SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Gulfstream Selections & Analysis - 4/16
  
  


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Had one of our best days ever here on Saturday...

--2 winners of $75 & $5

--An exacta box of $2,593 ( our biggest ever here ) with our 70-1 second choice winning

--2 rolling Daily Doubles of $2,987 & $1,962 ( our biggest ever here ) 

--A consolation 4 of 5 payout in the rolling Pick 5 of $14,916

--And the biggie... a rolling Pk.3 of $57,935 !! ( our biggest ever here )

Most importantly, several of you showed your appreciation for our hard work by making donations to Old Friends at Cabin Creek & the Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance totaling $2,519.22 ( est. ), and I thank you for that.


I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O.


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


I want to thank those that read my column, and have recently opened up accounts as a result of their fondness for what they see here. If you have any questions at any time, you can reach me here on Disqus, or on Twitter @brooklyncowboy1. For those who dig the scene here, and would like to be part of it, registration on our home page is easy, and if you'd like, feel free to include my name in the referral box, and let me know, so I can try and get ya' some cool swag!


 

Gulfstream - 4/16

 

Race  1

1.Aerodynamic

2.Rosa Star

3.Catsoutofthebag 

#1 AERODYNAMIC has hit the board in all three starts to date ( improving in the speed figure department along the way ), culminating with a maiden breaking performance right here three dozen days ago. Gal ended up in a different barn afterwards for all her efforts, and they promptly affix the eye cups for the first time today. We like when a trainer isn't scared to make an equipment change off a winning effort, and trainer/jockey combo have done some nice work together. #2 ROSA STAR is a nibblah by rote ( 28:1-7-6 ), and the 15:0-5-5 Hallandale mark tells us that this gal seems like a nice "unders" candidate. #3 CATSOUTOFTHEBAG posted two of her career best numeros in her three spins on this course, and has speed, which is always dangerous at this locale.  OFF TURF: 6-4-1-5-2  NOTE: AS OF 7:44 P.M. Monday, WE ARE FLIP FLOPPING OUR TOP TWO SELECTIONS.

 

Race  2

1.Sophisticurl

2.Kitten's Dream

3.Sister Aurora 

First two year old race of the year, and these are always tough to decipher.  #4 SOPHISTICURL has been bottomed up in the synthetic for today's initial overture, and the 368 Tomlinson figure says that she should be able to handle today's distance just fine. Filly is a half to one who went 3-10 going 1X on the sand ( 31K ). #3 KITTEN'S DREAM is a full to a 1 for 3 dirt dasher ( 8K ), and we were always a big fan of the sire, who tried hard all the time ( 3:1-0-1 going short over a fast track ). Beware the one getting in light in a 4 1/2 furlong race. #6 SISTER AURORA is well bred for this trip, and is the first foal out of a dam who's never danced to this music, but with City Zip a couple'a generations back, we have no qualms in using.  NOTE: AS OF 7:45 P.M. MONDAY THE #6 WILL BE OUR TOP SELECTION.

 

Race  3

1.Uno Baby Bird

2.Legendary Prince

3.Bychance

#6 UNO BABY BIRD has given up the ghost in all four starts to date, but with a death of proven dirt speed signed on, this colt could prove to be dangerous if able to set some easy early splits. Slight edge. Feel free to draw a crayola through the initial foray of #5 LEGENDARY PRINCE, as January foal got smacked around pretty good at the beginning, but takes the biggest drop in the biz this afternoon, and has blinks slapped on as well. Leaving beneath as Maragh has been unable to chip away at a long losing streak, and has been making some awful decisions out there. #10 BYCHANCE has yet to finish in the top half of the field, but lost by just two & change in her first turf attempt and draws an outside slot for the first time.  OFF TURF:7-6-9-3-5  NOTE: AS OF 7:46 P.M. MONDAY, THE #10 WILL BE OUR TOP SELECTION.

 

Race  4 

1.Chic and Sexy

2.Cherorama

3.Varsovia

We like to be forgiving of some poor running lines in these bottom of the barrel events, and we'll do just that with the #2 CHIC AND SEXY. Toss the turf event, as she only displayed some early hoof that day, and we can always see our way clear of pre & post layoff efforts, as perhaps something went amiss in the former, and quite often they ain't cranked for the latter. All that being stated, the diploma earning performance at Calder was a crisp one. Gal gets in light. #6 CHERORAMA has been beset by back to back L/O lines, but there's a couple'a nice works on the docket for today's comebacker, and may surprise at a price. #4 VARSOVIA was a well beaten but well clear runner up in her only start after a break and may be moving late. 

 

Race  5

1.Stormy Derby Day

2.Unforeseen

3.Our Fantasy

#3 STORMY DERBY DAY showed marked improvement from the first start to the second, and did such despite being hiked up in class and stretching out for the 1st time. May foal should only improve with time, and pedigree tells us that the decent figure earned going long was likely not an aberration. #8 UNFORESEEN has partaken in the triple in three of four spins on the sod and makes all kinds of sense here. #1 OUR FANTASY drops a few pegs off a decent showing when going long on the lawn for the first time, but as pilot has been cold since bringing his tack southward, we'll slide beneath.  OFF TURF: 6-7-1-12-13(AE)

 

Race  6 

1.Rhythm With Soul

2.Joyful Heart

3.Conquer

#1 RHYTHM WITH SOUL hasn't been seen in a two Halloweens, but won at first asking on the gramma, and Kimmel knows how to have 'em prepped for the comebackers. 100K auction purchase can be all yours for less than 1/3rd of that this afternoon, and receives the hood for the first time, while having received the unkindest cut of all. #4 JOYFUL HEART is ( from a #'s perspective ) a fairly steady runner, and has enough speed to cause a ruckus early on. #8 CONQUER squandered a whopping 15 length lead in the most recent, and is an obvious threat if able to ration it out a bit better in this spot.  OFF TURF: 4-5-1-3-6

 

Race  7

1.K W Captain Hook

2.Neverstopdreaming

3.Genghis

#1 K W CAPTAIN HOOK was trounced when overmatched in a stakes event two months back, but gelding got the job done the only time he was available for purchase, and Lebron sticks around despite the recent disappointment. Some decent workouts on display for today's return to action. #4 NEVERSTOPDREAMING is confidently hiked up in class today, despite the poor effort when claimed on 3/12. Chestnut chap has lost his chestnuts since that day, and would be a handful if able to revert to either of his first two outings. #7 GENGHIS owns a 9:1-5-0 record at GP and has never been entered this cheaply.   NOTE: AS OF 12:51, DUE TO TWO LATE SCRATCHES, WE HAVE AMENDED OUR SELECTIONS TO 6-10-7.

 

Race  8 

1.Scar 

2.Earthquake

3.Hero Up

#3 SCAR had no palpable excuse for the disaster up in Oldsmar at the end of February, but the fig. earned in the sheepskin procuring performance just prior to that would lay over just about all of this allotment, and we'll give him a chance to make amends. #6 EARTHQUAKE is another one toting along a recent head scratching effort, but won two of three just prior to that, and should probably be kept in the mix. #2 HERO UP put it all together to get his first tally 22 days back, and sometimes when that light bulb comes on, it can stay on for a bit. LOVE animals shedding poundage off of a winning effort, and this one loses 96 ounces.  OFF TURF: 5-8-6-1-2

 

Race  9 

1.Cajun Brother

2.Silverly Enough

3.Absolute Grit

#1 CAJUN BROTHER was extremely gutsy when breaking from a disadvantageous post first time out, and basically going all the way to light up the tote board at 36-1 on March 14th. 449 Tommy tells us that it was probably not a fluke, and despite that score, may be overlooked parimutually once again. #4 SILVERLY ENOUGH has yet to finish out of the superfecta, and may prove to be an astute claim by Hess, as he's gotten back slightly more than 3/4's of the 32G claim price from the '19 finale. #8 ABSOLUTE GRIT closed out the triple in his lone "second off the L/O" spin, and has a touch of back class to boot. NOTE: AS OF 12:53, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #3 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  10

1.Prince of Thieves

2.Cucina

3.Ikeisgreat

#1 PRINCE OF THIEVES beat just two home in his last two trips to the frontside last year, but gets some much needed class relief for today's return to action. Recognize that the adj. Beyer from the penultimate turf dash was an 82.4 ( versus tougher ), and while there's a lot of meat on the bone between then and now, and Jaramillo sees fit to take the call. Timid selection. #6 CUCINA had a painful beginning when coming back off a half'a calendar layoff, but overcame that to get up in time beneath Johnny V. This one is reported to have been gelded after that score ( That's a reward ?? ) but sometimes those gelding announcements can be way off, so check the changes. Mott charge now 3:2-1-0 outside of stakes company. #12 IKEISGREAT has overcome some bad beginnings in three of four, and may take a step forward going over the blades for the 2nd time.   OFF TURF: 9-5-7-2-8  NOTE: AS OF 12:56, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #10 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  11

1.Valdocco

2.Gran Malbec

3.Pass the Gravy

#4 VALDOCCO has a 3:1-1-1 mark in "second off the break" go rounds, and has been in the $ a whopping 13 of 15 times beneath these palm trees. Improvement in the bug department comes along w/today's slight drop in class. #3 GRAN MALBEC has never seen these depths, and although the lone dirt deal left a lot to be desired, that was wayyyyyyyyyy back when, and this one is slightly better bred for the brown than the green. #2 PASS THE GRAVY slides down the ladder for tor today first start in more than 18 months; take a peek pre race, if possible. 

 

 


Gulfstream      ( Spring ):        10-74      ( $149.90 )  Beatable  Favorites   0-3    ( 0% )       Favorites Win %       28-74    ( 39.3% ) ( As of Thursday morning )

Gulfstream      ( Winter ):        8-76       ( $141.00 )   Beatable Favorites    0-3    ( 0% )       Favorites Win %     230-76    ( 39.1% ) 


Aqueduct Winter  ( Final ):     65-427    ( $615.10 )  Beatable  Favorites  8-18  ( 44.4% )    Favorites Win %:   174-427 ( 40.8% ) 

Graded Stakes ( Current ):       2-8        ( $25.60 )    Beatable Favorites    N/A   (  N/A )      Favorites Win %:     2-8       ( 25.0% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 64-411  ( $581.30 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-56 ( 32.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 139-411 (33.8%)  +/-: -29.2% against a 16.8% takeout  


Poly Tracks2013-16  (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-20 (All Final):2511-12426 ($21,132.80)  Beatable Favorites : 343-1222( 28.1% )Favorite's Win %: 4751-12529 ( 37.9% ) +/-: -15.3%  against a 16.8% takeout


Cumulative Stats      (All Final): 2596-12995 ($21,953.00)  Beatable Favorites : 350-1272( 27.5% )Favorite's Win %: 4739-12689 ( 37.4% ) +/-: -15.4%  against a 16.6% takeout



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