SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Graded Stakes Selections & Analysis - 5/25 - Santa Anita - Shoemaker Mile & Gamely - Happy Memorial Day & God Bless our Fallen Heroes
  
  

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Just a reminder that for today's complete coverage & analysis for Gulfstream Park, merely go back one page. 

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O.


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


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Graded Stakes - 5/25 - Santa Anita - Shoemaker Mile & Gamely - Happy Memorial Day - God Bless our Fallen Heroes

 

Race 9 Shoemaker Mile 

1.River Boyne ( Ire )

2.Raging Bull ( Fr )

3.Without Parole (GB)

#10 RIVER BOYNE (IRE) was given a bit of a respite after going back to back in graded events right here back in the winter, and this one positively CRUSHES it in Arcadia to the tune of an 8 for 13 mark. Furthermore, according to DRF Formulator, Mullins is a tight 3 fer 5 with turf stayers in the 68-80 day bracket @ 8-1 or less ( $8, $11 & $10 ), and there's a sub category of 1-1 in the graded ranks. You're getting 4-1 here because War of Will & the Chad runners are likely to take a bunch of action. Speaking of the latter, his two entrants -- #8 RAGING BULL (FR) & #1 WITHOUT PAROLE (GB) both have solid chances to complete the "Guinness-Wine-Tea" triple. The former is 5:2-2-1 on firm ground, and the latter is 3 of 7 at the trip.  OFF TURF: 7-9-5-4-1

 

 Race 11       Gamely

1.Etoile ( Fr )

2.Beautiful Lover

3.Simply Breathless ( GB )

#1 ETOILE (FR) hasn't been in action since the fall, and before the gal started going sour ( bleeding issues? ) she had put together a nice resume' in her native land. We mention the potential problem over there, as today's new conditioner adds the wonder drug, and he's a poyfect 5 for 5 when doing that to a new member of his barn in a graded turf event ( 180-280 days ) with a return on investment of $4.36. #7 BEAUTIFUL LOVER completed the exacta in her only start off the shelf, and aside from the debut, has never been worse than 2nd over firm ground. #6 SIMPLY BREATHLESS (GB) ( we can relate ) owns a win & a placing in her only tries off a L/O, and has the same mark right here -- with none of the races overlapping.  OFF TURF: 2-7-1-10-5

 
Gulfstream      ( Current ):       52-414  ( $681.30 )   Beatable Favorites    1-18  ( 5.6% )     Favorites Win %   147-414   ( 35.5% )(As of Monday morning)


Aqueduct Winter  ( Final ):     65-427    ( $615.10 )  Beatable  Favorites  8-18  ( 44.4% )    Favorites Win %:   174-427 ( 40.8% ) 

Graded Stakes ( Current ):       2-12        ( $25.60 )  Beatable Favorites    N/A   (  N/A )      Favorites Win %:     4-12     ( 33.3% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 64-411  ( $581.30 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-56 ( 32.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 139-411 (33.8%)  +/-: -29.2% against a 16.8% takeout  


Poly Tracks2013-16  (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-20 (All Final):2511-12450 ($21,132.80)  Beatable Favorites : 343-1222( 28.1% )Favorite's Win %: 4753-12533 ( 37.9% ) +/-: -15.3%  against a 16.8% takeout


Cumulative Stats      (All Final): 2596-12998 ($21,953.00)  Beatable Favorites : 358-1290( 27.8% )Favorite's Win %: 4915-13120 ( 37.5% ) +/-: -15.4%  against a 16.6% takeout


  CoxLA2017