SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Gulfstream Selections & Analysis - 4/5


One was the loneliest number for us here yesterday, but we're just about at the breakeven point for the meet.

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O.

Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None

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Gulfstream - 4/5


Race  1

1.American Countess

2.Mi Tia Regis

3.Too Stylish

#4 AMERICAN COUNTESS has beaten just one home in two stats to date, but drops down a peg and shed seven pounds as well. We always give a runner two chances under a particular set of circumstances ( in this case, one turn on the dirt ), and for what it's worth, not only does this gal have decent pedigree for the trip -- but two of eight other comebackers from the bow scored next out. #2 MI TIA REGIS ( cross entered yesterday, so check the changes ) comes off the first layoff of her career, and has done her finest work right here ( 3:M-2-1 ). #7 TOO STYLISH as bad as any for the show dough.  NOTE: AS OF 12:33, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #8 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.


Race  2

1.Bahamian Girl

2.Flash Money

3.Madame Barrier

#4 BAHAMIAN GIRL showed a touch of early hoof when going over the blades for the first time, and although she faded at the top of the stretch, we feel she deserves another shot over firm ground beneath her favorite pilot. Slimmest of margins in a race that's a bit difficult to decipher. #3 FLASH MONEY is a speedy sort who got her photo taken the only time she was entered for this price, and could be dangerous if not compelled to go too fast, too early. #1 MADAME BARRIER hasn't been seen since Hector was a pup, but gal did some fine work way back when, and Vasquez ( who was astride for teh maiden breaker ) hops aboard.  OFF TURF: 5-9-6-8-4


Race  3


2.Midnight Miracle

3.Baby Ice

#1 TROPICALITY bested weaker at 12-1 right here 38 days back, and the fig earned that day was a career best on the sand, so while you must be wary of a bounce, we'll use again because of the price. #5 MIDNIGHT MIRACLE has partaken in the superfecta in eight straight and owns the type of "declining" record which we've grown to love ( 18:7-3-2 ). #6 BABY ICE is smartly hiked up in class today shooting for the hat trick, and it's well within reach, given the 3 for 5 mark @ the trip, compared to a 2-21 record at other dx.'s. 


Race  4 

1.War Star

2.Fully Loaded


#4 WAR STAR has been a part of the super in each & every turf try, earning some nice figs along the way. Filly sheds a whopping eleven pounds off a decent effort, and the only time she toted less than 120 on the gramma, it occurred right here at this distance, and an open length win was the end result. #9 FULLY LOADED has some nice zip and can land a share. #5 CRYOGENIC comes in off of back to back solid efforts, and has done fine things at this trip and over this strip.  OFF TURF: 7-9-5-3(MTO)-2


Race  5


2.Goodbye Gaby


Haven't done this in a while, but what we're going to do is give you some betting strategy for this race. Let's say ( to make it easy ) $100 is your bankroll. What we'll be doing, is betting the #6 GOODBYE GABY to win in order to get back the $100. ( If the horse is 3-2, that would be $40 to win. ) Then what we'll do is an exacta with the #5 KASHAN underneath to get back that same hundred. ( Assuming that exacta is $16 for a deuce, that would need a $14 bet. ) Now, with the remaining $44, what we'll do is a triple w/ the #8 SEEYOUATTHEBREAKERS over our exacta bet for $40, and a $4 triple flipping the two "under" horses as a saver. 


Race  6 


2.Gotta Go Mo


#4 I'MPRAYINGFORTHAT cuts back to one turn after a disappointing routing effort, but the penultimate start ( a turf sprint ) yielded a lively and well clear runner up finish on this course, and could ba e majah playah if able to get back to that. Apprentice to journeyman angle duly noted. #1 GOTTA GO MO has improved with each passing start, and when you factor that in with a reduction in weights -- AND moving in eight post positions -- how do you not include? #5 AVUNCULAR is eligible to improve in the "2nd off the L/O" try.  OFF TURF: 10-2-5-6-7  NOTE: AS OF 12:36, DUE TO A KEY LATE SCRATCH, WE HAVE AMENDED OUR SELECTIONS TO 8-1-5.


Race  7

1.My Sebastiana

2.Mystic Nile

3.Sky Chaser

#5 MY SEBASTIANA showed zilch in the most recent, but the 1/26 outing was honest enough ( at 29-1 ), and this lady's finest efforts have come over this strip. #2 MYSTIC NILE finds herself at her lowest level to date, and picks up a bug that we've been watching very closely; live longshot. #6 SKY CHASER has been a part of the super in 8 of 9, and lone two tallies have come under the guidance of today's jock. 


Race  8 

1.Express Pharoah

2.Mecha Corta


#4 EXPRESS PHAROAH has been a better horsey since being transitioned to the verde, and although we don't like the jockey switch in play today, what we do dig is the 32 ounce reduction in the weight dept. after a neck beat. #7 MECHA CORTA ( "short wick" in Spanish ) ran out of fire late in the game on the 7th of March, but the two speed figures posted thus far are solid enough, and Zayas takes over for Prado. #3 SCANNO is a steady if unspectacular sort who should be close up @ the finish.  OFF TURF: 6-3-11-9-10  NOTE: AS OF 8:04 P.M. SATURDAY, WE ARE FLIP FLOPPING OUR TOP TWO SELECTIONS.


Race  9 


2.Resident Liberal

3.Mozo Bello

#3 TOTONO nearly obliterated the toteboard at a zillion-to-one last time out, and not only don't we consider that result much of an aberration ( especially if you take a gander at some of the turf outings ), but this brown gelding actually goes from open company to state breds this afternoon. Not hopeless by any stretch of the imagination. #4 RESIDENT LIBERAL bested more than half the field at 155-1 on March 21st, and did that despite encountering traffic difficulties late in the game. Interesting to see Joel ride for Eppler on a fairly nondescript animal. #2 MOZO BELLO is 3 fer 7 locally and may come along late in the game.  OFF TURF: 9-6-5-8(MTO)-2


Race  10


2.Up in Smoke

3.R Prerogative

#4 ALANDRA is the clear class of this deal, and is also in a "second off the break" scenario for the first time in her working life. Big jockey change definitely recognized, and the lone returnee from the Feb. 28th race came back to win, upping her Beyer by 5.2% in the process. #2 UP IN SMOKE went for nearly 40X the stud fee at auction 11 months ago, and it appears to have been a wise decision, as this one has been visually impressive in both victories to begin her career, and you now how we feel about an equine shedding lb.'s off a tally. #1 R PREROGATIVE has hit the board in seven of ten at Hallandale Beach, and recently completed the tri behind a next out winner. 


Race  11

1.Run Blondie Run

2.Catnip Kitten

3.Chiclet's Dream

#3 RUN BLONDIE RUN is 1 for 4 in 2nd off the L/O situations ( 1-20 otherwise ), and is 5:1-1-1-2 when beginning from the outermost two slots ( 19:1-6-1 from other posts ), and none of the results just mentioned in the two studies overlap with each other. Things to like at a price. #4 CATNIP KITTEN lost by just a length vs. slightly tougher nearly two months back, and Joel takes over for Bobblehead here. #10 CHICLET'S DREAM has crashed the party in 10 of 11, and what the hell's wrong with that?  OFF TURF: 4-5-3-7-8


Gulfstream      ( Spring ):        5-30    ( $57.40 )   Beatable  Favorites     0-2    ( 0% )      Favorites Win %       10-30    ( 33.3% ) ( As of Sunday morning )

Gulfstream      ( Winter ):        8-76    ( $141.00 )   Beatable Favorites    0-3    ( 0% )       Favorites Win %     230-76     ( 39.1% ) 

Aqueduct Winter  ( Final ):     65-427    ( $615.10 )  Beatable  Favorites  8-18  ( 44.4% )   Favorites Win %:   174-427 ( 40.8% ) 

Graded Stakes ( Current ):       2-8        ( $25.60 )    Beatable Favorites    N/A   (  N/A )      Favorites Win %:     2-8      ( 25.0% )

All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 64-411  ( $581.30 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-56 ( 32.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 139-411 (33.8%)  +/-: -29.2% against a 16.8% takeout  

Poly Tracks2013-16  (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-20 (All Final):2511-12426 ($21,132.80)  Beatable Favorites : 343-1222( 28.1% )Favorite's Win %: 4751-12529 ( 37.9% ) +/-: -15.3%  against a 16.8% takeout

Cumulative Stats      (All Final): 2596-12995 ($21,953.00)  Beatable Favorites : 350-1272( 27.5% )Favorite's Win %: 4739-12689 ( 37.4% ) +/-: -15.4%  against a 16.6% takeout