SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Gulfstream Selections & Analysis - 4/17
  
  

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Another big day for us here yesterday with two winners of $44 & $8 ( to go along with placings of 22-1, 17-1 & 7-2 ), two rolling doubles of $264 & $51, and another huge rolling pick three of $1,172. We now have a flat bet profit for both Gulfstream meets ( 151 races ).


I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O.


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 2 - #5 Crystallina ( Note: This was an error )


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Gulfstream - 4/17

 

Race  1

1.Bettin Onna Kitten ( AE )

2.Jimmy's Lass

3.Silver Palms 

#13 BETTIN ONNA KITTEN (AE) needs one to get out in order to draw into the body of the race, but should that come to fruition, just may be a live longshot in this spot. Gal got smacked around a bit at the onset when going long for the first time 22 days back, but lost by only four and change at 45-1 when finishing 5th of 12, and sheds three pounds off that effort. Sire excelled at this trip ( 12:3-6-0 on firm ground, banking more than 750K in the process ), and we'll bite at a price. #1 JIMMY'S LASS broke tardily from a disadvantageous post last time out, so if you can see your way clear of that, then the adjusted figaro from the bow of 56.1 ain't too bad when you compare it to the rest of the bunch. Gal gets in light today, and we've always liked failing sprinters on the stretchout, as quite often the betting public feels they don't have what it takes to get the job done. #8 SILVER PALMS has the hood removed & may perk up a bit.  OFF TURF: 6-5-10-3-7

 

Race  2

1.Hall Rich Legacy

2.Poseidon's Myth

3.Testified

#1 HALL RICH LEGACY hasn't shown a whole heck of a lot in the mornings for today's initial foray, but the 368 Tomlinson figure is honest enough, and this one is a half to Monster Mash, who went 12 for 37 in dirt dashes, netting more than $311,000 in the process. #6 POSEIDON'S MYTH has been bottomed up on the OTC synthetic for the debut, and is a half to a 2-12 dirt dasher, while having been sired by an excellent sprinter. #2 TESTIFIED is the first foal out of a mediocre dam, but the maternal grandsire was 3 of 7 dancing to this music over a fast track, and the mommy's mommy was 2 for 11 doing the same.   BEATABLE FAVORITE: #5 CRYSTALLINA doesn't make our first draft, so why would we accept 3-1 favoritism? ( Note: This was an error )

 

Race  3

1.Differential 

2.Sensational Ride

3.Millionaire Runner

These three and no more for all our rolling action. #5 DIFFERENTIAL showed zilch in the most recent, but is transitioned to the dirt for the first time, and has been doing fairly well over the stuff in the mornings. Gelding finds himself at his lowest level to date and is by no means hopeless. #6 SENSATIONAL RIDE is such a fun horse to root for, as his 47:19-8-6 ledger belies, but he's hit the skids a bit of late, as there has only been two horses behind him in his last troika. Kept in jail after the recent claim, and is now dropped in to the $6,250 level. #8 MILLIONAIRE RUNNER may come along late for a piece.  NOTE: AS OF 1:44, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #2 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  4 

1.Felony Melanie

2.Special Beach 

3.A Beautiful Day

#12 FELONY MELANIE is a bit light from a numbers perspective, but as we've said earlier, we like fading sprinters lengthening in distance on the sod for the first time and this one fills that bill nicely. Recognize that the dam was one for seven in 2X turf events ( 25G ), and daddy won 5 of 14 doing the same, making more than a million clams in the process. #3 SPECIAL BEACH has some nice speed which is always dangerous on this course. #8 A BEAUTIFUL DAY is another zippy sort who exits a race where three comebackers have gone 3:1-0-1 in their followup engagements ( two separate heats ). ALL three of 'em improved in the speed figure dept., by an average of 13.8 points.  OFF TURF: 5-7-8-1-2  NOTE: AS OF 7:42 P.M. WEDNESDAY, WE ARE FLIP FLOPPING OUR TOP TWO SELECTIONS.

 

Race  5

1.Chouchou de Boo

2.Maries Melody

3.Philly Special

#5 CHOUCHOU DE BOO outran her odds when losing by less than two lengths at 11-1 at a slightly tougher level on 3/21, and altogether, this one has done some nice work on the gramma. Wire to wire threat in another affair where we don't see the need to go any deeper than our trifecta selections. #4 MARIES MELODY was a slightly troubled but dead game runner up in this race three months back, but that effort must've taken a little starch out of the collar, as she hasn't been heard from since. Pre layoff pilot comes back, which is always reassuring, as it says that nothing untoward occurred that afternoon. #2 PHILLY SPECIAL drops for the second straight time today ad is an obvious factor.  OFF TURF: 11-3-7-8-4

 

Race  6 

1.Tiz Mischief

2.Mihos 

3.Sniper Shot

#1 TIZ MISCHIEF is 3:1-0-1 off the bench, and has a couple'a okat morning moves for today's return to action. Slim margin if fully cranked up, but then again, we won't know if he was fully cranked up until after the race, will we?  #8 MIHOS won his only "2nd off the layoff" spin, and that came from an outside post as well. Could be extremely dangerous late if a speed duel develops up front. #6 SNIPER SHOT is a bit of a fragile sort, as he's been beset by layoff lines after each of the three starts. The good news is that said starts were excellent, and despite the fact that this Pletcher charge gets his fourth different jock in as many calls to the post, it's a goodie in Looey.  NOTE: AS OF 1:48, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #5 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  7

1.Reservenotattained

2.Poppy's Destiny

3.Sovereign Warrior

#3 RESERVENOTATTAINED ( which is what "R.N.A." means in auction parlance ) has already earned back nearly 10X of the $3,500 purchase price from 2 1/2 years ago, and is properly spotted in his first try off what's nearly a two year hibernation. Four ear old has been conducting himself in an admirable fashion prepping for today's deal, and he returns sans a couple of pistachios. Take a peek in the paddock. #1 POPPY'S DESTINY is another who hasn't been seen since Hector was a pup, but according to DRF Formulator, Dwoskin is a decent 3-19 with those in the 320-620 day zip code, and is two of three w/today's jockola. #11 SOVEREIGN WARRIOR as good as any for the show dough.  OFF TURF: 3-12-1-4(MTO)  NOTE: AS OF 1:50, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #12 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  8 

1.Free the Beast

2.Just Smok'n 

3.Silver Tunes

#6 FREE THE BEAST slips in from the 11 hole to the three slot, and got her photograph taken the only time she had a "For Sale" sticker attached to her rump. Meeeeeekest of selections in a race where we were only able to eliminate one with our first draft. #1 JUST SMOK'N got bumped at the onset of the March 21st stakes try, and when you're 100-1, that simply can't happen if you're expecting a good result. Bobblehead takes over again, as he was aboard for the maiden breaker two back. #9 SILVER TUNES is 2:1-1-0 when available for purchase on the Hallandale sod, and this one always seems to get overlooked parimutually.  OFF TURF: 11-4-5-12(MTO)-10

 

Race  9 

1.Noon Time Gem 

2.Vinnie Van Go

3.Moonoverseba

Tho kept in jail after being claimed on the first of March, #3 NOON TIME GEM is nearly doubled up in price today by Sweezey, and we like to see that kind of confidence. Brown colt has partaken in the exacta in half of his GP jammies, & also owns a nice 3:1-1-0 mark with Double M in the stirrups. #4 VINNIE VAN GO has that type of "declining" mark here that we've grown to love ( 17:6-3-2 ), as it shows he has a schnoz for the line, and we have no problem including a runner who's won three of his last four. #7 MOONOVERSEBA always seems to put himself in a good position, as he's broken 4th or better in 16 of 17 career starts, and should be prominent in the lane once again.  NOTE: AS OF 1:51, DUE TO TWO LATE SCRATCHES, #'S 8 & 9 WILL BE OUR SECOND & THIRD CHOICES RESPECTIVELY.

 

Race  10

1.See Below

2.See Below

3.See Below

As we did here for a winner on Saturday, with a main player on the Also Eligible list, we're gonna give you two different scenarios:

Should #13 Metcalf (AE) make it into the body of the race, our selections will be #6 RECONVENE--#13 METCALF (AE)--#16 CARDIAC KID

Should #13 Metcalf (AE) be declared, our selections will be #4 PORT HUNTER--#7 CHOCOLATE BAR--#6 RECONVENE 

OFF TURF: 7-10-3-9-12


Gulfstream      ( Spring ):        12-85     ( $201.70 )   Beatable  Favorites   0-3    ( 0% )       Favorites Win %       30-85    ( 35.3% ) ( As of Friday morning )

Gulfstream      ( Winter ):        8-76       ( $141.00 )   Beatable Favorites    0-3    ( 0% )       Favorites Win %     230-76    ( 39.1% ) 


Aqueduct Winter  ( Final ):     65-427    ( $615.10 )  Beatable  Favorites  8-18  ( 44.4% )    Favorites Win %:   174-427 ( 40.8% ) 

Graded Stakes ( Current ):       2-8        ( $25.60 )    Beatable Favorites    N/A   (  N/A )      Favorites Win %:     2-8       ( 25.0% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 64-411  ( $581.30 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-56 ( 32.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 139-411 (33.8%)  +/-: -29.2% against a 16.8% takeout  


Poly Tracks2013-16  (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-20 (All Final):2511-12426 ($21,132.80)  Beatable Favorites : 343-1222( 28.1% )Favorite's Win %: 4751-12529 ( 37.9% ) +/-: -15.3%  against a 16.8% takeout


Cumulative Stats      (All Final): 2596-12995 ($21,953.00)  Beatable Favorites : 350-1272( 27.5% )Favorite's Win %: 4739-12689 ( 37.4% ) +/-: -15.4%  against a 16.6% takeout


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