SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Gulfstream Selections & Analysis - 4/9
  
  

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Blanked on the day Sunday, but let's start out the week crisply, shall we? 


I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O.


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 10 - #11 Valletta


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Gulfstream - 4/9

 

Race  1

1.Skyline View

2.Keep Marching

3.Magical Mike

#5 SKYLINE VIEW encountered a bit of trouble in the most recent, but still ended up with a decent speed figure, all things considered. Gelding sheds three pounds off that effort, and all the returnees from said heat essentially replicated the speed figure from the prior start, which bodes well for this gelding. #8 KEEP MARCHING posted a career best numero the last time he went from brown to green, and may add some flavor to the tri. #1 MAGICAL MIKE takes the biggest drop in the game for Saffie, who's done some "miraculous" things over the past year. Blinkers come off, and jock is 5 for 9 for this barn on runners less than 34-1.  OFF TURF: 8-10-12-4-2

 

Race  2

1.Red Fog 

2.She Love Me

3.I Stand Corrected

We're seeing this race as easy as 1-2-3 ! ( Well, not quite, but, you know... )  #1 RED FOG owns a 2nd, 3rd & 4th in his three "turf to dirt" attempts, ( one of them coming from an inside slot ) and finds himself at his lowest level to date. Slight edge in a hum drum affair. #2 SHE LOVE ME is another who has never seen these depths, and the lone tally came over this oval. #3 I STAND CORRECTED showed improved speed in the most recent and completes our troika of selections on the dropdown.  NOTE: AS OF 12:33 P.M. MONDAY, WE ARE AMENDING OUR SELECTIONS TO 5-1-2.

 

Race  3

1.We Connected 

2.Declare Union

3.Farm Strong

#9 WE CONNECTED hasn't shown much in either start to date, but this is just his second start on the sod, and is a half to a 1 for 6 turf router who banked 25 large. Additionally, the sire was 4:2-2-0 on the stuff, and the paternal granddam was 7:3-10 doing the same. Worth a shot at a price. #11 DECLARE UNION showed stark improvement from the first start to the second, and drops down while going from an apprentice to a journeyman today. #1 FARM STRONG closed nicely to secure third place money when skipping over the blades for the first time, and while a bounce is always possible, we'll chunk in at what will likely be a decent #.  OFF TURF: 13(AE)-16(AE)-2-14(AE)-11  NOTE: AS OF 12:26, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #2 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  4 

1.Go Gator Girl Go

2.One Hot Drama

3.Dancing Destroyer

We don't really have a good feel for this race, so tread lightly. #4 GO GATOR GIRL GO has done some fair work on this strip and is available for purchase for the first time; Vasquez/Yates combo has been lethal. #2 ONE HOT DRAMA comes in today off a lifetime best figaro and gets an appreciable upgrade in the jockey department today. Two for two at this distance -- 0-7 otherwise. Big shot. #3 DANCING DESTROYER is another getting a better pilot this afternoon, and has a "legit" For Sale sticker attached to his rump in this spot.  

 

Race  5

1.Inconveyance

2.Ratify

3.Dr. Doyle 

#10 INCONVEYANCE displayed very little when debuting first time out at Calder, so was sent to the shelf for a bit to sort things out. The good news is that there's a crisp turf breeze on display for today's return, and 11% trainer/9% pilot are clicking at a 7 for 22 rate since September 13th at 20-1 or less, and look at these prices: $8, $16, $30 x 2, $29 & $5 x 2 !! #5 RATIFY was a lively runner up when finishing directly in front of a next out winner in a nearly identical spot four dozen days back, and that's proven to be a key race, as eight returnees have amassed a cumulative 3 for 8 mark in their followup outings ( from seven different races ) with an average Beyer improvement of 2.1 points per. #7 DR. DOYLE rounds out the top three.  OFF TURF: 13(AE)-5-3-11-4

 

Race  6 

1.Unprecedented 

2.Three Deep

3.Quiet Company

#8 UNPRECEDENTED has been in the back half of the field in each of his last three starts, and $220,000 auction purchase has since received the unkindest cut of all, while picking up Rosario for today's 3rd off the L/O try. Now or never time in for a tag for the first time. #5 THREE DEEP has done very little wrong in the three dirt attempts to date and looms a solid entrant with that bullet move on display from last Friday. #9 QUIET COMPANY is another one taking the plunge today, and gets T-Gaff for today's 2nd off the L/O foray.   NOTE: AS OF 12:27, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #10 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECION.

 

Race  7

1.Money Ride 

2.Flash Pass

3.He's Super Lucky 

#2 MONEY RIDE posted a couple of "lowish" BSF's in the duet of turf outings, but they were back when he was still figuring things out, and he got smacked around in the first while going extremely wide in the followup. Chestnut chap has displayed improved speed since then and gets an excellent "send" rider in Zayas here. Pedigree absolutely tells us to give this one another opportunity on the green stuff -- especially at a decent number. #1 FLASH PASS was an honest runner up in this race two fortnights ago and deserves your respect once again. #8 HE'S SUPER LUCKY has improved with each and every start, and both victories came on this course.  OFF TURF: 6-7-1-3-5

 

Race  8 

1.Moon Pistol

2.A I Initiative

3.Bodie Cody 

#3 MOON PISTOL has beaten just four home in his last three starts, and although this one hasn't been on the grass since the debut 2+ years ago, we actually give him an adjusted 74.3 for that effort. Obviously, there's a lot of meat on the bone between the last start and the first start, but five year old seems to try pretty hard of late, and two of three comebackers from the most recent got their photos taken, with an average Beyer improvement of 11 pints for that threesome. #6 A I INITIATIVE has been in the money in four of five at Hallandale Beach, and there's some improvement in the saddle now. #8 BODIE CODY comes in off a solid performance at 28-1, but we'll leave beneath because of his nibbling ways.  OFF TURF: 1-2-5-13(AE)-14(MTO)

 

Race  9 

1.Indian Counselor

2.Admire

3.Youngest of Five

#1 INDIAN COUNSELOR improved by about 5.8% the only time he went from T to D, and is 3:1-0-2 when beginning from the innermost three slots ( 3:0-0-0 from the four hole on out ), and may sit a nice pocket trip in this spot. Timid selection. #5 ADMIRE completed the exacta in this race nearly three weeks ago, and should be in that first flight early on. #2 YOUNGEST OF FIVE has started out his late blooming career in a professional manner, finishing second 1st time out before a visually impressive score 2 1/2 weeks after. Bloodlines tell us he should be able to handle today's initial 2X go round. 

 

Race  10

1.Dur a Cuire

2.Capable

3.Act Like Artie

We don't feel the need to delve any deeper than this triumvirate for all our rolling action...  #7 DUR A CUIRE had a nightmarish journey when coming back after a bit of an absence, but both the figure from that heat as well as the pre-layoff jammie, and recognize that 10 other returnees from the '19 finale rung up a collective 10:3-1-1-1 record from nine distinctive heats. Today's pilot a bit better than the stats belie. #4 CAPABLE has put up a couple'a decent speed #'s in as many calls to the post, and perhaps today's switch to Jaramillo has this one a bit closer to the pace. #8 ACT LIKE ARTIE showed a bit of improved hoof off the break, but faded a bit late in the game. Chance to make amends with a tidier journey.  OFF TURF: 4-3-2-15(MTO)-9  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #11 VALLETTA


Gulfstream      ( Spring ):        5-41     ( $57.40 )   Beatable  Favorites     0-2    ( 0% )      Favorites Win %       17-41    ( 41.5% ) ( As of Thursday morning )

Gulfstream      ( Winter ):        8-76    ( $141.00 )   Beatable Favorites    0-3    ( 0% )       Favorites Win %     230-76    ( 39.1% ) 


Aqueduct Winter  ( Final ):     65-427    ( $615.10 )  Beatable  Favorites  8-18  ( 44.4% )     Favorites Win %:   174-427 ( 40.8% ) 

Graded Stakes ( Current ):       2-8        ( $25.60 )    Beatable Favorites    N/A   (  N/A )      Favorites Win %:     2-8      ( 25.0% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 64-411  ( $581.30 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-56 ( 32.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 139-411 (33.8%)  +/-: -29.2% against a 16.8% takeout  


Poly Tracks2013-16  (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-20 (All Final):2511-12426 ($21,132.80)  Beatable Favorites : 343-1222( 28.1% )Favorite's Win %: 4751-12529 ( 37.9% ) +/-: -15.3%  against a 16.8% takeout


Cumulative Stats      (All Final): 2596-12995 ($21,953.00)  Beatable Favorites : 350-1272( 27.5% )Favorite's Win %: 4739-12689 ( 37.4% ) +/-: -15.4%  against a 16.6% takeout


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