SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Gulfstream Selections & Analysis - 5/3
  
  

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Blanked on the top end yesterday, but we showed a nice triple box in the nitecap as well as a rolling double earlier on.

Additionally, our 62-1 & 9-1 top choices in the split divisions of the Arkansas Derby ran a GAME 3rd & 2nd respectively. 


I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O.


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 3 - #7 Budget Buster


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Gulfstream - 5/3

 

Race  1

1.Uncut

2.Upsy Daisy Do

3.Lookn Fine as Wine

#10 UNCUT has had some excuses over the last quartet ( "Vied with winner", "Rank", "Off Slow" ) but with horses of this caliber, we always find a reason to delve deeply, and bay filly put forward a solid effort right here back in the fall. Gal needs a lot to go her way, but the outsidish draw should help a bit. #1 UPSY DAISY DO has completed the exacta in half of her local forays, and totes the lightest impost of her career today while being reunited with blinkers. #5 LOOKN FINE AS WINE finds herself at her lowest level to date and goes 2X to 1X for the first time. 

 

Race  2

1.Candy Crushem 

2.Millionaire Runner

3.Animal Trick 

#3 CANDY CRUSHEM down the lane. #4 MILLIONAIRE RUNNER was due for a clunker, and although this chap closed out the triple last time out, the number came back on the low side. Last win came beneath Bobblehead, and could pick up some pieces late with some pace to cut into. #6 ANIMAL TRICK is 1 for 3 when going from two turns to one, and has gotten the job done in three out of his last five starts when entered for 8K or less. 

 

Race  3

1.Aransas

2.Fantastry ( Brz )

3.The Mormon Mauler

#8 ARANSAS hasn't been in action in a couple of Turkey Days, but homebred is available for purchase for the first time, and Matz knows a thing or two about having 'em prepped for the comebackers. Over the last five years, DRF Formulator has this 13% shotcaller 4 for 17 with turf stayers returning off sabbaticals of 250+ days, and the mutuels for that study were $5, $7, $17 & $20; Lasix now part of the package. #6 FANTASTRY (BRZ) closed out the super at 11-1 when trying the gramma for the first time last year and takes the biggest drop in the game today. #2 THE MORMON MAULER can crash the fiesta if fully cranked up.  OFF TURF: 1-4-5-8-6  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #7 BUDGET BUSTER doesn't make our first cut, so why would we accept favoritism?

 

Race  4 

1.Sir Khan

2.Odds It's Real

3.Thrill Ride

#2 SIR KAHN owns a last race Beyer speed figure that supersedes anything that anyone in the race has posted -- or we feel is able to post right now. Winner from the most recent got his photo taken next out, and although the # dropped about 8.4%, should that occur here, a win would still be well within reach. #9 ODDS IT'S REAL was a well beaten but nicely clear runner up when beginning his working life on March 13th, but apparently that wasn't good enough for Holly Crest Farm, who greenlighted this one for the unkindest cut of all shortly thereafter. Four year old draws better ad looms a solid "unders" candidate. #8 THRILL RIDE has two bullets in the holster for today's bow and totes along a fat 406 Tommy for the distance. 

 

Race  5

1.Shanghai Levi

2.Felon

3.Venerate

#9 SHANGHAI LEVI overcame a touch of trouble in the most recent to close out the superfecta in this race @ 11-1, and now sheds a whopping eight pounds with a decent enough bug assigned. Mild choice in an uninspiring heat. #4 FELON is a steady if unspectacular sort who has finished 5th or better in all starts but the debut, and has an ability to rate or send a bit. #2 VENERATE is the class of this field and can rebound in today's 2nd off the layoff try.  OFF TURF: 4-7-10-12-13(MTO)

 

Race  6 

1.Go Gator Girl Go

2.Tofffen

3.Tournesol

#1 GO GATOR GIRL GO secured her lone tally in her only "second off the break" attempt, and that start ( along with one other placing ) were her only when beginning from the innermost three slots. Needs to sit a perfect trip. #3 TOFFEN returned off a 4 1/2 month break to secure the sheepskin right here at Hallandale Beach versus maiden platers, and while a regression is always possible, we'll leave in the mix in case the light bulb stays on. Draw a crayola through the last of #2 TOURNESOL, as she clipped heels, effectively losing all hope. Obvious factor if able to get back to the penultimate try.  OFF TURF: 1-3-5-7-8

 

Race  7

1.Estilo Talentoso

2.Token

3.Sport'n Forty

#3 ESTILO TALENTOSO has been a jealous bridesmaid in all four starts to begin her career, but sheds three pounds, slides in two slots, and has blinkers affixed for the first time today. No worse than 3rd for all you show punters. #2 TOKEN is showing steady improvement over each start and goes from two tuns to one here. #8 SPORT'N FORTY didn't show much in the lone dirt spin, but that was just her overture, and gal has shown some nice improvement since; Breeding says that this one should handle the brown stuff just as well as the gramma.  

 

Race  8 

1.Golden Tap

2.For Kicks

3.Magic River

#8 GOLDEN TAP is nearly halved in price this afternoon, and that's a good thing, as she's only beaten home the chase ambulance over her last duet. May get overlooked a bit after the awkward start to the most recent, and keep in mind that this one has fared decently over the course. #3 FOR KICKS was an even 4th in a nearly identical spot 23 days back, but make perk up with an eight pound reduction in the weight department. #9 MAGIC RIVER is a bit of an in and outer, but will toss in for the show dough.  OFF TURF: 3-6-9-7-10

 

Race  9 

1.Vast

2.Naked Avenger

3.Spanish Point

#1 VAST was doing some nice work vs. tougher last year, but as often happens with the babies, was sent to the sidelines for one reason or another ( bucked shins, needed to fill out, etc. ). Gal has some decent rail experience, and it's nice to see Lasix still out of the equation. #4 NAKED AVENGER showed zilch in the comebacker, but had worked well prior to that, and deserves a chance to make things right. #3 SPANISH POINT got the job done in her only start off a hiatus, and pre-layoff jock returns; logical addition.  NOTE: AS OF 6:33 P.M. FRIDAY, WE ARE FLIP FLOPPING OUR TOP TWO SELECTIONS.

 

Race  10

1.Souper Courage

2.Devoted Kitten

3.Machiavelli

#2 SOUPER COURAGE was a gutsy runner up in this race three weeks back and makes all kinds of sense once again. #3 DEVOTED KITTEN finished just behind the above in their most recent engagement, but gets a six slot swing in the post position from that one now, and this one doesn't necessarily need the lead to do his best. #4 MACHIAVELLI found his way into the winner's circle the only time he was in a "2nd off the L/O" scenario, and it came right here as well.  OFF TURF: 3-7-4-8-10

 

Race  11

1.Fujairah

2.Crumb Bun

3.Short Summer Dress

#6 FUJAIRAH goes from turf to dirt in this spot ( which ended up in a solid placing when that was done before ) and from 2 turns to 1 turn ( which ended up with a nice showing when that was done before ). Eighth different helmsman in as many calls to the post is having himself a fine year, and you may get a little value with this one. #8 CRUMB BUN had no palpable for the poor effort about a month ago, but had gone 5:2-1-1-1 just prior to that, and drops 8 pounds with an apprentice replacing the injured Panici. #3 SHORT SUMMER DRESS hasn't faced the starter in quite some time, but aside from some pedestrian morning moves, is showing a bullet for the return.  NOTE: AS OF 6:44 P.M. FRIDAY, THE #3 WILL BE OUR TOP SELECTION.

 

Race  12

1.American Ninja

2.Til the End

3.Donji

#1 AMERICAN NINJA owns a 3-12 ledger right here  ( 1-12 over other ovals ) and owns a two fer four mark when beginning from the innermost two post positions. Worth noting that Zayas was aboard for last score. #2 TIL THE END has a nice collection of speed figures, but Bravo a bit chilly of late, so we'll slide underneath. #6 DONJI went coast to coast like butter and toast vs. tougher on March 18th, so obviously deserves your respect in the weeks' finale.  OFF TURF: 10-6-4-2-8



Gulfstream      ( Spring ):      27-195     ( $397.30 )   Beatable  Favorites   1-11  ( 9.1% )    Favorites Win %     62-195   ( 31.8% )(As of Sunday morning)

Gulfstream      ( Winter ):        8-76       ( $141.00 )   Beatable Favorites    0-3    ( 0% )       Favorites Win %     23-76     ( 39.1% ) 


Aqueduct Winter  ( Final ):     65-427    ( $615.10 )  Beatable  Favorites  8-18  ( 44.4% )    Favorites Win %:   174-427 ( 40.8% ) 

Graded Stakes ( Current ):       2-8        ( $25.60 )    Beatable Favorites    N/A   (  N/A )      Favorites Win %:     2-8       ( 25.0% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 64-411  ( $581.30 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-56 ( 32.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 139-411 (33.8%)  +/-: -29.2% against a 16.8% takeout  


Poly Tracks2013-16  (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-20 (All Final):2511-12426 ($21,132.80)  Beatable Favorites : 343-1222( 28.1% )Favorite's Win %: 4751-12529 ( 37.9% ) +/-: -15.3%  against a 16.8% takeout


Cumulative Stats      (All Final): 2596-12994 ($21,953.00)  Beatable Favorites : 358-1290( 27.8% )Favorite's Win %: 4913-13116 ( 37.5% ) +/-: -15.4%  against a 16.6% takeout


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