SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Gulfstream Selections & Analysis - 5/8
  
  

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Took the duck yesterday. 


I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O.


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


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Gulfstream - 5/8

 

Race  1

1.All American Jewel

2.Delia's Pride

3.Subtle Joy

#2 ALL AMERICAN JEWEL has come along nicely to close out the triple in her last duet ( outrunning her odds in both ), and gets a slight upgrade in the jockey department for today's Hallandale debut. According to DRF Formulator, 18% shotcaller is a crisp 16:5-1-3-2 with locally based turf stayers who were in the money less than two months ago & are 24-1 or less ( $14, $9, $4, $43 & $10 ). There's a sub category of 1-1 w/ maiden claimers, and this one should be coming late. #6 DELIA'S PRIDE was a well beaten third in this race 15 days back, and may be a bit closer if able to save some ground. #1 SUBTLE JOY got destroyed when being hiked up the ladder in the first start off the claim, and is more properly spotted this afternoon.  OFF TURF: 4-12-7-13(AE)-14(AE)

 

Race  2

1.Give Me Two Steps ( AE )

2.Dr Parker ( AE )

3.First Navy Admiral

#10 GIVE ME TWO STEPS hasn't done much to get the pulse racing in the morning for today's overture, but colt is a half to Majestic Secret ( 3-12 in dirt dashes, 116 large ). Sire was 1 for 2 dancing to this music, paternal grandsire, sire was a poyfect 3 fer 3 doing the same ( 113 big ones ), mommy's daddy was one of two doing the same ( 32G ), and the maternal granddam was 2 for 10 in 1X dirt heats as well ( fast track ). The draw will be a nice one, and the more we type...  #9 DR PARKER (AE) is another on the outside looking in, but owns a maturity edge over the entire allotment ( January foal ), boasts a 394 Tomlinson figure for the distance, and has a bullet gate breeze as well. #6 FIRST NAVY ADMIRAL is showing a little "Z" pattern from the bow ( when losing five lengths from the quarter to the top of the lane, before gaining 3 3/4 from that point to the line ) and did such despite being smacked around at the onset and going wide late in the game.  NOTE: AS OF 12:43, DDUE TO TWO LATE SCARTCHES, #'S 3 & 1 WILL BE OUR SECOND & 3RD CHOICES RESPECTIVELY.

 

Race  3

1.Probably Grace

2.Peace Control

3.Miz Chaplin

#1 PROBABLY GRACE down the lane. #2 PEACE CONTROL was ambitiously spotted in the first start off the claim by Barboza, and is placed at a level slightly above that from two starts ago; Jaramillo doubles his normative win rate when riding for this outfit. #7 MIZ CHAPLIN was a "Little Tramp" in the most recent, as she was next to last in the second off the L/O try, but had gone back to back prior to that and is an obvious ITM factor being halved in price. 

 

Race  4 

1.Recliner ( AE )

2.Barbie's King ( AE )

3.Alperes

#13 RECLINER (AE) is rapidly approaching professional maiden territory, but completed the triple in one of two turf tries off a break ( 34-1 ) and gets some remediation in the weight dept. today. Best work has occurred when no farther than 6-7 lengths back @ the half, so Burgos will have to hustle and get this one some tactical position early on. #14 BARBIE'S KING (AE) is another who will need some luck to make it over to the races today, but has several decent lines on the resume', and unless the jockey mentioned above can have a boot in two different sets of stirrups at the same time, there will be a rider change should our exacta selections make it to the frontside. #1 ALPERES is a nibbler by rote ( 18:M-6-2 ) and was a solid runner up in one of his two "3rd off the shelf" attempts.  OFF TURF: 16(MTO)-1-5-6-3  NOTE: AS OF 12:39, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #9 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  5

1.G Q Coverup

2.Phantom Ro

3.Year of teh Kitten

#5 G Q COVERUP owns a win & a placing from three "third off the layoff" go rounds, and has done some nice work at this trip as well ( 11:2-2-2 ). The lone two turn to one turf try resulted in a snappy score, and we'll take a shot at a price. #3 PHAANTOM RO makes his 2nd start off the purchase and could perk up with an eleven lb. reduction in weights and today's surface switch. #2 YEAR OF THE KITTEN has never toted less than 118, and can be forgiven the lone dirt try, as well mas the troubled outing just prior.  OFF TURF: 1-6-3-7-4(MTO)  NOTE: AS OF 4:29 P.M. WEDNESDAY, WE ARE FLIP FLOPPING OUR TOP TWO SELECTIONS.  

 

Race  6 

1.Bardot 

2.Commanding Lady

3.Harmonic Thunder

These three and no more for all our rolling action. #6 BARDOT was a dead game and decently clear runner up right outta the box for The Toddster, who entered this $100,000 animal in for 1/4th of that price 34 days back, and now drops this daughter of Candy Ride down even farther. From a limited sampling, barn has a 2 for 5 stat with 2TS'ers at this level who hit the board 18-50 days back ( $3 & $8 ). #2 COMMANDING LADY finds herself at an all time low today for a 14% outfit who nearly doubles that rate ( 3-11 ) with 2nd off the bench mdclm. runners who missed the money right here last out ( 49-1 or < ). #7 HARMONIC THUNDER brings a bullet breeze in today, and it likely came with the addition of blinkers, which are once again a part of the package. Encouraging to see T-Gaff return.  

 

Race  7

1.Enlisting

2.Tiz Possible Dear

3.Amaluna

#8 ENLISTING has won three straight on the sand ( all of them in her only starts at GP ), and was recently claimed by Barboza, who has performed "miracles" with new acquisitions. Looms a heavy favorite vs. these. #2 TIZ POSSIBLE DEAR will be the only one we'll utilize as an exacta saver here, given her two tallies in her last quartet, as well as her affinity for this strip. #6 AMALUNA sure is an old warhorse, ain't she? Nine year old makes her 82nd load into the starting gate today and always seems to try her darnedest. Could do a lot worse for the show dough. 

 

Race  8 

1.Saint Benevolence

2.Lure Him In

3.Dynadrive

#9 SAINT BENEVOLENCE hasn't seen the scene in a tad over four months, but that race was an uuber key event, where six next out runners amassed a cumulative 6:4-0-0 ledger ( from five individual heats ). The adjusted speed figure from that day was a decent 71.6, and note that she was a nice 4th in a stakes here at 40-1 when breaking from a grisly slot. Not hopeless. #8 LURE HIM IN got his picture taken in his only start off a break, and was a lively runner up in his lone try going over the blades. #4 DYNADRIVE has been a part of the triple in all his starts but one, and six different pilot in his last sextet is a goodie in Rosario.  OFF TURF: 1-12-4-11-5

 

Race  9 

1.Maturin

2.Smash

3.Blueridge Mountain

#8 MATURIN handled himself quite nicely in the first tango w/ winners 50 days back ( something that's never easy to do ), and is confidently tripled in class this afternoon. Today's pilot has guided this one to three placings in as many pairings, and four year old has never been off the board on the Hallandale Beach sand. #4 SMASH has been befallen by L/O lines after three of her last four heats, but scored by a pole beneath Edgar in one of them, and has some speed in a race devoid of much. #5 BLUERIDGE MOUNTAIN goes turf to dirt, two turns to one, is up for sale for the first time, is 2nd off a sabbatical, and is in receipt of a better jockey. Would only need to find one of those palatable to make an impression. 

 

Race  10

1.R Happy Ending

2.Lady Grace

3.Hidden Facts

We won't be delving any deeper than this troika for all our rolling bets.  #1 R HAPPY ENDING sure does like to earn checks, doesn't she? Lightly raced mare seemingly tries her best every single time, and that includes five in the money finishes from as many start after an absence. Nice DRF Formulator stat in play here, as Ziadi---I mean, Baxter-- is 7:5-1-0 with G.P. turf dashers in the 68-72 day zip code @ 5-1 or lower ( $2.94 ROI ). #5 LADY GRACE is a neck shy of a poyfect 2 fer 2 mark after a break in the action, and has won three of four; hard to knock. #6 HIDDEN FACTS rounds out the top three.  OFF TURF: 1-4-11-5-6

 

Race  11

1.Sunnymede Dream ( AE )

2.Blazinonbayou

3.Delancey's Philly

We like to be a bit forgiving of "pre & post layoff lines", and will do just that with the #13 SUNNYMEDE DREAM (AE) in order to find some value. Digging back to the KD outing, what we came up with was a solid showing versus tougher, and @ 26-1 as well. This one goes two turns over firm ground for the first time today, and although having never tried the sod, papa did some fine work going long over the carpet fibers. Would not be surprised to see this one fare well on the dropdown. #3 BLAZINONBAYOU sheds 8 lbs. off of a mere 3/4 length defeat back in Feb., and may have appreciated the respite. #7 DELANCEY'S PHILLY encountered a heap of trouble in the initial turf foray, but still posted an okay #, & drops a bit for today's 2nd start off the hiatus.  OFF TURF: 16(MTO)-1-3-9-11  NOTE: AS OF 12:47, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #9 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Gulfstream      ( Spring ):      29-218     ( $423.10 )   Beatable  Favorites   1-13  ( 7.7% )    Favorites Win %     71-218   ( 32.6% )(As of Friday morning) 

Gulfstream      ( Winter ):        8-76       ( $141.00 )   Beatable Favorites    0-3    ( 0% )       Favorites Win %     23-76     ( 39.1% ) 


Aqueduct Winter  ( Final ):     65-427    ( $615.10 )  Beatable  Favorites  8-18  ( 44.4% )    Favorites Win %:   174-427 ( 40.8% ) 

Graded Stakes ( Current ):       2-8        ( $25.60 )    Beatable Favorites    N/A   (  N/A )      Favorites Win %:     2-8       ( 25.0% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 64-411  ( $581.30 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-56 ( 32.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 139-411 (33.8%)  +/-: -29.2% against a 16.8% takeout  


Poly Tracks2013-16  (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-20 (All Final):2511-12426 ($21,132.80)  Beatable Favorites : 343-1222( 28.1% )Favorite's Win %: 4751-12529 ( 37.9% ) +/-: -15.3%  against a 16.8% takeout


Cumulative Stats      (All Final): 2596-12994 ($21,953.00)  Beatable Favorites : 358-1290( 27.8% )Favorite's Win %: 4913-13116 ( 37.5% ) +/-: -15.4%  against a 16.6% takeout


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