SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Gulfstream Selections & Analysis - 5/7
  
  

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Couple of profitable winners here on Sunday ( maintaining our flat bet profit ), and another successful "Beatable Favorite" as well ( we've killed it in that department down here ).


I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O.


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 1 - #2 No No Nina  Race 5 - #8 Bourbon Currency  ( Note: as of 12:43, this is NOT a Beatable Favorite )


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Gulfstream - 5/7

 

Race  1

1.Wonder Charm

2.Myfirstexwife

3.Jimmys Lass

#10 WONDER CHARM had an awful onset to her working life in an off the turf event two and a half weeks back, so you can feel free to draw a sharpie through that deal. Sire was 6:1-1-1-1 dashing on firm sod, and the maternal grandsire finished third in his only attempt in doing the same. But quite often in these deals it's not so much the turf pedigree -- but the sprinter's bloodlines that come through, and this one has a near perfect 476 ( of 480 ) Tomlinson at the trip. Keep in mind that this one had a crisp gate move just prior to the debut, so why not give her another chance at a big number? #6 MYFIRSTEXWIFE should be no worse than 2nd here for all you place punters and must be left in all your rolling action. #3 JIMMYS LASS cuts back and drops down a peg.  OFF TURF: 10-13(AE)-14(AE)-12-2  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #2 NO NO NINA doesn't make our first cut, so why would we take 8/5 ?

 

Race  2

1.Sister Aurora

2.Dayoutoftheoffice ( AE )

3.Dannyhill ( AE )

#6 SISTER AURORA was a bit tardy to the party in the local overture three weeks ago, effectively losing all chance at this abbreviated distance, and although this is the first foal out of an unraced dam, we see City Zip & Patriot Act in the family tree, so will permit another chance. #10 DAYOUTOFTHEOFFICE (AE) and #9 DANNYHILL (AE) both need a little luck to make it over to the races this afternoon, but should that come to bear, will be toting along some decent dashing pedigree, and would be drawing well.  NOTE: AS OF 12:34, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #1 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  3

1.Cherorama

2.Varsovia

3.Chic and Sexy

#7 CHERORAMA closed out the superfecta at 20-1 in the first start off a four month break, and goes from an apprentice to a journeyman for today's second off the layoff try while having blinkers added. #2 VARSOVIA is showing a baby "Z" pattern in the most recent ( lost 4 1/2 lengths from the quarter to the half before regaining 1 3/4 from that point to the line ) and should be more forwardly placed w/ Emisael Jaramillo taking over. #3 CHIC AND SEXY outran her odds in a big way when splitting the triple at 23-1 in this race on April 16th, and while we know a bounce is always possible off a lifetime best numero, we'd be remiss in excluding. 

 

Race  4 

1.Gracie's Dream ( AE )

2.Honolua Bay

3.Goodbitofbizness

#16 GRACIE'S DREAM ( AE ) needs numerous defections from the body of the race to be entered into the starting apparatus, but has done ( for this allotment at least ) okay from time to time, and drops a whopping nine pounds today. Slim margin. #1 HONOLUA BAY was a lively 3rd on April the 3rd, and slides in from the eight hole to the pine here. #3 GOODBITOFBIZNESS completed the trifecta at big balloons on the first of December, but apparently that career best Beyer, and/or the workout two weeks later took some of the starch out of the collar, as the four year old hasn't been heard from since. Obvious factor if completely ready.  OFF TURF: 4-7-8-5-2  NOTE: AS OF 12:36, DUE TO TWO LATE SCATCHES THE #'S 6 & 10 WILL BE OUR 2ND & 3RD CHOICES RESPECTIVELY.

 

Race  5

1.Lucky Mike

2.Digital Footprint

3.Indian Counselor

#5 LUCKY MIKE came along honestly enough to finish 4th in a near identical spot on this course last out, and with a little bit of post relief today, we're hoping Miguel can find a space to tuck in early on. Meeeek selection in a race where we only eliminated two with our first draft. #2 DIGITAL FOOTPRINT got his photograph taken the only time he came in off a L/O, and has fared well @ this trip to boot ( 5:1-1-2 ). #1 INDIAN COUNSELOR was a 3rd place finisher in his lone other start when available for purchase. T-Gaff takes over in this spot, and he's done well for us with rail skimming turf stayers ( Zulu Alpha ).  OFF TURF: 1-8-2-3-5  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #8 BOURBON CURRENCY  NOTE: AS OF 12:39, DUE TO TWO LATE SCRATCHES, THE #'S 7 & 8 WILL BE OUR 2ND & 3RD CHOICES RESPECTIVELY.

 

Race  6 

1.Ominous

2.Chamberlain

3.Celtic Brotherhood

#8 OMINOUS showed a little bit of early hoof when beginning from a disadvantageous slot first time out, and gets the antithesis of draws today, being assigned the eight hole. This late bloomer ( 5 years old ) now has a hood added, and barn got the job done the only other time they tried such with a dirt runner at this level ( < 75 days ), with said victor paying six clams. #6 CHAMBERLAIN ( uncoupled barnmate with the above ) has been beset by back to back layoff lines, but owns some speed and could be dangerous if fully cranked up AND able to catch a flyer out of the gate. #1 CELTIC BROTHERHOOD nearly went all tyeh way right outta the box, but got nabbed in the last 70 yards in finishing 2nd. That result showed he can handle being loaded first, which is of major relevance with lightly raced runners.  NOTE: AS OF 12:42, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #5 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  7

1.Some Say So

2.Faith N Hope

3.Midnight Miracle 

#7 SOME SAY SO tried to run sans jockey a dozen days back, but that's illegal, so this one is spotted right back at the same level from two starts back ( when a solid runner up ). We like when jockeys show chutzpah in climbing right back on a horse who dumped 'em when last in action, and Reyes does just that. #3 FAITH N HOPE is a nibblah by rote ( 45:3-6-11 ) and may land another slice with the reduction of lead in the saddle today. #1 MIDNIGHT MIRACLE has the quintessentially perfect "declining" record that we love to see ( 19:7-4-2 ) as it shows that she knows where the finish line is. 3 for 4 mark when breaking from the wood is to be admired, and this miss just may take to the turf in her initial try over the stuff.  OFF TURF: 1-3-4-8-9

 

Race  8 

1.Shall Return

2.Gilda F. 

3.Worth Avenue

#8 SHALL RETURN acted up a bit at the onset of the 3/13 event, showing very little thereafter. Runner ended up in a new shedrow that day, and returns back for the same price this afternoon, while losing some weight & gaining a bug. The next to last try was a crisp one behind a next out winner ( at 26-1 ), and we'll give this one the opportunity to rebound at a square offering. #1 GILDA F. was quite game in completing the exacta ( or perfecta, or exactor, for those north of the border ) 55 days back, and was decently clear of the show horse that day. Should be able to sit a decent trip. #8 WORTH AVENUE has partaken in the triple in more than half of her outings, but has been camera shy for nearly two years now, so we'll leave beneath. 

 

Race  9 

1.Champagne Horizon

2.Lido Key

3.Bean Counter

#4 CHAMPAGNE HORIZON had a couple of legit excuses for being up the track on March 12th ( ran loose post parade, first time on a "good" course ), but there was nothing wrong with those four 1-2 finishes just prior to that ( all with an upwards arrow alongside of them ), and we're expecting a good performance in this spot. #2 LIDO KEY got through the maiden ranks down in Oldsmar two months back, and sometimes when the light bulb comes on, it can stay in that position for a while. #3 BEAN COUNTER had a lively placing in her only "3rd off the L/O" spin, and we like this one's ability to send or rate just a bit.  OFF TURF: 3-1-6-4-9

 

Race  10

1.Sayonara Baby

2.Bion Magic

3.Royal Meghan

#4 SAYAONARA BABY apparently loathed the green stuff on April the 2nd, and is smartly switched back over to the sand today, on which she's had success. The fact that Zayas sticks round is encouraging, and stock goes up if front wraps come off. #2 BION MAGIC got destroyed in the comebacker, but went all the way when debuting on this strip last September, and obviously has a chance if able to replicate the Calder figaro. #3 ROYAL MEGHAN has yet to be worse than 2nd on the dirt, and that's cause enough to chunk in.

 

Race  11

1.Lucky Stripe

2.Uncle Renny

3.Seven Channels

#4 LUCKY STRIPE didn't display much when beginning her career recently, but has fired off a bullet since, and we've always had a fondness for fading sprinters stretching out on the sod for the first time. May surprise at a price. #1 UNCLE RENNY has a "For Sale" sticker attached to his rump for the 1st time and is extremely well bred for the blades. #7 SEVEN CHANNELS drops & gets juice.  OFF TURF: 5-2-6-13(AE)-15(MTO)


Gulfstream      ( Spring ):      29-207     ( $423.10 )   Beatable  Favorites   1-12  ( 8.5% )    Favorites Win %     66-207   ( 31.9% )(As of Thursday morning)

Gulfstream      ( Winter ):        8-76       ( $141.00 )   Beatable Favorites    0-3    ( 0% )       Favorites Win %     23-76     ( 39.1% ) 


Aqueduct Winter  ( Final ):     65-427    ( $615.10 )  Beatable  Favorites  8-18  ( 44.4% )    Favorites Win %:   174-427 ( 40.8% ) 

Graded Stakes ( Current ):       2-8        ( $25.60 )    Beatable Favorites    N/A   (  N/A )      Favorites Win %:     2-8       ( 25.0% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 64-411  ( $581.30 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-56 ( 32.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 139-411 (33.8%)  +/-: -29.2% against a 16.8% takeout  


Poly Tracks2013-16  (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-20 (All Final):2511-12426 ($21,132.80)  Beatable Favorites : 343-1222( 28.1% )Favorite's Win %: 4751-12529 ( 37.9% ) +/-: -15.3%  against a 16.8% takeout


Cumulative Stats      (All Final): 2596-12994 ($21,953.00)  Beatable Favorites : 358-1290( 27.8% )Favorite's Win %: 4913-13116 ( 37.5% ) +/-: -15.4%  against a 16.6% takeout


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