SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Gulfstream Selections & Analysis - 5/2
  
  

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Only one on teh day yesterday, but it was an amended biggie ( $46 ) to go along with a $194 Rolling Double & a successful "Beatable Favorite" as well. 

Just a reminder, for today's Arkansas Derby covereage ( both divisions ) as well as that of the Paklawn Handicap, merely go back one page. 


I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O.


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


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Gulfstream - 5/2

 

Race  1

1.Irked

2.Turn of Events 

3.East Lex

#12 IRKED has only beaten one home in two starts to date, but colt was sent to the shelf for ten months after debuting, so apparently something went amiss that day or shortly thereafter, and was likely not fully cranked for the comebacker. Being a War Front over an Arch mare, one would think that today's stretchout would be in this one's wheelhouse, and Mott is a saucy 12:4-1-3-1 w/ locally based 2nd off the L/O turf stayers at this level ( 39-1 or undah ). The mutuels for that survey were $14, $8 & $6 x 2, and although cold for the meet, Meneses does in fact bring in a longshot from time to time. #5 TURN OF EVENTS has the best collection of speed figures in the race, and slides in seven slots, sheds 32 ounces, and is second time eye cups. #7 EAST LEX improved in a big way when transitioning to the sod for the 2nd start, and the pedigree tells us it was likely no aberration.  OFF TURF: 9-1(MTO)-2-3-8

 

Race  2

1.Gran Causeway

2.Luckytobeinamerica

3.Fives Wild

#8 GRAN CAUSEWAY has improved over his last triad, and appears to lay over this allotment in the recent ( and extremely troubled ) placing. #7 LUCKYTOBEINAMERICA ( damn skippy ) is likely the mainger danger to the above, as he finished only 1 3/4 lengths behind that one 20 days ago, and gets a three slot swing in the post position dept. this afternoon. #4 FIVES WILD has bested merely five equines in his last six pack, but Irad sees fit to ride, and they fared well vs. tougher three starts back. 

 

Race  3

1.Cornbread Kingdom

2.Or'effece

3.Rag Tag

#6 CORNBREAD KINGDOM had no palpable excuse for the disappointing effort on April 11th, but 415 Tommy for today's distance tells us to give this one a chance to make amends goin' 2X for the first time. The interestingly monikered OR'EFFECE ( #4 ) was put in quite the jackpot late in the game last time out, but ended up a clear second, and is reunited with Looey in this spot. We're not quite sure how they came up with that 94 Beyer, but even a number 10% less than that makes this one powerful today. #3 RAG TAG as good as any for the show dough. 

 

Race  4 

1.Our Little Devil 

2.Espiritu de Luna

3.Little Miss Macho

#6 OUR LITTLE DEVIL has given up the ghost in each & every start, but totes the lightest impost of her career, and could be a danger if able to catch a flyer. Slim margin in a race where we were unable to eliminate anyone with our first draft. #8 ESPIRITU DE LUNA has been in the back half of the field over her last quartet, but is available for purchase for the first time in this spot, and barn enlists one of their "go to" riders. #2 LITTLE MISS MACHO showed little in the bow, but takes the biggest drop in the game for today's comebacker, and $170,000 auction purchase deserves a looksie during the warmup. 

 

Race  5

1.Dr Harlan

2.Valdocco 

3.Phish Fan

#1 DR HARLAN has partaken in the triple in more than half of his calls to the post, but what really pops off the page is the 5 for 11 mark at this dx., in comparison to being 1 fer 20 otherwise. Eight year old is 5:1-2-2 when beginning from the pine, and posted an adjusted 76.5 the only time he carried < 120 pounds ( 115 ). Lone comebacker from the last came back to win, upping his adj. BSF 2.6 points in the process ( against tougher ). The more we type...  #5 VALDOCCO has closed out the exacta in two of three "3rd off the layoff" forays, an the 16:2-10-1 Hallandale ledger has us leaving this one beneath. #8 PHISH FAN drops in class off a flopola and digs the trip. 

 

Race  6 

1.Glory Dia

2.Smitten for Smitty

3.One Hot Drama

We don't really have a good read on this race so be sure to tread lightly. #4 GLORY DIA has been working decently for today's return off the brief freshening, and has done decent work over this oval. Meeeeeeeeekest of selections. #1 SMITTEN FOR SMITTY showed substantial improvement when procuring the sheepskin right here two fortnights ago, and what we like is that it wasn't because of any magic panacea -- no class drop, no equipment or medication change, no new surface -- the light bulb simply came on; a threat right back. #7 ONE HOT DRAMA is smartly hiked up after the recent tally and digs the local pine trees here. 

 

Race  7

1.Vita Dolce

2.Notsosubtle

3.Lookin at Roses 

#11 VITA DOLCE may appear to be a bit light from a #'s perspective, but keep in mind that the last duet were on the sand, and this one has conducted himself precipitously better when going over the blades. That being said, if you were to look back to his best turf route, what you come up with is an adjusted 76.6 ( against tougher ) without blinkers & front wraps, which are currently part of the package. Interesting bomber foir the start of the Pick 6. #12 NOTSOSUBTLE was in the rear with the gear in the first start off a 19 month hibernation, but may have needed that and is an obvious threat if able to get back to the other turf outings. #6 LOOKIN AT ROSES is one for two with Irad, and the loss was a "better than it appeared" effort when having blinkers added -- just like today.  OFF TURF: 3-10-12-4-2  NOTE: AS OF 7:18 P.M. FRIDAY, THE #9 WILL BE 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  8 

1.Just for One Day

2.Beau Luminarie

3.Overdeliver

#1 JUST FOR ONE DAY got up in time to win the "first off the layoff/first time turf" deal back on 3/22, and the only one to race again from that heat got his photograph taken, moving up in the #'s department by six points in the process. Back on the sand now, and FWIW, the lone time on such yielded an adjusted figaro of 88.1, and as this lightly raced two year old is showing a healthy 378 for the trip, we feel a solid effort is on tap. After a sensational maiden breaker, #9 BEAU LUMINARIE was grisly in his first try vs. winners, but deserves a shot to prove that was an aberration in today's 3rd off the break try. #2 OVERDELIVER showed a different change of tactics when coming from out of the clouds in the most recent, but we're not sure if that was part of the plan, as a rider change is now in play. 4:3-1-0 snappy local mark is duly noted. 

 

Race  9 

1.Ginger Kitty ( AE )

2.Onyx

3.Micheline

#13 GINGER KITTY (AE) is on the outside looking in, but was heading in the right direction before being laid up, and 7% barn with limited starters ( 96 ) over the last five years is 4:2-0-0-2 when being handed over a runner ( $20 & $4 ). Expect Torres to utilize this one's zippiness to cross over from the outside slot. #5 ONYX was anything but a gem in the return engagement ( getting "Slammed" by ten others ), but is another with an "upwards" arrow alongside all the prior starts, which included three straight wins on this course. #4 MICHELINE has gone 60-62-72 in her troika of outings on firm going, so who knows exactly where her ceiling is in that regards.  OFF TURF: 1-15(MTO)-14(MTO)-12-6  NOTE: AS OF 1:08, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #11 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  10

1.Garter and Tie

2.With Verve

3.Royal Squeeze

#4 GARTER AND TIE didn't show much in the pre & post layoff spins, but we like to be forgiving of those, as perhaps something went awry in the former while not being cranked up for the latter. Having said that, colt was doing some fine work in 2019, and his lone "2nd off the shelf" jammie was a solid showing directly behind a next out winner. Reunited with Emisael now, and they've amassed a 4:1-1-1 mark in tandem. #1 WITH VERVE had gone back to back before the 63 day sabbatical, and we'd be remiss in excluding, despite the paucity of big Beyers. #7 ROYAL SQUEEZE sure is an old warhorse, ain't he? Eight year old makes his 43rd start today ( 565G in the bank ) and is a head shy of a poyfect 3 fer 3 mark in 2nd off the break attempts at GP.; Horse for the course deserves your respect.  NOTE: AS OF 5:10 P.M. THURSDAY, WE ARE FLIP FLOPPING OUR TOP TWO SELECTIONS.  NOTE: AS OF 1:11, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #8 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  11

1.Don Juan Kitten

2.Buy Me Candy

3.Gufo

#9 DON JUAN KITTEN outran his odds in hitting the board both times last year, and after a bevy of humdrum workouts leading up to today's return, posted a crisp 48 & 2 up at Palm Meadows last week. Trainer/Jockey combo have fared well together, and we like this one's ability to send or rate just a bit. #5 BUY ME CANDY must've dug the Bayou bog about two months ago, as he procured the diploma at FG over a course labeled "good". Well traveled runner enters his 3rd different starting gate in as many forays, ( as well as getting his 3rd different pilot ), and we'll use this one at s solid offering. #4 GUFO went from zero to hero to get the better of optional foes on March 27th, and picks up Ortiz again, who steered him to his first victory last year.  OFF TURF: 7-5-8-13(MTO)-3  NOTE: AS OF 1:13, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #12 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  12

1.Drinks on Me

2.Beach Dreaming

3.Paint the Corners

#11 DRINKS ON ME is halved in price for today's nitecap, ( down to a lifetime low ) and has a nice 6:2-2-0-1 record ( 33% ) when starting from the outermost three slots, compared to being 5-24 ( 21% ) in other slots; ( some horses prefer being in the clear ). #6 PAINT THE CORNERS is a steady if unspectacular sort who has done well @ Gulf and gets some post relief. #9 BEACH DREAMING is returned to the level claimed seven weeks back ( an honest 2nd place finish ), and revels the ambiance here ( 16:4-3-4 ) in comparison to other ovals ( 6:1-1-1 ).  OFF TURF: 3-4-6-1(MTO)-8  NOTE: AS OF 5:13 P.M. FRIDAY, WE ARE FLIP FLOPPING OUR TOP TWO SELECTIONS.


Gulfstream      ( Spring ):      27-183     ( $397.30 )   Beatable  Favorites   1-11  ( 9.1% )    Favorites Win %     59-183   ( 32.2% )(As of Sat. morning)

Gulfstream      ( Winter ):        8-76       ( $141.00 )   Beatable Favorites    0-3    ( 0% )       Favorites Win %     23-76     ( 39.1% ) 


Aqueduct Winter  ( Final ):     65-427    ( $615.10 )  Beatable  Favorites  8-18  ( 44.4% )    Favorites Win %:   174-427 ( 40.8% ) 

Graded Stakes ( Current ):       2-8        ( $25.60 )    Beatable Favorites    N/A   (  N/A )      Favorites Win %:     2-8       ( 25.0% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 64-411  ( $581.30 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-56 ( 32.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 139-411 (33.8%)  +/-: -29.2% against a 16.8% takeout  


Poly Tracks2013-16  (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-20 (All Final):2511-12426 ($21,132.80)  Beatable Favorites : 343-1222( 28.1% )Favorite's Win %: 4751-12529 ( 37.9% ) +/-: -15.3%  against a 16.8% takeout


Cumulative Stats      (All Final): 2596-12994 ($21,953.00)  Beatable Favorites : 358-1290( 27.8% )Favorite's Win %: 4913-13116 ( 37.5% ) +/-: -15.4%  against a 16.6% takeout


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