SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Gulfstream Selections & Analysis - 4/24
  
  

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Nice day for us here yesterday with a profitable three bagger ( $58, $2 & $5 ), two cold exactas of $10 & $17, and an ice cold $74 triple. Oh yeah -- toss in a couple of successful "Beatable Favorites" for good measure.  

We now have a flat bet profit for our entire Gulfstream coverage.

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I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O.


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 1 - #7 Fayez  Race 10 - #11 Candy Coma


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Gulfstream - 4/24

 

Race  1

1.Big's Gray Day

2.Ninetydaysofwinter

3.Sultannes Crown

#11 BIG'S GRAY DAY has only beaten home the chase ambulance in all three starts to date, but goes long on the lawn for the first time, and we've had some success with fading sprinters doing such for the first time. Grey gelding was dropped by a gal who went 2 for 5 in turf routes ( 20K ), and the paternal granddam won the only time she went long on the lawn ( 15G ). Additionally, the mommy's daddy was a turf champion, and we like the concept of a gate move for today's 2nd off the L/O try. #4 NINETYDAYS OF WINTER drops for the 3rd straight time today and gets an upgrade in the jockey department. #6 SULTANNES CROWN has improved with each passing start, owns a lot of zip, and sheds a couple'a pounds.  OFF TURF: 6-9-4-2-5  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #7 FAYEZ

 

Race  2

1.Gran Brandy

2.Best of Wildwood 

3.Lady Archa

#5 GRAN BRANDY was a lively runner up versus slightly weaker right here on March the 8th, and rates the slightest of edges in a race where we were unable to eliminate anyone with our first draft. #3 BEACH OF WILDWOOD has been freshened up since essentially being eased two months ago, but won over this oval in the start just before that, and the works are looking good for today's comebacker. #7 LADY ARCHA has changed addresses after each of her last three calls to the post, and with good reason, as this one has scored in three of four, and four of her last six dirt tries. Horse for the course got the job done in her only spin when beginning from the outermost slot. NOTE: AS OF 2:22 A.M. FRIDAY, WE HAVE AMENDED OUR SELECTIONS TO 6-5-7.

 

Race  3

1.Lucy's Interest

2.Platinumcents

3.Gran Michelle

#4 LUCY'S INTEREST hasn't done much to get the heart thumping of late, but y'all know we like to look back anywhere in a maiden's past performances to find something positive, ( as they're at this level for a reason, you know ) and the bay filly has a couple of good running lines at the bottom of the page. Another meek selection. #1 PLATINUMCENTS hasn't been seen since Hector was a pup, but there's a bullet gate breeze on display, and the 387 Tommy says to us that perhaps the grisly debut was an aberration; encouraging to see Jaramillo ride. #5 GRAN MICHELLE has been conducting her morning affairs quite well for today;s initial foray, and is bred nicely for this sorta deal. 

 

Race  4 

1.Cultivation

2.I'm Prayingforthat

3.Borrowed Angel

#6 CULTIVATION ( cross entered yesterday, so check the changes ) flopped with no palpable excuse in the most recent, but the penultimate start was a goodie, and we'll pin our hopes to a rebound -- but demand value. #3 I'M PRAYINGFORTHAT finds herself at her lowest level to date, and cuts back from two turns to one while exiting a race where two of four have returned to win. #2 BORROWED ANGEL ( also put in on Thursday ) gets Lasix and blinkers for today's secondary outing while taking the biggest drop in the game. Saez now enlisted. 

 

Race  5

1.Sturgeon

2.Chaps

3.What's Inside

#7 STURGEON is 18:6-5-0 at this distance ( 12:1-0-1 otherwise ), and has won three of her last six when available for purchase. Chance to rebound at a price. #3 CHAPS is a steady if unspectacular sort who hasn't been seen in quite some time, but conditioner knows how to have 'em prepped off the bench, and we'll toss beneath as rider has picked up a few wins after an oh-fer-122 start to 2020. #4 WHAT'S INSIDE has done fine work right here ( 5:2-2-0 ) and appears to be trending in the right direction.  OFF TURF: 1-4-2-8-3

 

Race  6 

1.Politely Crowned

2.Lady Fiorella

3.The Gospel of John

#5 POLITELY CROWNED hasn't faced the starter in a while, but returns with a "For Sale" sticker attached to her rump for the first time, and is reacquainted with hood this afternoon. Another timid selection in another tough heat to decipher. #6 LADY FIORELLA hasn't hit the board yet this year, and is another who can be all yours for 40 large in this spot. #1 THE GOSPEL OF JOHN has been beset by numerous layoff lines, but her lone victory came right here, and has the hood affixed for the first time; completes our troika of selections of those now in with a tag. 

 

Race  7

1.Jersey Joe B

2.French Quarter

3.Phantom Ro

#2 JERSEY JOE B has only beaten home one in the last duet, but we always go back three starts when sortin' things out, and the February outing was a crisp one. 13:5-2-2 mark at the distance leaps off the page, and we'll give him a shot w/ the bug assigned. #3 FRENCH QUARTER sure is an old warhorse, isn't he? Brown gelding makes his 66th career start in this spot, and is still finding his way into the winner's circle now more than ever, having gotten his photo taken after five of his last eight. #6 PHANTOM RO owns a win & a placing from as many "3rd off the break" attempts, but is halved in price off the recent purchase, so caveat emptor.  NOTE: AS OF 12:21, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #8 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  8 

1.New Day Dawning

2.Nope ( Ire )

3.Secret Stash ( Ire )

#4 NEW DAY DAWNING won her only start off the bench and has shot off two bullets in preparation for today's return to action. Lasix once again part of the equation after running without it in the Forward Gal. Still yet another moderate selection in a race with none eliminated at first perusal. #1 NOPE (IRE) has the wonder drug administered for today's North American bow, and totes the lightest impost of her career. #2 SECRET STASH (IRE) has some back class and can land a share.  OFF TURF: 7-6-1-2-4

 

Race  9 

1.Marialuisa

2.Hunting Season

3.Believe Indeed

#2 MARIALUISA got through the maiden ranks in a career effort 50 days in the rear, and although the number came back a bit lowish, sometimes when the light bulb comes on, it can stay on for a while ( especially with the youngsters ). Will need some pace up front to cut into. #5 HUNTING SEASON split two next out winners when completing the exacta in her only try off an absence and also finished third the only time her hooves touched this surface. #6 BELIEVE INDEED rounds out the tri.

 

Race  10

1.Kobe Fifty Two

2.Nothin But Net

3.Restless Rocker

Employing the "Diamond in the Rough" methodology for #3 KOBE FIFTY TWO here, as there's one crisp 48 & 3 bullet breeze amongst a slew of ordinary moves. $45,000 auction purchase can be all yours for a quarter of that in today's finale, and this is a four year old facing some younger foes, which definitely means something this time of year. Sire was 3:2-0-1 in one turn dirt events, and the paternal grandsire was a goodies who won his only dirt dash. You'd have to figure that the newest "miracle man" will have this one ready. #5 NOTHIN BUT NET completes our basketball exacta based on the solid back to back placings, drop in class, and recent snipping. #2 RESTLESS ROCKER is 2nd off the bench & loses the eye cups.  OFF TURF: 9-11-3-4-5  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #11 CANDY COMA doesn't make our first draft, so why would we accept 9/5?

 


Gulfstream      ( Spring ):      20-128     ( $298.70 )   Beatable  Favorites   0-6    ( 0% )       Favorites Win %     42-128    ( 32.8% )(As of Friday morning) 

Gulfstream      ( Winter ):        8-76       ( $141.00 )   Beatable Favorites    0-3    ( 0% )       Favorites Win %     23-76     ( 39.1% ) 


Aqueduct Winter  ( Final ):     65-427    ( $615.10 )  Beatable  Favorites  8-18  ( 44.4% )    Favorites Win %:   174-427 ( 40.8% ) 

Graded Stakes ( Current ):       2-8        ( $25.60 )    Beatable Favorites    N/A   (  N/A )      Favorites Win %:     2-8       ( 25.0% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 64-411  ( $581.30 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-56 ( 32.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 139-411 (33.8%)  +/-: -29.2% against a 16.8% takeout  


Poly Tracks2013-16  (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-20 (All Final):2511-12426 ($21,132.80)  Beatable Favorites : 343-1222( 28.1% )Favorite's Win %: 4751-12529 ( 37.9% ) +/-: -15.3%  against a 16.8% takeout


Cumulative Stats      (All Final): 2596-12994 ($21,953.00)  Beatable Favorites : 358-1290( 27.8% )Favorite's Win %: 4913-13116 ( 37.5% ) +/-: -15.4%  against a 16.6% takeout


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