SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Gulfstream Selections & Analysis - 4/30
  
  

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We closed out the week with a profitable three bagger on Sunday ( $12, $27 & $10 ) to go along with an Ice Cold Daily Double of $237 along with an Ice Cold $73 triple. What was interesting about trhe winners was that the first was amended when the race was taken off the turf & put on a fast track, the second was amended nearly two days prior, and the third was an "off the turf" selection. I guess you can call that an "Unnatural Hat Trick" !


I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O.


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


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Gulfstream - 4/30

 

Race  1

1.Tiger's Back

2.Strong Ending 

3.Abdaa

#6 TIGER'S BACK hasn't done much to get the pulse racing, but we've always had a fondness for lightly raced dirt dashers going long on the lawn for the first time, and this one has some nice turf pedigree. Encouraging to see Edgar stick around, and note that this $370,000 auction purchase can be yours for nearly 1/15th of that today. Maternal granddam was 8:5-2-0 going over firm ground, and we'd like to see this one forwardly placed early on. #3 STRONG ENDING has done decent work on the turf so far, and is confidently doubled up in price after the claim a week & a half ago. #1 ABDAA completed the superfecta at 22-1 first time out, and slides in seven slots for today's secondary outing.  OFF TURF: 8-3-11-12-4-5

 

Race  2

1.Kitten's Dream

2.La Mama Chula

3.Baciami Ora

#4 KITTEN'S DREAM showed zilch at first asking a fortnight back, but we always give runners two opportunities under a particular set of circumstances before moving on, and not only is this one a half to a 1 for 3 dirt dasher ( 8K ), but daddy was a dead game runner who did excellent work here ( 10:3-2-0 ). Filly goes from an apprentice to a journeyman today, and as you can never underestimate experience ( no matter how bad ) in these juvenile heats, we'll swing away at a price. #7 LA MAMA CHULA has been quite pedestrian in the A.M.'s for today's initial foray, but dam was 1 for 6 dancing to this music, and jockey/trainer combo click at an 18% rate in tandem ( 3-17 ) with locally based dirt dashers ( FTS-31 days ) at 30-1 or less ( better than their stats apart ). #5 BACIAMI ORA has a healthy 365 Tomlinson figure for today's initial spin, and is a half to a couple'a 1 fer 4 sand sprinters.  NOTE: AS OF 12:14, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #2 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  3

1.Uncle Curly

2.Monmouth Dr. 

3.Crupi's Pizza Dom

#9 UNCLE CURLY goes turf to dirt, two turns to one, and is essentially halved in price today by Bates. Dropped for the 3rd straight time today, so right off the bat, caveat emptor. Take a peek during the warmups if possible. You can basically say the exact same thing for the #6 MONMOUTH DR today, who was a sharp runner up when facing tougher at this trip two starts back. Likely favorite, and should be no worse than second in this spot. #4 CRUPI'S PIZZA DOM completes our troika of selections with the same narrative, and sheds seven pounds off of a 3 3/4 length defeat.  

 

Race  4 

1.Lucidus

2.Perfect Enough

3.Beach Traffic

#3 LUCIDUS has had multiple breaks in the action on the worktab for today's overture ( "Overturrrrrrre....curtains, lights. This is it -- we've hit the heights !" ), but a couple of the morning moves aren't half bad -- including one over the blades. Four year old has a maturity edge over several signed on, and while this is the first foal out of an unraced dam, daddy was 1 for 3 over firm ground, sire was a champ who went 7:6-1-0 on the gramma, and there are definitely no worldbeaters signed on. #5 PERFECT ENOUGH has hit the board in half of his career starts and, and that's not "perfect" but good "enough" to include. #11 BEACH TRAFFIC has hung up back to back solid figaros and must be included.  OFF TURF: 3-5-11-7-6

 

Race  5

1.Bimini

2.Mystic Nile

3.Papa's Little Girl

#4 BIMINI was in the rear with the gear last time out, but finds herself at her lowest level to date, and is showing two strong workouts for today's return to action. Slight edge. #8 MYSTIC NILE closed decently to miss by 1 1/2 lengths 2 days ago, and is another one who has never seen these depths. #1 PAPA'S GIRL was visually impressive when besting weaker right here four weeks back, and the figure earned from that afternoon tells us that's today's slight ascension up the ladder shouldn't be too much of an issue. 

 

Race  6 

1.Gloriously

2.Fuddled ( Ire )

3.Humor Me Dixie

#5 GLORIOUSLY improved in a big way when returning off an elongated absence and sprinting on the sod for the first time, and drops five pounds off that effort. While a bounce is always possible, we're assuaged that 18% Jerkens is 3 of 12 ( 25% ) with turf sprinters who hit the board < 68 days back and are 9-1 or undah ( sub category of 2 fer 5 in the maiden special weight ranks ). #9 FUDDLED (IRE) encountered a touch of traffic in the initial foray, but rallied nicely to complete the exacta under identical circumstances nonetheless. Should be no worse than 2nd here for a trainer who's been very erratic of late. #8 HUMOR ME DIXIE hasn't been seen since Hector was a pup, but finished 3rd behind a next out winner when debuting @ the Pea Patch, and has been performing admirably in the mornings at Casse's private farm.  OFF TURF: 8-4-7-1-9  NOTE: AS OF 2:59, THE #6 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  7

1.Bean Counter

2.Augusta Moon

3.Toleration

#1 BEAN COUNTER is a bit of a money burner, but only lost by half a length in a similar situation a month back, and with the short run into the first turn, we envision Saez putting the pedal to the metal early on to gain tactical position. From a tight sampling, DRF Formulator has Todd clicking @ a 3 for 4 rate with 3rd off the L/O mid level turf stayers who were 1-2-3 last time out ( 6-1 or below ). #3 AUGUSTA MOON has yet to miss a superfecta and should be no worse than second here for all you place punters. #9 TOLERATION was an honest runner up in her lone turf try off a break, and has partaken in the triple in all three outings with a "For Sale" sticker attached to her rump.  OFF TURF: 3-1-10-11(MTO)-8

 

Race  8 

1.Rodeo Red

2.Dream d'Oro

3.Legal Deal

We have positively no read on this race, so tread lightly. #11 RODEO RED was close up to a hot pace before giving up the ghost at the halfway point last time out, so if you can draw a line through that -- as well as the outing without blinkers prior to it -- then what you have is a legit showing when dead heating w/a next out winner at the end of January. The lone dirt attempt over a glib surface yielded a decent ( for this bunch ) number, and Jaramillo sticks around. #2 DREAM D'ORO finished 2nd in his lone try when in for a tag and now has blinkers affixed. #1 LEGAL DEAL ( like so many 2YO's ) was sent to the sidelines after his primary call to the post, and returns in the maiden claiming ranks while having been gelded.  Did I already say that we're not jamming on this deal? Okay...just wanted to make sure y'all knew that.  NOTE: AS OF 12:17, DUE TO A KEY LATE SCRATCH WE HAVE AMENDED OUR SELECTIONS TO 6-2-1.

 

Race  9 

1.Admiral's Win

2.Ghostly Beauty

3.Our Closure

#11 ADMIRAL'S WIN is a neck shy of a 3 for 5 ledger when returning from a break ( 2-23 otherwise ), and has done okay work at the trip as well ( 3 fer 17 ). Recognize the fact that this lightly raced eight year old has won her last two starts when available for purchase. #1 GHOSTLY BEAUTY is a steady if unspectacular sort who seems like a perfect "unders" candidate. #7 OUR CLOSURE rounds out the top three ( which is our way of saying "Hey, it's getting late, and we're running out of creativity !"  OFF TURF: 5(MTO)-7-11-3-6(MTO)

 

Race  10

1.Sean's Idea

2.Flat Awesome Jenny

3.Midnight Soiree

#6 SEAN'S IDEA has been freshened up a bit after a couple of disappointing efforts, and rates the meekest of selections in a race with no first glance eliminations. #4 FLAT AWESOME JENNY has backslided ( or backslid, if you prefer ) a bit since getting the hat trick this winter, but had an awkward start two back, and as the three aforementioned scores all came with an outside move, probably didn't dig running down on the inside 18 days back. Chance to make amends. #2 MIDNIGHT SOIREE has hit the board in her quartet of local engagements, and that includes a "2nd off the layoff" deal ( just like today ). May mare may land a share. 

 

Race  11

1.Proquester

2.Bodie Cody 

3.Preacher Marsee

#4 PROQUESTER most definitely appears to be figuring things out these days, as his five best turf outings ( from a numbers perspective ) have come in his five last tries on the green stuff. Yeah, I know you may not want to respect those Oldsmar #'s, OR today's pilot, OR the fact that he's been between 15 & 50-1 during that time, but those are the sort of things we look for when ferreting out a longshot. Dare we make this one a single? We dare. #3 BODIE CODY will be the only one we'll utilize as a saver in this spot based on the drop in weight off a square effort. #6 PREACHER MARSEE always seems to find some trouble, and while we'd be remiss in excluding, we like to leave these overbet "trouble finders" beneath.  OFF TURF: 7-10-14(AE)-13(AE)-15(AE)  NOTE: AS OF 3:07, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #2 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 


Gulfstream      ( Spring ):      25-161     ( $341.10 )   Beatable  Favorites   1-10  ( 0% )       Favorites Win %     53-161   ( 32.9% )(As of Thursday morning)

Gulfstream      ( Winter ):        8-76       ( $141.00 )   Beatable Favorites    0-3    ( 0% )       Favorites Win %     23-76     ( 39.1% ) 


Aqueduct Winter  ( Final ):     65-427    ( $615.10 )  Beatable  Favorites  8-18  ( 44.4% )    Favorites Win %:   174-427 ( 40.8% ) 

Graded Stakes ( Current ):       2-8        ( $25.60 )    Beatable Favorites    N/A   (  N/A )      Favorites Win %:     2-8       ( 25.0% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 64-411  ( $581.30 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-56 ( 32.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 139-411 (33.8%)  +/-: -29.2% against a 16.8% takeout  


Poly Tracks2013-16  (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-20 (All Final):2511-12426 ($21,132.80)  Beatable Favorites : 343-1222( 28.1% )Favorite's Win %: 4751-12529 ( 37.9% ) +/-: -15.3%  against a 16.8% takeout


Cumulative Stats      (All Final): 2596-12994 ($21,953.00)  Beatable Favorites : 358-1290( 27.8% )Favorite's Win %: 4913-13116 ( 37.5% ) +/-: -15.4%  against a 16.6% takeout


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