SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Gulfstream Selections & Analysis - 4/10
  
  

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Just one chalky win on the day yesterday.


I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O.


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


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Gulfstream - 4/10

 

Race  1

1.Castillete

2.Bebeau

3.Joe Benjamin

#10 CASTILLETE smacked into the starting apparatus at the onset 26 days back, but still outran his 28-1 odds in a game second place finish. The number may appear to be low, but four year old has a couple of decently adjusted figures right here way back when, and note that the show horse from last came back to win next out; jockey upgrade duly noted. #3 BEBEAU has a decent overall body of work, and finds himself at his lowest level to date. While we must incorporate, we should let you know that there is nothing popping off the page to get this one to the top. #1 JOE BENJAMIN has improved w/each passing start, and loses the blinkers while  adding Bobblehead, who returns from suspension.  OFF TURF: 1-3-13(AE)-12-5

 

Race  2

1.Soy Borracho 

2.Atakan

3.Bellas Fella

#12 SOY BORRACHO has shown very little to date, but we always give a runner two tries over a particular set of circumstances before we write them off, and this one goes one turn on the dirt for the first time. The 374 Tomlinson figure for the trip tells us that there's some room for improvement here, and this one happens to be a half to a 3 for 8 dirt dasher ( 115K ). Furthermore, daddy was 3:1-1-1 in dirt sprints ( 36K ), HIS father was 3:1-2-0 doing the same ( 65K ), the paternal granddam was 11:3-2-2- dancing to this music ( 127K ), and the maternal grandsire was 2:1-1-0 at this trip ( 16K ). We'll be using the same train of thought with the #8 ATAKAN ( 390 Tommy ), as this one ( cross entered yesterday, so check the changes ) also has some decent sprinters' pedigree in the family tree. Intriguing to see Jaramillo take the assignment. #1 BELLAS FELLA closed out the tri @ 38-1 last time out and we see no reason that can't happen again. 

 

Race  3

1.Miss My Macho

2.Lady Noguez

3.Days of Spring

#7 MISS MY MACHO found herself in the back half of the field at 40-1 last out, but that was her first try against winners, and just the fact alone that she replicated the number from the maiden breaking effort is promising enough. Apprentice to journeyman angle being employed here, and Luca was astride for the initial tally two back. #5 LADY NOGUEZ has improved w/each turf try, and is showing a baby "Z" pattern from the 3/18 event, as she lost 2 1/4 lengths from the quarter to the half before gaining 5+ from that point to the finish line. #3 DAYS OF SPRING gets the necessary class relief today and has won her only two starts at this level or lower; Zayas aboard for the first time.  OFF TURF: 3-7-(MTO)-6-4-1

 

Race  4 

1.Seamialaugh

2.Princess Merida

3.Commanding Lady 

#4 SEAMIALAUGH begins her professional working life in this spot, and does such with a couple'a nice morning moves, a whopping 428 Tomlinson figure, and is a half to a 1 fer 8 sand sprinter ( 43G ). Sire won all three of his dashes, HIS sire won his lone doing the same, and the maternal grandsire won a bunch as well. #6 PRINCESS MERIDA is another who's done okay in the A.M. for today's bow, and has nice pedigree for this trip. #8 COMMANDING LADY showed improvement from the first start to the next and has been freshened up for this.   NOTE: AS OF 4:01 P.M. WEDNESDAY, WE ARE FLIP FLOPPING OUR TOP TWO SELECTIONS.

 

Race  5

1.Gorgeous in Grey

2.Algodonal

3.Fantastic Kingdom

We're seeing this as a two horse race. Not that they'll finish 1-2, mind you, but that the winner should come from our exacta runners.  #5 GORGEOUS IN GREY has been beset bu successive layoff lines, but has never been this far down the ladder, and Weaver has spun himself a fine 2020 thus far. #1 ALGONODAL appears to be the clear speed of this deal, and seems to lay over just about the entire field from an adjusted #'s perspective, but Maragh has been pretty much a non entity since getting down here, so we'll leave underneath. #3 FANTASTIC KINGDOM has partaken in the exacta in 5 of 12 right here, and that's reason enough to include.  OFF TURF: 3-4-8-5-1

 

Race  6 

1.Phish Fan

2.Travy Boy

3.Take Charge Dude

These three and no more for all our rolling action.  #4 PHISH FAN makes her 63rd start today at the age of 10, and at her 12th different track !  Fawkes charge encountered some trouble when last seen at Philadelphia Park, but blitzed similar 20 days prior to that, and gelding owns a 2 fer 8 ledger @ the distance. #2 TRAVY BOY has hit the board a whopping 15 of 20 times at G.P. and 6 of 7 at the dx. as well. No worse than 3rd for all you show punters. #1 TAKE CHARGE DUDE has done "miraculous" things since being purchased by Joseph, & is a near poyfect 5:4-0-1 at this distance of ground. Toss in a score the only time he began from the pine, and you have the looks of a live runner. 

 

Race  7

1.Mia's Bobtail

2.Tweety Kitten 

3.For Kicks

Watching "The Ten Commandments" whilst typing away tonight, and it NEVER gets old. #10 MIA'S BOBTAIL hasn't done much to get the pulse racing over the last duet, but we like to be forgiving of pre & post layoff running lines, as something likely went amiss in the former & perhaps wasn't fully cranked up for the latter. That being said, this one lost by only three lengths in her last two turf tries, and the adj. figs from those affairs were comparable to many signed on. Shot at a price. #1 TWEETY KITTEN gets a mild upgrade in the jockey dept., drops a touch, and slides in from the nine hole to the wood. Lone win came at this trip & venue. #5 FOR KICKS may plod along for a piece.   OFF TURF: 5-6-11-12-4

 

Race  8 

1.Good Credence

2.Finding Fame

3.Four Graces

We won't be delving any deeper than these three. #7 GOOD CREDENCE has shown some versatility in her last three starts -- turf, fast track, wet track -- but something must've been slightly amiss after the October deal, as she was sent to the sidelines and hasn't been seen in nearly half'a year. Not quite sure if Margotta will have her fully cranked for the comebacker, but we'll take a shot on this speedy sort. #5 FINDING FAME got the job done at first asking for Shug  47 days ago, and being an Empire Maker out of a Seeking the Gold mare, not only do we feel the result was legit, but that the extra panel & a half shouldn't be any issue whatsoever. #8 FOUR GRACES went coast to coast like butter & toast right outta the box, and the BSF earned from that day is by far the best thing that anyone in this race has posted. Keeping beneath because of the coldness of the pilot.  NOTE: AS OF 11:48, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #6 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  9 

1.Positive Phil

2.Youshouldbesolucky

3.Dillon Rocks

#3 POSITIVE PHIL was floated out a bit in the most recent, but lost by only a bit more than a length that day, and is logical with a cleaner trip. #5 YOUSHOULDBESOLUCKY missed by only a neck in his lone "second off the L/O" scenario, posing an adjusted figure of 75.1, which definitely works here, and although she's been a bit more of a fringe player than anything else, we'll use w/Jaramillo getting on for the first time. #8 DILLON ROCKS secured the sheepskin in wire to wire fashion right here about three weeks ago, and although facing winners for the first time is never easy, we'd be remiss in excluding.  OFF TURF: 2-3-1-5-8 

 

Race  10

1.On the Muscle

2.Shared Legacy 

3.Irked

#10 ON THE MUSCLE was tossed in against winners up in the Bayou on the first of March, and after encountering some trouble, by no means disgraced himself in finishing 6th at 17-1. Gelding is 2nd off the break for the 1st time her, and check out that sweet running line the last time he faced maidens. #9 SHARED LEGACY was a lively & well clear runner up in this race 40 days back, and is logical if able to replicate that effort. #3 IRKED hasn't faced the starter since opening weekend at the Spa last year, but there're a couple of nice moves on the docket for his return, and they likely came sans eye cups, which have been removed today.  OFF TURF: 1-10-2-9-11  NOTE: AS OF 4:06 P.M. WEDNESDAY, WE HAVE AMENDED OUR SELECTIONS TO 2-10-9.


Gulfstream      ( Spring ):        6-51        ( $62.40 )   Beatable  Favorites     0-3    ( 0% )      Favorites Win %       19-51    ( 37.3% ) ( As of Friday morning )

Gulfstream      ( Winter ):        8-76       ( $141.00 )   Beatable Favorites    0-3    ( 0% )       Favorites Win %     230-76    ( 39.1% ) 


Aqueduct Winter  ( Final ):     65-427    ( $615.10 )  Beatable  Favorites  8-18  ( 44.4% )    Favorites Win %:   174-427 ( 40.8% ) 

Graded Stakes ( Current ):       2-8        ( $25.60 )    Beatable Favorites    N/A   (  N/A )      Favorites Win %:     2-8       ( 25.0% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 64-411  ( $581.30 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-56 ( 32.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 139-411 (33.8%)  +/-: -29.2% against a 16.8% takeout  


Poly Tracks2013-16  (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-20 (All Final):2511-12426 ($21,132.80)  Beatable Favorites : 343-1222( 28.1% )Favorite's Win %: 4751-12529 ( 37.9% ) +/-: -15.3%  against a 16.8% takeout


Cumulative Stats      (All Final): 2596-12995 ($21,953.00)  Beatable Favorites : 350-1272( 27.5% )Favorite's Win %: 4739-12689 ( 37.4% ) +/-: -15.4%  against a 16.6% takeout


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