SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Gulfstream Selections & Analysis - 4/19
  
  

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Just two chalky winners & a successful Beatable Favorite on a mess of a day yesterday.


I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O.


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


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Gulfstream - 4/19

 

Race  1

1.Saucy Tune

2.Sense a Million ( AE )

3.I'm Prayingforthat ( AE )

#9 SAUCY TUNE showed a touch of early hoof in the comeback attempt, but essentially folded up the tent turning into the lane, which was in essence a "gimmee" off the turf deal. Filly posted an adjusted 53.3 in the turf bow ( at a higher level ), and gets in light for today's 2nd off the layoff try. #13 SENSE A MILLION (AE) needs one to get out in order to get in, but should that come to bear, would be toting a decent penultimate turf try, as well as finding herself at her lowest level to date. #15 I'M PRAYINGFORTHAT is another on the outside looking in, but has a decent turf resume' and exits a race where four retunees have gone 4:2-0-0 in their followup outings.  OFF TURF: 16(MTO)-5-2-10-3  NOTE: AS OF 12:11, DUE TO THIS RACE BEING OFF THE TURF AND ON A FAST TRACK, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS WILL BE 10-7-1.

 

Race  2

1.Pocket of Candy

2.Memorize

3.Suz

#6 POCKET OF CANDY won her only start off a L/O, won her only start when losing the blinkers ( granted, it was off a break ), and won her only start when beginning from the outside. NONE of those races overlap, so what we have is a cumulative 3 for 3 stat with none of those races overlapping. #3 MEMORIZE won her first start off the claim ( in  basically the same spot ), and makes all kinds of sense once again, cutting back a 1/16th. #1 SUZ is a speedy sort who has hit the board both times she's broken from the inside and poses a big threat if able to catch a flyer. 

 

Race  3

1.Privilegio

2.Ingreido

3.Consilium

#6 PRIVILEGIO was an honest enough third when being transitioned to the brown stuff 22 days back, and although the figure earned from that day was less than anything he's ever posted on the sod, the pedigree tells us that he's much better bred for the sandy stuff, and we're expecting a big leap forward today. #8 INGREIDO bested half the field when switching surfaces about a month ago, and the 402 Tommy tells us that there's ample room for improvement this afternoon. #3 CONSILIUM has closed out the exacta in three of four and deserves to be left in the mix here.  NOTE: AS OF 12:15, DUE TO A KEY LATE SCRATCH OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS WILL BE 3-2-8.

 

Race  4 

1.Angelic Nugget

2.Lalali

3.Fast Venezuela

#2 ANGELIC NUGGET has beaten home only five runners in her last nine calls to the post, but that last outing was sneaky good, and we'll tell you why...The Beyer earned for that turf try was substantially better than the other start on the gramma -- and better than her Tomlinson figure for the grass should be. Okay, now that being said, we've prorated that to her best # on the dirt, and come up with an adjusted 53.6. There's speed inside & outside of 'Nugget, so there's no "need for the lead" -- just hoping for a nice pocket trip. #3 LALALI goes turf two dirt & two turns to one for today's drop in class off the claim, and the connections would need a win to merely break even on the 3/18 purchase -- should a claim occur as well. Jock from last score returns. #1 FAST VENEZUELA sheds weight & class for today's 3rd off the L/O spin. 

 

Race  5

1.Wind Dreamer 

2.Rearrange

3.Eternal Peace 

#1 WIND DREAMER is decently bred for today's initial stretchout, and loses the eye cups for today's second off the L/O go round. Most timid of choices. #5 REARRANGE outran her odds in a nice way when closing out the superfecta in her first try off of nearly a yearlong hibernation, ( @ 39-1 ) and should move forward with that under her girthstrap. #2 ETERNAL PEACE hasn't seen the scene in a couple of St. Patrick's Days, but was an honest 5th of 10 in the overture, and has been performing admirably up at Payson Park for today's return to action.  OFF TURF: 3-1-5-12-9

 

Race  6 

1.Bareeqa

2.Scatnap

3.Free to Fly

These three and no more for all of our rolling action. #3 BAREEQA -- 9 for 23 with Danny Gargan...3 for 19 with others ( Miracle of miracles !! ) is a perfect 2 of 2 on a firm Hallandale Beach turf course with Looie in the irons, and makes all kinds of sense in this spot. #5 SCATNAP is 3:1-0-1 in second off the shelf attempts on the verde, has the quintessentially perfect "declining" career mark that we always like to see ( 35:10-6-3 ) as it tells us that she has a schnoz for the line, & owns a nice ability to rate or send, also. #2 FREE TO FLY is one for three right here at Gulfstream Park and may spice things up a touch.  OFF TURF: 5-8-2-9-3

 

Race  7

1.Tiz Possible Dear

2.Brookes All Mine

3.Quick Point

#2 TIZ POSSIBLE DEAR had a slightly erratic journey when finishing 4th three weeks ago, but on the whole, this gal has done her best work right here at GP ( 16:4-1-4 ), and gets the nod in a fairly weak event. #4 BROOKES ALL MINE has bounced back and fourth from two trainers over her last troika of starts, and with good reason, as this gal has been in excellent form since last October; 6:2-3-0 local mark adds to the allure. #5 QUICK POINT finished 3rd in the lone "3rd off the shelf" try and is as bad as any for the show dough. 

 

Race  8 

1.Aficionado

2.Kaufy Bean ( AE )

3.Kid Mercury

#3 AFICIONADO was in the rear with the gear at a zillion to one back @ the end of March, but that was likely a prep for today, as this one has dome much better over the blades than on the main track. Lone T to D deal was a goodie, as he lost by only a length at 10-1. Encouraging to see Vasquez return despite the most recent. #14 KAUFY BEAN (AE) needs a bit of luck to face the starter this afternoon, but should that be the case, would have a huge shot based on the wire job three weeks in the rear. #1 KID MERCURY has been "rising" in the BSF department since starting things out at the Shore last August, so right off the bat, who knows where the ceiling is? Will need to find a seam at some point in time.  OFF TURF: 4-9-15(MTO)-5-8  NOTE: AS OF 11:18, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #12 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  9 

1.Il Faraone

2.Areyoutalkingtome

3.Dexter Road

Very competitive race here.  #2 IL FARAONE ( a hotel in Italy ) owns a 5:2-1-1-0 ledger when going from two turns to one ( better then the rest of his races ), and one of those tallies came when a whopping 27 lengths behind at 55-1 beneath today's pilot !! Silky Sullivan type needs a hot pace to do his best work, and rates a slight edge. #5 AREYOUTALKINGTOME gave backers a few extra dollars to tip the Taxi Driver when scoring at big balloons two back, and followed that up with a slightly troubled but strong placing a baker's dozen days later. Logical. #6 DEXTER ROAD rounds out the top three. 

 

Race  10

1.Temple City Terror 

2.Cariba

3.Seranitsa

#7 TEMPLE CITY TERROR was a bit flat in his first try off a break, but four year old was doing some nice work before being shelved, and trainer goes for the five pound weight break with the bug assigned. Meek choice in a tough race to decipher. #6 CARIBA broke some hearts when losing by a sliver in her first start on the lawn on the 7th of March ( @ 24-1 ), but the bloodlines say to us that the placing was not a fluke, and we'll incorporate once again. #4 SERANITSA has a modicum of back class, and was last seen in a heat where seven returnees amassed a cumulative 3-1-2 mark, with SIX of them showing improvement in the speed figure dept. Works up north tell us she may be ready.  OFF TURF: 3-1-2-7-9

 

Race  11

1.First in Command 

2.Better With Age 

3.Makisupa ( GB )

#5 FIRST IN COMMAND has lost ground late in the game in each start to date, but we've always had a weakness for fading sprinters going long on the lawn for the first time, and Hennig adds the blinks today as well. That last start is of some relevance, as trainer is on the "Mark" when doing that to his maiden turf routers who have started already ( 29-1 or less ), as he's 2 for 10 ( $24 & $10 ). #6 BETTER WITH AGE comes in today off of successive career best efforts, and is now claim protected. #10 MAKISUPA (GB) may plod along for a piece.  OFF TURF: 4-7-8-12-13(MTO)


Gulfstream      ( Spring ):      15-107     ( $220.30 )   Beatable  Favorites   0-4    ( 0% )       Favorites Win %     36-107    ( 32.7% ) ( As of Sunday morning )

Gulfstream      ( Winter ):        8-76       ( $141.00 )   Beatable Favorites    0-3    ( 0% )       Favorites Win %     230-76    ( 39.1% ) 


Aqueduct Winter  ( Final ):     65-427    ( $615.10 )  Beatable  Favorites  8-18  ( 44.4% )    Favorites Win %:   174-427 ( 40.8% ) 

Graded Stakes ( Current ):       2-8        ( $25.60 )    Beatable Favorites    N/A   (  N/A )      Favorites Win %:     2-8       ( 25.0% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 64-411  ( $581.30 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-56 ( 32.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 139-411 (33.8%)  +/-: -29.2% against a 16.8% takeout  


Poly Tracks2013-16  (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-20 (All Final):2511-12426 ($21,132.80)  Beatable Favorites : 343-1222( 28.1% )Favorite's Win %: 4751-12529 ( 37.9% ) +/-: -15.3%  against a 16.8% takeout


Cumulative Stats      (All Final): 2596-12995 ($21,953.00)  Beatable Favorites : 350-1272( 27.5% )Favorite's Win %: 4739-12689 ( 37.4% ) +/-: -15.4%  against a 16.6% takeout


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