SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Gulfstream Selections & Analysis - 4/18


One was the loneliest number for us here yesterday, but we still have a flat bet profit for our Gulfstream coverage.

Just a reminder that for today's Grade One selectiona & analysis of the Apple Blossom from Oaklawn Park, merely go back one page. 

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O.

Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 2 - #5 Crystallina

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Gulfstream - 4/18


Race  1

1.Gracie's Dream

2.Bettin Onna Kitten 

3.Bit Coin Queen

#12 GRACIE'S DREAM hasn't done much to get the pulse racing of late, but with the winless type, we permit ourselves to go anywhere in their P.P.'s, as they're winless for a reason, ya know. Gal has ( for this group ) a couple of decently adjusted figs from way back when, and that includes a career best figaro when switching from brown to green. #10 BETTIN ONNA KITTEN ( cross entered yesterday, so check thechanges ) just may be a live longshot in this spot. Gal got smacked around a bit at the onset when going long for the first time 23 days back, but lost by only four and change at 45-1 when finishing 5th of 12, and sheds three pounds off that effort. Sire excelled at this trip ( 12:3-6-0 on firm ground, banking more than 750K in the process ), and we'll chunk in at a price. #8 BIT COIN QUEEN posted her best ( of two races, yes ) # yet on a "good" course last time out, and if that can be prorated to her best "firm" numero, then she poses a big threat.  OFF TURF:  3-1-7-11-4  NOTE: AS OF 12:12, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #5 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.


Race  2


2.Mystic Comin Home

3.Bella Gianna

#10 MARKISTAN has hit the board in four of five over a glib surface, draws decently, and from an itty bitty sampling, Delgado is 5:2-2-0 with locally based, 2nd off the snag dirt dasherswho crashed the party < 32 days back ( $4 & $8 ). #3 MYSTIC COMIN HOME appears to be clear speed of this deal, goes from an apprentice to a journeyman, and Pita makes some bread with GP mdclm. dirt sprinters who were 1-2-3 less than 32 days back ( 5-1 or lower ), as the normally 6% conditioner is 3-10 in that regards ( $4, $8 & $13 ). #8 BELLA GIANNA only bested half the field at 2-1 when trying a change of tactics in the most recent, but sometimes it can take a couple'a starts for a horse to figure that out.  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #5 CRYSTALLINA doesn't make our first draft, so why would we accept 3-1 favoritism?


Race  3

1.Cat's Astray

2.Palace Two Step


#3 CAT'S ASTRAY has done more nibblin' than winnin' in her career, but as we've had this race narrowed down to just three choices, we have no problem selecting the steadiest of the lot. #3 PALACE TWO STEP has yet to finish off the board, but sheds some weigh & drops some class for today's comebacker, and pre-layoff bug returns. #2 STATED had no palpable excuse for the recent flop, but the penultimate tally was honest enough, and her best work has come at this distance.  OFF TURF: 6-5-3-2-7


Race  4 


2.Chase Runner

3.Mr Chaplin

#2 KRACHENWAGEN ( an amusement park in Ontario, which is only fitting for this Ontario bred ) shoots for the hat trick today, and we like this one's ability to send or rate just a bit. Hard to knock, given the last two Beyer Speed Figures. #1 CHASE RUNNER is a tad lighter than the above in the #'s area, but is 3 for 5 @ this dx. ( 0-15 otherwise ), and is 3-4 when starting from the innermost two slots over a fast surface ( 0-11 from the three hole on outward ). #5 MR CHAPLIN may tramp along for a share.


Race  5

1.Tio Will


3.Ghost On a Mission

#2 TIO WILL outran her odds when finishing 7th of 12 on the local sand, but a lifetime best figure was posted that afternoon, and this one is actually slightly better bred for the blades. This one is a ha;f to a 4 fer 22 turf router ( 106K ), and we've always loved fading dirt sprinters stretching out in their first grass attempt. Bombs away !  #1 ASTRONAUT undergoes a slew of changes for today's secondary outing ( new jock, new trainer, new venue, first time turf, and first time going two turns ), and is well bred for today's surface while picking up an excellent longshot rider. #8 GHOST ON A MISSION improved from the first start to the next, drops 32 ounces, and is a four year old facing younger at a point in the year when it means something.  OFF TURF: 9-10-11-8-12


Race  6 

1.Poppy's Destiny


3.War Act

#3 POPPY'S DESTINY ( also put in on Friday ) hasn't been seen in exactly one and a half calendars, but $300,000 auction purchase with a touch of back class can be all yours for 16 large this afternoon. Could be dangerous if fully cranked up and able to catch a flyer. #1 POSEIDEN had a memorable adventure last time out, as this gutsy gal went coast to coast like butter and toast to procure the sheepskin in just her second try. We always like when a trainer is confident enough to make an equipment or medication change after a score, and the blinks are now affixed. #4 WAR ACT has improved with each passing start, culminating with a maiden breaking effort over this oval a fortnight ago. Who knows where his ceiling is ? 


Race  7

1.Freedom's Flight

2.Opus North

3.Turn of Events

#1 FREEDOM'S FLIGHT improved by about 12.2% in the lone "second off the L/O" foray, and right off the bat, if that were to occur, then this hoss could be boss ! Colt turned in a couple of sharp performances beneath today's pilot as well, and we'll give him the nod. #2 OPUS NORTH showed zippo in the return, but did some fine work in '19, and would be an obvious player if ready, willing and able. #6 TURN OF EVENTS marks Nik Juarez' return to action off of an injury, and while we'll always look for a reason to put such a rider on top, he was on an 0-56 slump prior to that, so we'll leave this solid runner underneath here.  OFF TURF:  13(MTO)-5-7-4-12


Race  8 

1.Front Loaded


3.South Sea

#5 FRONT LOADED sure is a steady Eddie, ain't he? Six year old always gives a good account of himself, and is now at his lowest level to date. Could use with some pace to cut into today, but definitely deserves to be left in the hopper. #3 VINCERO was kept in jail after the purchase two back, and had a slightly troubled trip when dropped in class on a wet track -- not something he's always dug, and the end result was a poor one. Breen moves the gelding back up the ladder today, so he must feel good about the prospects. #2 SOUTH SEA returns off a bit of a break, but fits with these.   NOTE: AS OF 3:28, DUE TO THE TRACK BEING SLOPPY, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS WILL BE 5-7-6.


Race  9 

1.Goodbye Brockley

2.Bienville Street

3.Sean's Idea

#6 GOODBYE BROCKLEY is 1 for 2 in 2nd off the shelf forays, 2 for 3 when going 1X to 2X, and as none of those races overlap, that makes her 3 for 5 in those pertinent categories. As for the rest of her record? Oh-fer-11. If mare is able to get her Fanny to the finish line first, it'll be at a healthy mutuel. #12 BIENVILLE STREET has done her finest work at this dx., and completed the triple in her lone try in a second off the layoff spot. #2 SEAN'S IDEA has partaken in the superfecta in all three T to D attempts, and goes from an apprentice to a journeyman in this spot.  OFF TURF: 8-5-9-6-2  NOTE: AS OF 3:33, DUE TO THE TRACK BEING SLOPPY, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS WILL BE 2-3-12-4-8.  NOTE: AS OF 4:41, DUE TO A BEVY OF LATE SCRATCHES THE #6 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.


Race  10

1.Leo's Diamond

2.Like You


#3 LEO'S DIAMOND got the job done right outta the box for Margotta, and loses some appreciable weight off that tally. 368 Tommy says to us that the victory was likely no aberration, and this one will likely be overlooked parimutually once again. Meeeeekest of selections in a race that's difficult to gauge. #1 LIKE YOU went all the way versus slightly weaker 45 days back, and three returnees from that heat went 1 for 3 next out, with an avg. improvement of 17 points in the numbers area. #4 GEMO won this race on 3/11 & is eligible for it once again because of the tag affixed. 


Race  11

1.Miss Auramet

2.Hidden Facts


These three and no more for all our rolling action. #2 MISS AURAMET has hit the board in seven of right turf deals, goes for three in a row today, and she drops five lb.'s off a win, which of course we always dig. Need more? The runner up from the last win came back to get her photo taken, upping her Beyer figure by 7.6% in the process. Several things to like for a runner who's done nothing but improve in every single start. #6 HIDDEN FACTS gets some needed class relief today, and could perk up a bit. #1 ORIGINATOR was victorious the only time she returned off a sabbatical, and owns a win & a placing from as many turf sprints when beginning from the inside three posts, and one of those was right here at Hallandale Beach.  OFF TURF: 5-15(MTO)-11-9-1  NOTE: AS OF 3:36, DUE TO THE TRACK BEING WET, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS WILL BE 5-10-11-15(MTO)-9


Race  12

1.Mohanna Queen

2.Rack Daddy

3.Rye Street

#1 MOHANNA QUEEN hasn't sen the scene since 9/20, but there are a couple of crisp morning moves on the ledger for today's return, and gal is entered at a rock bottom price. Recognize that the adjusted BSF from the debut was a 57.6, and although there's a lot of water under the bridge since then, she'd be uuber dangerous if able to get anywhere close to that numbah. #3 RACK DADDY is another one returning off an elongated absence, but also takes the plunge and gets in light as well. #4 RYE STREET has only beaten home two in three calls to the post, but goes two turns to one, and Luis is enticed to ride; completes our troika sliding down the ladder.   NOTE: AS OF 3:44 P.M., DUE TO THE TRACK BEING SLOPPY, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS WILL BE 5-6-4-1-8.


Gulfstream      ( Spring ):        13-95     ( $209.50 )   Beatable  Favorites   0-3    ( 0% )       Favorites Win %       32-95    ( 33.2% ) ( As of Sat. morning )

Gulfstream      ( Winter ):        8-76       ( $141.00 )   Beatable Favorites    0-3    ( 0% )       Favorites Win %     230-76    ( 39.1% ) 

Aqueduct Winter  ( Final ):     65-427    ( $615.10 )  Beatable  Favorites  8-18  ( 44.4% )    Favorites Win %:   174-427 ( 40.8% ) 

Graded Stakes ( Current ):       2-8        ( $25.60 )    Beatable Favorites    N/A   (  N/A )      Favorites Win %:     2-8       ( 25.0% )

All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 64-411  ( $581.30 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-56 ( 32.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 139-411 (33.8%)  +/-: -29.2% against a 16.8% takeout  

Poly Tracks2013-16  (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-20 (All Final):2511-12426 ($21,132.80)  Beatable Favorites : 343-1222( 28.1% )Favorite's Win %: 4751-12529 ( 37.9% ) +/-: -15.3%  against a 16.8% takeout

Cumulative Stats      (All Final): 2596-12995 ($21,953.00)  Beatable Favorites : 350-1272( 27.5% )Favorite's Win %: 4739-12689 ( 37.4% ) +/-: -15.4%  against a 16.6% takeout