SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Gulfstream Selections & Analysis - 4/11 - Happy Easter ( in advance )


No column here tomorrow, but wanted to wish y'all a wonderful, blessed Easter, and God bless.  

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O.

Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None

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Gulfstream - 4/11 - Happy Easter ( in advance )


Race  1

1.Reggae Pirate ( AE ) 


3.Freddy Soto

#13 REGGAE PIRATE (AE) needs one to get out in order to get in, but should that be the case, brings in a decent 8:1-1-0 local ledger ( 13:0-0-1 otherwise ), and said score came both at this trip & over this strip. Decent bug has been a part of the exacts in 8 of 14 times thus far this meet, and we'll give this gelding a slight nod. #5 DECIDER hasn't done much to get the pulse racing in his last troika, but four year old owns a couple of decent adjusted #'s right here ( way back when ), and could surprise a bit if fully cranked up. #8 FREDDY SOTO cuts back from two turns to one this afternoon, and the 449 Tomlinson figure for the distance tells us that he should be able to handle this deal just fine; in a bit of an anomaly, this one gets his EIGHTH different rider in as many calls to the post.  OFF TURF: 7-5-4-8-1   NOTE: AS OF 12:24, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #12 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.


Race  2

1.Aurora Nation

2.Union Lane


#7 AURORA NATION has beaten just six home in her last five calls to the post, but with maidens ( especially those in wide open events such as this one right here ) we always make it a point to go anywhere in their PP's to find something positive, as they're maidens for a reason, you know. That being said, this one has popped off a couple'a decent efforts here and there, and we'll swing away at a big number. #4 UNION LANE finds herself at her lowest level to date and picks up a decent longshot rider. #2 UNCUT ( by 'Gemologist', ya get it ? ) is another who has never seen these depths, and best effort came from an inside-ish type slot. 


Race  3

1.He's a Babe

2.Light Fury

3.Tapi Frost

#1 HE'S A BABE displayed very little in the local bow right here two fortnights ago, but takes a substantial drop in class today, and the 391 Tommy says to us that this one deserves another shot. The gate move directly before said start was a very crisp one, so we see some promise with this one -- especially as the youngsters can improve by leaps and bounds at times. Mama was a goodie at this dx. ( 4 fer 12, 324 K ), and daddy was two of three @ this dist. as well. Things to like. After a bit of trouble at the onset, #3 LIGHT FURY closed out the triple at big balloons first time out, and we see no reason to leave him out of the mix vs. these. #2 TAPI FROST is upgraded to the gentleman who piloted him to his best finish thus far, and poses a big thread with a tidier start. 


Race  4 

1.Major Kelly


3.Starship Taxi

Quite often, we try to forgive poor running lines before & after a layoff, and we'll do that w/the #1 MAJOR KELLY here. Bay boy was doing decent work in the penultimate start before the break, and totes the lightest impost of his career. On that note, this one has a fair 4:0-1-2-1 mark when carrying 118 or less, and is also 3:0-1-2 when beginning from the inside, and a 5:1-0-0-2 ledger right here. Those three categories add up to a cumulative 12:1-2-2-3 boxscore ( with just one showing overlapping ), and we'll give this one a slight nod. #7 DANZO has hit the board in two of three tries when going from green to brown, and is 1 for 2 at this distance of ground. Like his ability to send or rate a bit. #6 STARSHIP TAXI is a nibbler by rote and may come along for a share. 


Race  5

1.See Below

2.See Below

3.See Below

As one of our key horses is on the outside looking in, we're going to give you two different scenarios should the #13 UNFORESEEN (AE) make it into the body of the race.

Should she get in: #6 LASHARA (GB)---#13 UNFORSEEN (AE)---#2 TAKE CHARGE RO

Should she declare: #6 LASHARA (GB)---#4 BALLYMORE STAR (IRE)---#2 TAKE CHARGE RO

OFF TURF: 15(MTO)-10-9-1-4


Race  6 

1.Liam's Boy

2.Victory Town

3.Rocket Blast

#1 LIAM'S BOY has a couple of nice works on the docket for today's initial spin ( including a bullet gate breeze from way back when, before the wheels came off ), and the 396 Tomlinson figure tells us that this one should dig today's trip. 6% rider & 10% conditioner click to a 3 for 11 rate together ( 24-1 or less ), with the winners coming back a healthy $13, $8 & $49. Papa ( a champion ) was a near perfect 4:3-1-0 in dirt sprints, papa's papa was 4:2-2-0 doing the same, and papa's mama was 8 of 17 dancing to this music as well. On the dam side, the two grandparents totaled up a cumulative 3 for 5 mark in 1X dirt events. The more we type. #10 VICTORY TOWN gave an honest showing at 12-1 off the shelf, and picks up Looey. #2 ROCKET BLAST is showing a fantastic 47 flat workout 29 days ago for this.   NOTE: AS OF 12:22, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #6 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.


Race  7


2.Dakota's Dude


#8 THEMANBEHINDTHEMAN is 2 fer 5 here ( 1-11 over other strips ), and is also 2-7 at this distance. Mild selection. #4 DAKOTA'S DUDE is 2nd off the shelf and gets major improvement in the stirrups Despite having been out of hail after the February 1st purchase, #2 ROBINTAKINCHARGE was hiked way up in class next time out, and despite finishing 8th of 10 that day, lost by just five after a wide journey. Back at a more palatable level now, and is extremely dangerous with all that speed.   OFF TURF: 9-2-10-3-5


Race  8 

1.Golden Wave

2.Good Juju

3.General Mathis

#3 GOLDEN WAVE's overture left a lot to be desired, but there's no scary drop for this $40,000 auction purchase yet, and there are still some crisp works on display. Fuentes gets the assignment now, and this one can be uuber dangerous if able to catch a flyer. #4 GOOD JUJU showed some moderate improvement from the first start to the next, and makes his second start off the hiatus. #6 GENERAL MATHIS was as green as grass first time out, but still gained more than seven lengths from the quarter to the line , and is eligible to improve with that start under his girthstrap. 


Race  9 

1.Deo Forte


3.Fluent in Sarcasm

#8 DEO FORTE has partaken in the superfecta in eight straight, and while there's nothing spectacular about this one, his best work has come over firm ground, and that may be enough to spark a solid effort with this one. #2 GIVEMETWENTY improved in a big way when procuring the sheepskin right here on the 5th of March, and the runner up from that race got his photo taken next out ( as the lone other returnee finished second, with an average Beyer improvement of five starts for the two of them. #1 FLUENT IN SARCASM ( cross entered yesterday, so check the changes ) was in the top half of the field in his first try off an elongated absence, and has a big shot if able to revert to the lone turf outing.  OFF TURF: 4-1-5-6-9


Race  10

1.Tale of Success

2.Good Credence

3.Bachelor's Bait

#2 TALE OF SUCCESS was duking it out in and between others in this race three weeks ago, and the end result was the worst performance of her career. Jock needs to recognize that there's speed inside and outside of his steed, and he doesn't need to get involved in a three or four way duel on the backside. Just break, tuck, and hope for a hole late. #3 GOOD CREDENCE ( scheduled to run on Friday ) was doing some fine work up in New York back in the summer and fall, and loses the eye cups for today's return to action. #8 BACHELOR'S BAIT got the diploma at first asking back in September, but as often happens with the youngsters, was sent to the sidelines for one reason or another. We always like when a trainer has the confidence to make an equipment/medication change after a victory, and life saver Matz introduces this one to Lasix for today's followup. 


Race  11

1.Fifth Title

2.Prince of Arabia

3.Sublime Appeal

#9 FIFTH TITLE lost by just three against what we would consider to be slightly tougher company when returning off a 2 1/2+ month respite at the end of February, and did such at a 31-1 offering. The figaro earned that day is but a few points below the top tier here, but maybe this one steps up his game in the second start off a layoff? #2 PRINCE OF ARABIA was guaranteed to be in the top three hen last seen, but worked out a sharp trip for Luca in an off the turf event. Gelding has some back class to him, and perhaps he's gotten his confidence back. #1 SUBLIME APPEAL is a fairly steady sort who got her Polaroid taken the only time he began from the pine, but we'll leave beneath as Maragh is colder than a Klondike Bar.  OFF TURF: 8-9-12-13(AE)-4


Race  12

1.Molto Bella

2.Violent Times

3.J P's Delight

#3 MOLTO BELLA is one fer two off of "legit" layoffs, ( with the score coming at this dx. ) and has faced some salty critters over the last year and a half. May need some pace to cut into, but there's a fair amount of speed signed on, so it's quite possible. #5 VIOLENT TIMES lost by only a noggin ( in front of a next out winner ) in her only "2nd off an absence" spin ( versus similar company ) and is two of four at Hallandale Beach. #2 J P'S DELIGHT has won four of five and what the hell's wrong with that? 


Race  13

1.Cash Call Kitten


3.The Queens Jules

#5 CASH CALL KITTEN failed by only 1 1/2 lengths in a near identical spot 21 days in the rear, and how on God's green earth do you argue with a 6:5-0-0 career record on firm ground at 7 1/2F - 1M ?  #2 FARLEY encountered a bunch of traffic in the 2/29 comebacker, and poses a bog threat if T-Gaff can get this one some daylight to shoot for. #1 THE QUEENS JULES has completed the exacta both times he was loaded first, and accomplished the same in one of two T to D forays.  OFF TURF: 4-1-8-9

Gulfstream      ( Spring ):        7-61        ( $69.20 )   Beatable  Favorites     0-3    ( 0% )      Favorites Win %       24-61    ( 39.3% ) ( As of Saturday morning )

Gulfstream      ( Winter ):        8-76       ( $141.00 )   Beatable Favorites    0-3    ( 0% )       Favorites Win %     230-76    ( 39.1% ) 

Aqueduct Winter  ( Final ):     65-427    ( $615.10 )  Beatable  Favorites  8-18  ( 44.4% )    Favorites Win %:   174-427 ( 40.8% ) 

Graded Stakes ( Current ):       2-8        ( $25.60 )    Beatable Favorites    N/A   (  N/A )      Favorites Win %:     2-8       ( 25.0% )

All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 64-411  ( $581.30 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-56 ( 32.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 139-411 (33.8%)  +/-: -29.2% against a 16.8% takeout  

Poly Tracks2013-16  (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-20 (All Final):2511-12426 ($21,132.80)  Beatable Favorites : 343-1222( 28.1% )Favorite's Win %: 4751-12529 ( 37.9% ) +/-: -15.3%  against a 16.8% takeout

Cumulative Stats      (All Final): 2596-12995 ($21,953.00)  Beatable Favorites : 350-1272( 27.5% )Favorite's Win %: 4739-12689 ( 37.4% ) +/-: -15.4%  against a 16.6% takeout