SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Gulfstream Selections & Analysis - 4/23
  
  

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Just a couple'a chalky winners here on Sunday, as we're right about at the breakeven point for the meet.

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I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O.


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 3 - #3 Awesome Light  Race 10 - #5 Trilby


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Gulfstream - 4/23

 

Race  1

1.Gracie's Dream ( AE )

2.Dama de Noche

3.Tapizar Girl

#13 GRACIE'S DREAM (AE) hasn't done much to get the pulse racing of late, but with the winless type, we permit ourselves to go anywhere in their P.P.'s, as they're winless for a reason, ya know. Gal has ( for this group ) a couple of decently adjusted figs from way back when, and that includes a career best figaro when switching from brown to green. Cross entered Saturday, so check the changes. #6 DAMA DE NOCHE has been extremely disappointing in the last two, but a couple of the adjusted figaros prior to that were ( for this group ) honest enough, and most of those came without Lasix & with today's returning pilot. Chance for improvement. #3 TAPIZAR GIRL is slowly approaching professional maiden territory, but has gotten smacked around a bit in the last duet, and the # from the most recent says that this one fits.  OFF TURF: 5-10-4-13(AE)-3

 

Race  2

1.Crespucula

2.Trinni Sunshine

3.Cabrina

#3 CRESPUCULA showed very little in her lone start over a fast track, but this one is a half to a 3-12 dirt dasher, and posted an adjusted 49.3 in her lone "2x to1X/second off the layoff" try ( at her lone start at this level ). #4 TRINNI SUNSHINE hung up a nice adj. numero in her only race in the 16K ranks, an picks up an excellent longshot rider this afternoon. #6 CABRINA overcame a bit of trouble when starting things out in the overture, but closed out the superfecta at nearly 100-1, and may move forward off that effort.  NOTE: AS OF 12:23, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #7 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  3

1.Bella Bionda

2.Lovely Lee

3.Sandbah

#2 BELLA BIONDA has lost ground in the lane in each & every outing, but goes over the blades for the first time today, and momma happened to be one for two going short on the sod. Maternal granddam was two of three doing the same, and gel gets in light. #12 LOVELY LEE is slowly but surely figuring things out, and cuts back to teh distance of her best speed figure to date. Employing the "Diamond in the Rough" theory with the #8 SANDBAH, as there's a nice 48 & 1 breeze amidst a bevy of ordinary morning moves for today's bow, and late bloomer has an apprentice assigned for today's primary engagement.  OFF TURF: 7-14(AE)-10-11-13(AE)  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #3 AWESOME LIGHT doesn't make our first draft, so why would we accept favoritism?

 

Race  4 

1.Joplin

2.Kaufy Futures

3.Looking for More

#7 JOPLIN goes two turns to one, turf to dirt, and finds herself at her lowest level thus far. Mild edge in a race where we were unable to eliminate more than two with our first draft. #2 KAUFY FUTURES was a lively runner up in this race 43 days back, but we'll keep beneath because of the seven pound weight addition. #9 LOOKING FOR MORE can be forgiven the first try off the claim, as she got beaten up a bit @ the beginning, but had hit he board in five straight & 7 of 8 just before that, and obviously deserves your respect. 

 

Race  5

1.Majestic Luna

2.Carbon Data

3.Eight Ain't Enough

#1 MAJESTIC LUNA is a steady of unspectacular sort who owns a two for four mark when breaking from the pine on the grass ( compared to being 1-18 otherwise ), and goes from an apprentice to a journeyman today. You almost need some carbon dating to find out when the last time #5 CARBON DATA ran, but it's pretty close, as this one hasn't been seen in 20 months. Having said that, this one got his photo taken the only time he returned off a break, and has done nice work here. #2 EIGHT AIN'T ENOUGH was a well beaten but well clear runner up in his lone "true" start off a break, and that came in one of his two tries at Hallandale Beach ( the other was a score ). Recognize that the place & show horse from the recent win finished 2nd and 3rd next out, upping their BSF's an average of 8 pts. in the process.  OFF TURF: 2-3-8-6-1  NOTE: AS OF 12:23, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #8 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  6 

1.Untitled

2.Gray Beau

3.Winking At Thedude

#2 UNTITLED down the lane. #5 GRAY BEAU has partaken in the superfecta in 8 of 9, and when you add that to the 9 of 12 lifetime ITM rate at this distance, this one has the makings of a decent "unders" candidate. #6 WINKING AT THEDUDE was claimed for 25 large from a winning effort 66 days ago, but is now dropped in for 16K ( uh oh ). Useable, yeah, but this one needs to win just for the connex. to break even should another claim ensue. Take a peek in the warmups.  NOTE: AS OF 12:25, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #4 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  7

1.Gemonteer

2.Dr. Edgar

3.Grand Journey

#6 GEMONTEER has beaten just one home in his last duet, but for all intents & purposes, was likely overmatched in those events, and it's good to see Vasquez come back for a return engagement in this spot. Chestnut chap was a half length shy of having won three straight prior to the recent flops, and you have to dig the 7:3-2-0 local ledger, dont ya'? #11 DR. EDGAR is but a lip shy of a poyfect 4 x 4 mark in "3rd off the L/O" jammies, and is MUCH better outside of stakes company, so today's class relief may do wonders. #9 GRAND JOURNEY is 6:5-1-0 at this dist., and what the hell's wrong with that?  OFF TURF: 3-1-10-7-13(MTO)

 

Race  8 

1.Leo's Diamond

2.Money Never Sleeps

3.Bird Map

#3 LEO'S DIAMOND got the job done at first asking right here, and although the number came back a bit lowish, the 369 Tomlinson figure tells us that there's ample room for improvement, and Margotta wisely keeps this one protected against the claim today. #2 MONEY NEVER SLEEPS is 3:1-1-1 locally, with the showing coming at 17-1 just a bakers' dozen days ago. #5 BIRD MAP was claimed out of a winning effort by the suddenly chilly Saffie Joseph, who's on an "un-miraculous" 14 race losing streak. We'll chunk in, but with an ounce of trepidation.  NOTE: AS OF 12:26, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #4 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  9 

1.The Green Mo'ster

2.Thunder Ride

3.Award Winner

#6 THE GREEN MO'STER brings a decent last race number along for today's 2nd off the shelf engagement, but what really piques our interest is the blazing 46 4/5th's morning move a week ago -- something that is completely out of character for this one. The second best move that day was a full 1.30 seconds slower, and we wouldn't be surprised to see this one a bit closer to the pace today. #5 THUNDER RIDE has a "For Sale" sticker attached to his rump for the first time today, and is 1 for 3 at G.P.. #8 AWARD WINNER ( uncharacteristically ) displayed no speed in the most recent, but Bravo is enticed to hop on, and we'll give this Lynch charge one more shot.  OFF TURF: 6-1-7-9-13(AE)

 

Race  10

1.Bahama Kitten

2.Trilby

3.Sweet Story

#1 BAHAMA KITTEN is a single for all looking to mingle; play of the day. BEATABLE FAVORITE/2ND CHOICE: #5 TRILBY is smartly dropped down a peg after showing at the same level claimed from two back, and we admire the 15:4-3-2 boxscore at GP. Blinkers are part of the makeup today, and Berrios ( who had a splendid day here six days ago ) gets the assignment. #9 SWEET STORY is 8-32 going this distance of ground on the gramma ( oh-fer-13 in all other outings ) and by dropping a touch, avoids the gal who bested her in three straight.  OFF TURF: 1-8-7-9-11  

 


Gulfstream      ( Spring ):      17-118     ( $233.50 )   Beatable  Favorites   0-4    ( 0% )       Favorites Win %     38-118    ( 32.7% )(As of Thursday morning) 

Gulfstream      ( Winter ):        8-76       ( $141.00 )   Beatable Favorites    0-3    ( 0% )       Favorites Win %     23-76     ( 39.1% ) 


Aqueduct Winter  ( Final ):     65-427    ( $615.10 )  Beatable  Favorites  8-18  ( 44.4% )    Favorites Win %:   174-427 ( 40.8% ) 

Graded Stakes ( Current ):       2-8        ( $25.60 )    Beatable Favorites    N/A   (  N/A )      Favorites Win %:     2-8       ( 25.0% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 64-411  ( $581.30 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-56 ( 32.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 139-411 (33.8%)  +/-: -29.2% against a 16.8% takeout  


Poly Tracks2013-16  (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-20 (All Final):2511-12426 ($21,132.80)  Beatable Favorites : 343-1222( 28.1% )Favorite's Win %: 4751-12529 ( 37.9% ) +/-: -15.3%  against a 16.8% takeout


Cumulative Stats      (All Final): 2596-12994 ($21,953.00)  Beatable Favorites : 358-1290( 27.8% )Favorite's Win %: 4913-13116 ( 37.5% ) +/-: -15.4%  against a 16.6% takeout


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