SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Gulfstream Selections & Analysis - 4/25
  
  

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Just one lonely winner on the day yesterday ( a 12-1 M.L. runner who paid 9 clams ), but we had a cold $24 exacta & two successful "Beatable Favorites" -- one of them, our 1,300th Beatable Favorite selection here. Over our 6 1/2 years, the ever popular category has sheved approximately 10% off the winning favorite rate, thereby saving y'all some bread along the way. 

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I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O.


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 5 - #8 Basquiat  Race 10 - #10 Vegas Kitten


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Gulfstream - 4/25

 

Race  1

1.We Connected

2.Katara Pass

3.Makinalegacy

#8 WE CONNECTED has shown very little in all the starts to date, but goes short on the sod for the first time in this spot, and we always permit a runner not one -- but two starts under a particular set pf circumstances before writing them off. That being said, this one is a half to a 2 for 3 turf sprinter ( 38K ), and the sire finished second in his lone dance at this deal ( 10K ). Gelding drops a touch, sheds three pounds, and note the slight improvement in speed last time out. #10 KATARA PASS was inexplicably spotted in a route last time out ( after performing miserably in the other two long distance tries ), but the penultimate outing going 1X was a goodie -- and at 34-1 no less. Chance to surprise at a price. #4 MAKINALEGACY more than outran his odds when finishing 7th of 12 at a zillion to one last time out, and the number from that day came back comparable to many others in here. 2nd off the L/O try drops seven lb's. off that jammie, and bug got home a bomber here last week.  OFF TURF: 3-6-7-1-9  NOTE: AS OF 12:16, DUE TO THIS RACE BEING OFF THE TURF AND ON A FAST TRACK, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS WILL BE 8-7-11.

 

Race  2

1.Onezy's Dream

2.Teacher Drama

3.Wicked Solution

#6 ONEZY'S DREAM has improved over each of his three turf attempts, so who knows where her ceiling is in that regards. Price play. #7 TEACHER DRAMA's most recent may not appear to be much, but the adjusted figaro came back a 63.6, and if you look at this bunch, how many do you see with that number in here? Both wins came at this dist., and a bug is now assigned. #1 WICKED SOLUTION missed by just a sliver in the most recent, and should be no worse than third here for all you show punters out there.  OFF TURF: 10-1-2-4-7  NOTE: AS OF 12:22, DUE TO THIS RACE BEING OFF THE TURF AND ON A FAST TRACK, WE HAVE AMENDED OUR SELECTIONS TO 2-6-9.

 

Race  3

1.Trisomia

2.Holy Katz

3.The Big Joker

#2 TRISOMIA has shown zilch in the morning for today's overture, but daddy was two for five in dirt dashes, daddy's daddy was two for three doing the same, and mommy's mommy was 3-12 as well. Mild selection. #3 HOLY KATZ is another who hasn't gotten much attention in the mornings for today's initial foray, but there's some decent sprinter's pedigree in the family tree; we'll be eaving beneath as Juarez is on an oh-fer-60 or so run dating back to pre-injury. #8 THE BIG JOKER hasn't been seen in nearly 2 1/2 years, but has a nice gate move for the comebacker and "miracle" trainer adds the hood for a runner who is now sans tes-tee-klees.  NOTE: AS OF 12:25, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #6 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  4 

1.The Mighty Judge

2.Mystical Moon

3.King Leonardo

#5 THE MIGHTY JUDGE encountered some trouble when losing by only two a month back, and the lone two returnees from that affair ran 1-3 in the same event next time out, essentially replicating their prior speed figures in the process. A single for us. #3 MYSTICAL MOON has partaken in the exacta in three straight & four of five; best work has come at this distance. #1 KING LEONARDO is 12:2-4-1 on the Hallandale sod ( compared to being 6:0-1-1 otherwise ), and has a nice shot at some minor spoils if able to secure pocket position early on.  OFF TURF: 3-5-9-10-12

 

Race  5

1.Pachanga Patrol

2.Mukulwitz

3.Tons of Gold

#5 PACHANGA PATROL has a couple of decent morning moves on display for today's 1st start, and we especially love the mile work 13 days back. Why ? how often to you see a horse with a workout 1/8th of a mile fast than the distance of his first race ? Sire was a $1.2 million purchase who was up the track in his lone foray, but we have A.P. Indy, Maryfield ( 4 fer 14 in one turn dirt deals ) and Fu Peg ( 2 of 3 ) in the genealogy. #3 MUKULWITZ hung up an adjusted 74.5 in the only one turn dirt spin over a glib surface, and may be overlooked because of the routing flop. #6 TONS OF GOLD has a decent overall body of work and can land a share. BEATABLE FAVORITE: We have no idea why the #8 BASQUIAT ( a famed painter who's buried in Greenwood cemetary in Brooklyn ) is 2-1 here. 

 

Race  6 

1.Some Say So

2.Miss Miami

3.Tide Storm

#8 SOME SAY SO is confidently hiked up in class after the crisp runner up finish two months back, and this one is cycling in the right direction. Meeeeeek choice in a race where were were only able to eliminate one with our first draft. #9 MISS MIAMI hasn't been in action since the beginning of the year, but was doing some fine things just before the respite, and is an obvious factor if fully cranked up. #5 TIDE STORM rounds out the top three.  OFF TURF: 6-7-9-10-1(MTO)

 

Race  7

1.Mystery Bank

2.Shamrocket

3.Venezuelan Hug

#3 MYSTERY BANK was spotted against winners by Saffie 27 days back ( something that's rarely done ) who has been less "miraculous" of late, but grey guy did anything but disgrace himself when posting a lifetime best # that afternoon. Three year old goes long on the lawn for the second time, and has a legit shot against our secondary selection, who'll likely go off as the favorite. Feel free to draw an upwards arrow next to the #5 SHAMROCKET, as this one has been very professional in his last three outings, and note that C-Squared/Irad are 8:5-1-1 in tandem right here with turfers in the 1-55 day bracket ( $4.12 ROI ). #4 VENEZUELAN HUG was claimed off a solid showing right here on 3/25, and Gargan keeps him protected against the claim today. Why ? Well take a look at that uncharacteristic bullet workout a dozen days ago, and you'll know why. ( Especially for a runner who's never shown ANY speed whatsoever. )  OFF TURF: 5-4-6-2-8

 

Race  8 

1.Ice Tea

2.Max K.O. 

3.Squeezadios

Not really feeling the heat from this race, so tread lightly.  #7 ICE TEA was a bit of a lemon when finishing a no excuse 3rd as the 2-1 favorite in a small stakes 67 days in the rear, but is available for purchase now, and has won five of his last six in that regards ( excluding a lone clunker that preceded a 16 1/2 month break ). You may get a square offering here on a runner who's 11 of 24 lifetime. #3 MAX K.O. has some decent zip & scored in his only go round @ the trip. #5 SQUEEZADIOS finished 2nd in his only one turn to two turn try ( a lifetime best effort ) and totes the lightest impost of his career.  NOTE: AS OF 4:07 P.M. THURSDAY, WE ARE FLIP FLOPPING OUR TOP TWO SELECTIONS.

 

Race  9 

1.Soros

2.Americanus

3.South Bend

Another race with no first draft eliminations...  #6 SOROS was a bit flat in the comebacker, but hey, they all can't be winners, kid. Lone tally was an impressive one right here around turkey time, and runner is reunited with Jaramillo here ( they paired for a solid placing in the two turn dirt bow -- something that's never easy to do ). #2 AMERICANUS was a well beaten but well clear runner up the only time he returned off a sabbatical, and is well bred to go long. #5 SOUTH BEND has a bunch of back class and should be rolling late in the game.   NOTE: AS OF 12:27, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #1 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  10

1.Maryland Pride

2.Go Away

3.New Year

#5 MARYLAND PRIDE overcame some trouble in the most recent to close out the triple at 22-1 on March 11th, and can fare a bit better with a tidier onset. Tepid nod. #2 GO AWAY was trounced vs. slightly tougher, but had hit the board in three straight just prior to that, and deserves another chance back with conditional claimers; encouraging to see Zayas stick around. #3 NEW YEAR shoots for the hat trick here today, and it's well within reach, especially when you see that seven comebackers from the last have amassed a cumulative 7: 2-1-1-1 ledger ( from four different races ) with an average Beyer improvement of 3.1 pts. per.  OFF TURF: 1(MTO)-2-4-7-8  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #10 VEGAS KITTEN doesn't make our first cut, so why would we accept favoritism?

 

Race  11

1.Hembree

2.Rare Form

3.Borracho

#3 HEMBREE is a classy sort who's been a fringe player when facing tougher foes over the last 16+ months ( 12:1-3-0 ), and although this one has been on a fast track but once, it resulted in an honest 3rd place finish way back when. Eligible for this race because of the date condition, and we're thinking this 6YO "horse" ( you hang on to dem walnuts, buddy ! ) will be a bit closer to the pace w/today's jockey switch. #6 RARE FORM finished 3rd in a Grade 3 event when going two turns to one ( his only time doing such ) and has some zip. #7 BORRACHO is two for four at the dx. -- 1 for 8 otherwise -- and can pick up a check in this spot.  NOTE: AS OF 12:31, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #1 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  12

1.Honor This

2.Money House

3.With a Bit of Luck

#2 HONOR THIS is an excellent prorated play in this spot, as his most recent turf try was his best one yet, and if you prorate that to his finest dirt attempt, what you get is an adj. 58.1 in a 3rd place finish at a whopping 88-1. You may still get some nice value here. #4 MONEY HOUSE has been beset by back to back breaks in the action, but the lone dirt spin was an honest one, and rates a chance if able to get back to that. #8 WITH A BIT OF LUCK showed some speed in the turf bow, but is slightly better bred for the sand, and drops in weight & class while getting off the pine. 

 


Gulfstream      ( Spring ):      21-138     ( $287.90 )   Beatable  Favorites   0-8    ( 0% )       Favorites Win %     45-138   ( 32.6% )(As of Saturday morning)

Gulfstream      ( Winter ):        8-76       ( $141.00 )   Beatable Favorites    0-3    ( 0% )       Favorites Win %     23-76     ( 39.1% ) 


Aqueduct Winter  ( Final ):     65-427    ( $615.10 )  Beatable  Favorites  8-18  ( 44.4% )    Favorites Win %:   174-427 ( 40.8% ) 

Graded Stakes ( Current ):       2-8        ( $25.60 )    Beatable Favorites    N/A   (  N/A )      Favorites Win %:     2-8       ( 25.0% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 64-411  ( $581.30 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-56 ( 32.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 139-411 (33.8%)  +/-: -29.2% against a 16.8% takeout  


Poly Tracks2013-16  (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-20 (All Final):2511-12426 ($21,132.80)  Beatable Favorites : 343-1222( 28.1% )Favorite's Win %: 4751-12529 ( 37.9% ) +/-: -15.3%  against a 16.8% takeout


Cumulative Stats      (All Final): 2596-12994 ($21,953.00)  Beatable Favorites : 358-1290( 27.8% )Favorite's Win %: 4913-13116 ( 37.5% ) +/-: -15.4%  against a 16.6% takeout


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