SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Gulfstream Selections & Analysis - 4/26
  
  

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Just one on yesterday's card for us. 

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I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O.


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


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Gulfstream - 4/26

 

Race  1

1.G Q Coverup

2.Oak Bluffs

3.Earth

#6 G Q COVERUP had a slightly troubled start in the most recent ( a rarity for him ), and spit the bit at the halfway point. The penultimate outing was a lively one, when finishing 4th at 40-1, in losing by less than three, and you should recognize that the six year old owns a 3:1-1-0 mark in 3rd off the layoff tries ( 20:2-1-4 otherwise ), with the placing yielding a career best number. #3 OAK BLUFFS is another who overcame a bit of trouble to come along late in the game to fail by only four last time out ( @ 23-1 ), and the BSF from that day was honest enough. #1 EARTH ( reminds me of when I got an autograph from MLB pitcher Bill "Spaceman" Lee, who wrote "Earth" below his name ) is 3 for 10 when breaking from posts 1-3 sprinting on the sod, and 0-15 in all other starts combined.  OFF TURF: 7-1-3-9-5  NOTE: AS OF 12:29, DUE TO THIS RACE BEING OFF THE TURF AND ON A FAST TRACK, OUR AMENEDED SELECTIONS WILL BE 9-3-1.

 

Race  2

1.Brother Aaron

2.Chinomadito

3.Queen's Mason

#6 BROTHER AARON has been working decently for the return and finds himself at his lowest level to date; always encouraging to see a pre-layoff pilot come back. Slight edge. #2 CHINOMADITO has partaken in the superfecta in his last six outings over a glib surface ( after doing such in two of nine similar situations prior to that ), so it's encouraging to see this one figuring things out. Comes in today off of three career best numeros, and we see no reason to exclude. #5 QUEEN'S MASON is second off the shelf & drops to an all time low.  NOTE: AS OF 4:39 P.M. FRIDAY, WE ARE FLIP FLOPPING OUR TOP TWO SELECTIONS.

 

Race  3

1.Queen Letizia

2.Leishlanick

3.Aznavour

#8 QUEEN LETIZIA ( the Queen of Spain https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Queen_Letizia_of_Spain ) showed nada in the bow ( pay no attention to the "Taken up" comment, as she was well beaten well before that ), but this gal is MUCH better bred for the brown than the green, and she draws ideally while picking up a decent bug. This one is a half to 2 for 9 & 1 for 8 dirt dashers, and as for the family tree ? -- sire 2-2 at this dance and the paternal grandsire was 7 for 16 doing the same. Things to like, but demand value. #1 LEISHLANICK makes her third start off the layoff this afternoon and totes the lightest impost of her career. Needs to hustle early. #5 AZNAVOUR could perk up with blinker loss today in this lackluster affair. 

 

Race  4 

1.Abarrio Forever

2.Beating the Odds

3.Golden Tap

#5 ABARRIO FOREVER lost by just four and change in the initial turf sprint, but we always give a runner two opportunities under a particular set of circumstances before writing them off, and there are no world beaters signed on. Meeeeeek choice in a heat where we were only able to eliminate one with our first draft. #3 BEATING THE ODDS posted her lone tally & career best # in her only start off a hiatus, and it came without eye cups, which are now left in the tack room. #7 GOLDEN TAP may wake up going 2X to 1X for the 1st time.  OFF TURF: 5-8-7-9(MTO)-11  NOTE: AS OF 12:32, DUE TO THIS RACE BEING OFF THE TURF AND ON A FAST TRACK, WE HAVE AMENDED OUR SELECTIONS TO 8-5-4.

 

Race  5

1.Gitana

2.Goodbye Gaby

3.Independent Miss

#1 GITANA showed stark improvement from the first start to the second and sheds seven lbs. while sliding in to the pine. Another timid choice in another wide open jammie. #8 GOODBYE GABY has done very little to disgrace herself in the troika of starts thus far, and after the 5th, 4th & 3rd, we'll slide into the number two spot. After posting five figures of 47-51 to begin her working life, #3 INDEPENDENT MISS moved forward in a big way when hanging up a 61 in a showing right here on 3/29, and now gets Saez in the irons. 

 

Race  6 

1.Totono

2.Kaufy Bean

3.Unlockthepotential

After showing improvement over six straight calls to the post, #2 TOTONO regressed in the most recent when encountering some traffic heading into the first turn. If you can be forgiving of that, then what you're looking at is a solid placing at a zillion to one in front of a next out winner. May get overlooked in this spot. #3 KAUFY BEAN went coast to coast like butter and toast when facing tougher two fortnights back, and performed admirably in his only "2nd off the L/O" spin as well. #10 UNLOCKTHEPOTENTIAL has been in the money in three of four & five of seven, and can land a share in this spot.    OFF TURF: 7-8-9(MTO)-1-10

 

Race  7

1.Sarasota Boy

2.K W Captain Hook

3.Captured by Fate

We have positively no feel for this race whatsoever, so tread lightly.  #5 SARASOTA BOY split the field at 74-1 last out, and  as that was a lifetime best speed figure, we'll nibble at a price. #2 K W CAPTAIN HOOK was 4th of 7 in his only try off an absence, and got the job done in his only outing versus platers; a few decent morning moves on the docket for today's return to action. #3 CAPTURED BY FATE moved UP in class after the promising bow, and got the job done versus special weight foes over this oval on March 12th. Surprising to see a young three year old with some upside back in for a tag, but we'll toss him in the cake batter.  NOTE: AS OF 4:42 P.M. FRIDAY, WE ARE FLIP FLOPPING OUR TOP TWO SELECTIONS.

 

Race  8 

1.You're the Best

2.Erv's Wench

3.Paris Lights

#2 YOU'RE THE BEST overcame an inside draw and a bit of nervousness to complete the triple at first asking six weeks back, and the 388 Tommy says to us that this one is eligible to do even better today. Note that eight returnees from that affair have amassed a cumulative 8:3-0-2 mark from just four independent events. The average Beyer improvement for that allotment  was 14.4 points, with all but one moving forward. The more we type... #4 ERV'S WENCH has gotten better and better and better and has shot off a bullet since last facing the starter. Logical. #3 PARIS LIGHTS is a January foal with a maturity advantage over just about the entire allotment, and brings along some nice workouts & a healthy Tomlinson figure for today's first start. 

 

Race  9 

1.Year of the Kitten 

2.American Ninja

3.Projected ( GB )

#2 YEAR OF THE KITTEN hasn't done much to get the pulse racing over the last duet, but we always go back three starts to find something positive, and the January 18th deal was a decent one when finishing a close up 4th behind a next out winner. Bit of an anomaly here, as he's toting his 10th different pilot in as many starts. #3 AMERICAN NINJA is 3 of 12 here ( 1 of 10 elsewhere ) & drops a peg. #1 PROJECTED (GB) is the clear class of this field, but hasn't won in more than 2 1/2 years & drops for the 5th time in 6 outings, so caveat emptor.  OFF TURF: 11-5-10-12-7

 

Race  10

1.Sarasota County

2.Jake Rocks

3.Hop Kat

#1 SARASOTA COUNTY is transitioned back to the sand for today's third off the layoff try, and has done well on the stuff before, so we'll give him a feeble nod, despite the jockey being winless for quite some time. #5 JAKE ROCKS has beaten just two home over as many trips to the frontside, but gets off the wood and may liven up a bit at a decent offering. #2 HOP KAT ( cross entered on Friday, so check the changes ) was visually impressive when winning in drawing away fashion 344 days ago, but as often happens with the youngsters, was sent to the sidelines for one reason or another afterwards. Obvious threat if ready off a calendar type hibernation.

 

Race  11

1.Queen'splate Nolan

2.Beach Traffic ( AE )

3.Inconveyance

We won't be delving any deeper than the top two for all our rolling action.  #10 QUEEN'SPLATE NOLAN will be an "Omnifig" ( "...as rare as the ivory billed woodpecker ) should our secondary selection not draw in, in such that all ( both ) of his outings supersede anything that anyone in today's finale has posted so far. Colt takes the biggest drop in the game today, and according to DRF Formulator, this 18% conditioner doubles that rate (12-33 ) when doing that to his turf stayers returning in less than 42 days at 6-1 or < ( $2.37 return on investment ). Not sure why this $70,000 animal is in for a fraction of that today, but how can we resist? #15 BEACH TRAFFIC (AE) needs a lot of luck to be saddled up today, but should that come to fruition, will be bringing along a couple'a solid Beyer speed figures. #9 INCONVEYANCE takes another drop for today's 2nd off the layoff start.  OFF TURF: 10-1-8-13(AE)-12  NOTE: AS OF 12:36, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #11 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 


Gulfstream      ( Spring ):      22-150     ( $292.90 )   Beatable  Favorites   1-10  ( 0% )       Favorites Win %     50-150   ( 33.3% )(As of Sunday morning)

Gulfstream      ( Winter ):        8-76       ( $141.00 )   Beatable Favorites    0-3    ( 0% )       Favorites Win %     23-76     ( 39.1% ) 


Aqueduct Winter  ( Final ):     65-427    ( $615.10 )  Beatable  Favorites  8-18  ( 44.4% )    Favorites Win %:   174-427 ( 40.8% ) 

Graded Stakes ( Current ):       2-8        ( $25.60 )    Beatable Favorites    N/A   (  N/A )      Favorites Win %:     2-8       ( 25.0% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 64-411  ( $581.30 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-56 ( 32.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 139-411 (33.8%)  +/-: -29.2% against a 16.8% takeout  


Poly Tracks2013-16  (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-20 (All Final):2511-12426 ($21,132.80)  Beatable Favorites : 343-1222( 28.1% )Favorite's Win %: 4751-12529 ( 37.9% ) +/-: -15.3%  against a 16.8% takeout


Cumulative Stats      (All Final): 2596-12994 ($21,953.00)  Beatable Favorites : 358-1290( 27.8% )Favorite's Win %: 4913-13116 ( 37.5% ) +/-: -15.4%  against a 16.6% takeout


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