTY FAST has completed the superfecta in both starts to date and slides in from the 11 hole to the pine today.  BEATABLE FAVORITE: We're simply not seeing the #8 NOTHING FOR FREE at 7-2 here.

 

Race  5

1.Abarrio Forever

2.Onezy's Dream

3.Little Bella

#7 ABARRIO FOREVER hasn't shown much of late, but let's take a look at the two turf tries, shall we? The last time she set a hoof on the sod, she was quite green early on, before spitting the bit at the half, and taking 5th place money in a five horse field. What intrigues us is the outing prior to that, where she posted an adjusted 61.1 on the gramma, despite getting smacked around a bit at the onset. Jockey owes us a boatload of bread from a grotesque ride here five days ago, and her's hoping he can make amends today. #6 ONEZY'S DREAM came along gamely enough to secure place money 22 days back, and although the number came back a bit low, we'll chunk in at a decent offering. Feel free to draw an upwards arrow next to the #1 LITTLE BELLA as this grey gal has hit the board in all three starts to date, while improving from a numbers perspective along the way.   OFF TURF: 1-9-10-4-7

 

Race  6 

1.Uncut

2.Granny Bradley ( AE )

3.Awesomenewyear

#3 UNCUT has lost by double digit lengths in each of her last four calls to the post, but has had some issues in the gate/at the start/during the early stages of his last troika, and would be a longshot threat if ( and that's a big if ) she's able to get back to the sharp September outing. Meeeeeek choice in a race that's hard to hug. #13 GRANNY BRADLEY (AE) needs one to get the sniffles in order to face the starter this afternoon, but should that come to bear, would be in for a tag for the first time along with getting a jockey upgrade. #12 AWESOMENEWYEAR has partaken in the superfecta in all four starts thus far and receives the wonder drug for the 1st time.   NOTE: AS OF 11:25, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, WE ARE AMENDING OUR SELECTIONS TO 13-11-2.

 

Race  7

1.Slick Star

2.King Leonardo 

3.Bluesky Kitten

#4 SLICK STAR has gone 40-53-58-62 in his quartet of starts on firm ground, so right off the bat, who knows where the ceiling is in that regards. We've always liked fading dirt dashers going long on the lawn for the first time, and this one may get overlooked because of the recent disappointment. #5 KING LEONARDO is 5:1-2-1-1 when going brown to green, and what's wrong with that? #6 BLUESKY KITTEN as good as any for the show dough.  OFF TURF: 7-10-9-1-3

 

Race  8 

1.Hotty Toddy 

2.Ghostly Beauty

3.Lookinlikeaqueen

#7 HOTTY TODDY is a fairly steady lady who's done her best work right here at Gulfstream Park ( 4-18 ) in comparison to other courses ( 1-14 ); we consider this a drop in class, and note that she's won three of her last six over firm going. #2 GHOSTLY BEAUTY is sensible from a numbers perspective, but we'll leave beneath because of her nibbling ways. #3 LOOKINLIKEAQUEEN has done fine things at Hallandale Beach ( 13:3-1-5 ), and makes all kinds of sense.  OFF TURF: 7-2-9-5-10   NOTE: AS OF 11:27, DUE TO A KEY LATE SCRATCH, WE HAVE AMENDED OUR SELECTIONS TO 2-7-11.

 

Race  9 

1.Cigar Box

2.Inter Miami

3.Iberico

#4 CIGAR BOX was perfectly spotted on the dropdown in a diploma procuring effort two fortnights ago, and although the figure earned was by far a lifetime best ( which can often result in a bounce ), sometimes when the light bulb comes on it can stay on for a while. We'll use with the ol' "dropping weight off a win" angle. #5 INTER MIAMI cuts back, drops down, and goes turf to dirt; 2 for 4 on the local dirt. #7 IBERICO was eased in the most recent, but has apparently worked out for the state vet since, and is up for sale for the first time.  NOTE: AS OF 11:35, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #3 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  10

1.Thunder Ride

2.Kroy

3.Mai T One On

#6 THUNDER RIDE appears to be the clear speed of this deal and has a 3:1-1-0-1 ledger off the shelf. Maragh to anyone is a decent switch these days, and Vasquez hs done nice work for this outfit. #2 KROY ows a 4 for 11 mark right here, and has recently been switched over to Danny Gargan, who's a MIRACULOUS 39% this year !! ( 24 for 69 ). Difficult to toss out trainers doing such splendid work. #5 MAI TY ONE ON is 3:1-0-2 in 3rd off the L/O forays and may grind out a share. 

 

Race  11

1.Tomcat Black

2.Sonneman

3.I'll Fight Dempsey

These three and no more for all our rolling action. #1 TOMCAT BLACK has essentially improved w/each passing outing, and completed the exacta ( or "perfecta" for those nord des lignes ) in his only tty after a break. Seventh different pilot in as many outings is one of our boys in T-Gaff, and we've always LOVED pocket stalkers going seven panels. #4 SONNEMAN hasn't been seen since grabbing the sheepskin back in October, but the works for today's return are whispering to us that inclusion may be a smart idea. If anyone said "I'LL FIGHT DEMPSEY" back in the day, they made a wrong decision 6 out of 68 times, and I've enclosed he champ's bio right here for your edification https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jack_Dempsey . As for this $300,000 Into Mischief progeny -- he's tough to dismiss given this #3 off the maiden breaker.

 

Race  12

1.Vitaemi

2.Paint the Corners

3.Amazing Audrey 

#3 VITAEMI had a slightly troubled trip over a < firm turf course  ( not her strongest point ), but lost by less than two in a field of 12 at 18-1. Drops two pounds beneath a lively bug and just may surprise at a decent parimutuel offering. #10 PAINT THE CORNERS seems to dig the palm trees here, as attested by the 13:4-2-3 GP mark, and won in his lone coupling with today's jockola. #8 AMAZING AUDREY has never seen these depths and just may grab a piece.  OFF TURF: 9-8-10-1-3

 

Gulfstream      ( Spring ):        4-18    ( $53.60 )     Beatable  Favorites    N/A                   Favorites Win %        7-18    ( 38.49% ) ( As of Saturday morning )

Gulfstream      ( Winter ):        8-76    ( $141.00 )   Beatable Favorites    0-3    ( 0% )       Favorites Win %     230-76    ( 39.1% ) 


Aqueduct Winter  ( Final ):     65-427    ( $615.10 )  Beatable  Favorites  8-18  ( 44.4% )     Favorites Win %:   174-427 ( 40.8% ) 

Graded Stakes ( Current ):       2-8        ( $25.60 )    Beatable Favorites    N/A   (  N/A )      Favorites Win %:     2-8      ( 25.0% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 64-411  ( $581.30 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-56 ( 32.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 139-411 (33.8%)  +/-: -29.2% against a 16.8% takeout  


Poly Tracks2013-16  (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-20 (All Final):2511-12426 ($21,132.80)  Beatable Favorites : 343-1222( 28.1% )Favorite's Win %: 4751-12529 ( 37.9% ) +/-: -15.3%  against a 16.8% takeout


Cumulative Stats      (All Final): 2596-12995 ($21,953.00)  Beatable Favorites : 350-1272( 27.5% )Favorite's Win %: 4739-12689 ( 37.4% ) +/-: -15.4%  against a 16.6% takeout


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