SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Gulfstream Selections & Analysis - 5/1


Just one on top winner yesterday, but the "unders" saved our bacon, as we got home two Rolling Daily Doubles of $116 & $117, two exacta boxes of $122 & $68, two Quinella boxes of $50 & $24, and a Rolling Pick 3 of $669.  

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O.

Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 11 - #2 Beasaichi


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Gulfstream - 5/1


Race  1




#7 EXTREMELYEXCLUSIVE bested more than half the field at 81-1 first time out, and as a matter of fact, loss by less than three lengths that day. Gelding is halved in price this afternoon, and sire was two for two going long on a firm lawn. #6 ABAZILLION hasn't been seen since stepping forward in a big way when transitioning to the sod last June, and has been gelded since while dropping in class today. #5 PUNCHLINE was an honest third in the most recent and gets an upgrade jockey department now.  OFF TURF: 7-3-4-10-1  NOTE: AS OF 12:11, DUE TO THIS RACE BEING RUN ON A FAST TRACK, WE HAVE AMENDED OUR SELECTIONS TO 2-4-7.


Race  2

1.Hall Rich Legacy

2.Midnight Traveler

3.Congrats Again

#6 HALL RICH LEGACY broke from a disadvantageous post when beginning his working life right here a fortnight ago, and while he showed very little that day, takes teh biggest plunge in the business this afternoon while having eye cups affixed. This one is a half to Monster Mash ( 12 for 37 in dirt sprints, banking 311K ) as well as One River Place ( 4-15, 130K doing the same thing ). We like to lean towards experienced runners in these kinda deals whenever possible. #3 MIDNIGHT TRAVELER was dropped by a lady who was 1 of 7 @ this sorta deal, and daddy was an excellent sprinter; 400 Tommy for the trip is strong. #8 CONGRATS again has a nice gate breeze for today's overture and draws well.  NOTE: AS OF 12:21, DUE TO A KEY LATE SCRATCH, WE HAVE AMENDED OUR SELECTIONS TO 9-8-3.


Race  3



3.Hero Up

#7 ITSMYLUCKYKNIGHT was a'stumblin and a'bumblin in the 4/12 comebacker, but rates a puncher's chance if able to get back to the penultimate try. Encouraging to see Jaramillo come back. #2 INTEREST was all out to win this race by a honkah on April 3rd, so why can't she do it again? With the exception of one stinker, #3 HERO UP has improved with each and every start, culminating with a showing when going against winners for the first time ( never easy to do ), and goes from an apprentice to a journeyman now.  OFF TURF: 3-4-8-2-7  NOTE: AS OF 12:27, DUE TO THIS RACE BEING RUN ON A FAST TRACK, WE HAVE AMENDED OUR SELECTIONS TO 8-7-6.


Race  4 

1.Pump Room 


3.See the Pyramids

We're really digging the prospects of #8 PUMP ROOM in this spot. While it's true that at first glance the most recent doesn't do much to get the pulse racing, her breeding for a turf route is extremely poor, and she's much better suited for this kind of deal. Had an awful onset to the initial dirt try, but overcame that to get 10% of the purse beneath today's pilot, and as we always give a runner two starts under a particular set of circumstances, we wouldn't be surprised for the upward trajectory to continue here -- in a big way. Play of the day. #1 BRAND has been beset by back to back layoff lines, but is now available for purchase and gets in light. #2 SEE THE PYRAMIDS has a decent collection of speed figures and is another one sliding down the ladder.  NOTE: AS OF 12:29, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #5 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.


Race  5



3.Dream of God

#10 BOLT switches back to the brown stuff in this spot, and the only time that was attempted, a lifetime best figaro was the end result. Barn having a heckuva meet thus far, and Fanny got home a bomber 12 days ago. Could be dangerous if able to coast on an easy lead. #1 DECKOLOGY was eased on this strip when last facing the starter, so likely had to work out for the state vet to ensure all is okay for today's start at the lowest level on the grounds. Connections stand to take a beating even with a win & a claim, so it would behoove you to take a peek during the warmup. #2 DREAM OF GOD's lone tally came off a break in the action, and that's reason enough to include against this allotment.  NOTE: AS OF 12:37, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #12 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.


Race  6 

1.Starship Nugget


3.Mo of the West

#5 STARSHIP NUGGET came along quite well to complete the triple at 20-1 at first asking, and it's worth knowing that the paternal granddam was a sensational 18:8-4-1 when going two turns on firm turf. In a field devoid of much early speed, don't be surprised to see this one closer to the pace in this spot. #2 AIZU had the front wraps removed when returning off a bit of a freshening, and finished up 2nd that day, in a heat nearly identical to today. #1 MO OF THE WEST had a touch of trouble when the gates opened in the bow, but still was able to split the field that day, and now sheds 32 ounces while sliding in five slots. Three ( of 5 ) returnees from that affair came back to with their subsequent starts, and gal poses a threat if able to find a seam late in the game.  OFF TURF: 5-1-6-3-2  NOTE: AS OF 12:41, DUE TO THIS RACE BEING RUN OVER A FAST TRACK, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS WILL BE 5-4-1.


Race  7

1.Still Schemin


3.Shanghai Moon

#5 STILL SCHEMIN has gotten better and better and better with each and every trip to the track, and it finally all paid off with diploma earning effort against maiden platers 23 days in the rear. What intrigues us is the same thing that piqued our interest w/ our key play early on, is that this one is substantially better bred for today's surface/dist. than that of the most recent. Would not be shocked to see this one win right back, especially as DRF Formulator has this barn at a perfect 4 for 4 with dirt runners in the 1-43 day bracket @ 7-1 or less ( $10, $11, $13 & $14 ); as this was written before the odds come out, that stat is 4 for 6 with those at 17-1 or undah. #4 NEVERSTOPDREAMING can be forgiven the turf try as well as the first off the L/O attempt ( when getting smacked around ), and with that being said, the first two tries over this oval were goodies, weren't they? Shotcaller has a 4 for 11 ledger with 2nd off the snag dirt stock off absences of four weeks or less. #7 SHANGHAI MOON got her Polaroid taken one of the two times she went from T to D, with the victory occurring in Hallandale Beach; lone try at this price resulted in a crisp placing. 


Race  8 


2.High Noon Rider


#2 FLOWMOTION is 5 for 13 on this course ( 1-17 otherwise ), and the hat trick's well within reach. #4 HIGH NOON RIDER has won two of four, five of seven, and digs the local palm trees. Leaving beneath as Saffie has been less than "miraculous" of late. #10 JAKARTA has been first or second at every point of call in her last six efforts, and sheds five pounds off a tally, which is something we love to see. Irad won w/ 4 of his 9 when returning on Sunday, and is on a 6 for 12 run as well.  OFF TURF: 1-3-4-8(MTO)-6  NOTE: AS OF 12:47, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #1 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.


Race  9 

1.Quality Special

2.Doctor D J 

3.Snap Hook

#5 QUALITY SPECIAL is a bit of an in and outer, but found his way into the winner's circle the only time he went from green to brown, and returns to the level claimed from two back. This one's a "need the lead" type, so you can be darn sure of the bug's intentions once they spring the latches. #8 DOCTOR D J came along in good fashion in the lone grass to dirt transition ( @ 32-1 ), and has never been entered this cheaply. #1 SNAP HOOK is 3:1-1-1 when making this surface switch, with the placing happening at GP versus tougher, the showing coming under the guidance of today's jockey, and the win ( like the 3rd place finish ) being from the pine. 


Race  10

1.Prospective Diva

2.Song River

3.Heir Ball

#4 PROSPECTIVE DIVA owns a one for two mark when making the dirt to turf switch, and has been in slightly better form this year than last. Mild edge in a humdrum affair. #10 SONG RIVER had a daylight lead vs. this type ( albeit straight three year olds ) on March the 11th, but got lassoed late in the game while still finishing a well clear runner up. Know her early but have the Pepto handy late. #9 HEIR BALL has hit the board in her quartet of outings since being claimed ( and laid up ) by Rivelli, and makes all kinds of sense in this spot.  OFF TURF: 1-2-4-11-9  NOTE: AS OF 12:50, DUE TO THE RACE BEING RUN OVER A FAST TRACK, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS WILL BE 5-1-8.


Race  11


2.Miss My Macho


#6 GEA has steadily shown improvement in all of her ten outings to date, and just may do such again with a tidier sojourn. #4 MISS MY MACHO was a lively runner up at 12-1 in the most recent try, ( at 12-1 ) and Ritvo is a tight 3-7 with mid level turf dashers who crashed the fiesta less than 42 days ago ( $7, $10 & $11 ). Keeping out of the top spot as Juarez is oh-fer his last 68 as of this writing. #3 KAYSERI is a mite light from a numbers aspect, but just got the sheepskin, and sometimes when that light bulb comes on, it can stay on for a while.  OFF TURF: 1-10-2-9-6  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #2 BEASAICHI doesn't make our first cut, so why would we accept favoritism?

Gulfstream      ( Spring ):      26-172     ( $351.10 )   Beatable  Favorites   1-10  ( 0% )       Favorites Win %     56-172   ( 32.7% )(As of Friday morning) 

Gulfstream      ( Winter ):        8-76       ( $141.00 )   Beatable Favorites    0-3    ( 0% )       Favorites Win %     23-76     ( 39.1% ) 

Aqueduct Winter  ( Final ):     65-427    ( $615.10 )  Beatable  Favorites  8-18  ( 44.4% )    Favorites Win %:   174-427 ( 40.8% ) 

Graded Stakes ( Current ):       2-8        ( $25.60 )    Beatable Favorites    N/A   (  N/A )      Favorites Win %:     2-8       ( 25.0% )

All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 64-411  ( $581.30 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-56 ( 32.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 139-411 (33.8%)  +/-: -29.2% against a 16.8% takeout  

Poly Tracks2013-16  (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-20 (All Final):2511-12426 ($21,132.80)  Beatable Favorites : 343-1222( 28.1% )Favorite's Win %: 4751-12529 ( 37.9% ) +/-: -15.3%  against a 16.8% takeout

Cumulative Stats      (All Final): 2596-12994 ($21,953.00)  Beatable Favorites : 358-1290( 27.8% )Favorite's Win %: 4913-13116 ( 37.5% ) +/-: -15.4%  against a 16.6% takeout