SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Gulfstream Selections & Analysis - 5/9
  
  

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Just three chlaky winners on a day laden with the stuff yesterday. 


I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O.


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 5 - #10 Impression Given


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Gulfstream - 5/9

 

Race  1

1.Boogadi Steel

2.Recliner

3.Makinalegacy 

#7 BOOGADI STEEL showed zippo in the April 4th bow, but we like to give runners two chances under a particular set of circumstances in an effort to come up with the occasional longshot, and note that 11% Meneses is 2 for 5 with this trainer who normally clicks at that rate as well ( $20 & $7 ). Recognize that this is the first foal out of a dam with but one turf start to her credit, but the paternal granddam was 4:1-0-2 in turf routes over firm ground, and in a field that houses many with a lot of "L"'s on their resume''s, why not swing away with a lightly raced runner? #8 RECLINER ( cross entered yesterday, so check the changes ) is rapidly approaching professional maiden territory, but completed the triple in one of two turf tries off a break ( 34-1 ) and gets some remediation in the weight dept. today. Best work has occurred when no farther than 6-7 lengths back @ the half, so Arroyo will have to hustle and get this one some tactical position early on. #4 MAKINALEGACY broke even & improved by 18 points in the Beyer dept. in both "D to T" attempts, and the better of those two came in the lone "3rd off the L/O" try. OFF TURF: 10-9-7-13(AE)-14(AE)  NOTE: AS OF 11:44, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #6 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  2

1.Give Me Two Steps

2.Peppi ( AE )

3.Screen Star

#3 GIVE ME TWO STEPS ( in on Thursday ) hasn't done much to get the pulse racing in the morning for today's overture, but colt is a half to Majestic Secret ( 3-12 in dirt dashes, 116 large ). Sire was 1 for 2 dancing to this music, paternal grandsire, sire was a poyfect 3 fer 3 doing the same ( 113 big ones ), mommy's daddy was one of two doing the same ( 32G ), and the maternal granddam was 2 for 10 in 1X dirt heats as well ( fast track ). The more we type... #9 PEPPI (AE) overcame some trouble when besting half the field first time out, and given the best of 32 bullet breeze just a baker's dozen days prior to that, the result may have been better with a clean onset. Hoping for a crisp break and a "killer crossover" from today's outside post. #1 SCREEN STAR went for nearly 13X the stud fee at Keeneland a year & a half ago and has been doing okay in the mornings. 

 

Race  3

1.Sunnymeade Dream 

2.Marie's Melody

3.Mariposa Belle

We like to be a bit forgiving of "pre & post layoff lines", and will do just that with the #2 SUNNYMEDE DREAM ( on the AE's in yesterday's finale, so take a peek at the scratches ) in order to find some value. Digging back to the KD outing, what we came up with was a solid showing versus tougher, and @ 26-1 as well. This one goes two turns over firm ground for the first time today, and although having never tried the sod, papa did some fine work going long over the carpet fibers. Would not be surprised to see this one fare well on the dropdown. #4 MARIE'S MELODY has yet to finish out of the superfecta, owns an ability to send or rate a bit, and may continue that upwards trajectory this afternoon. #6 MARIPOSA BELLE takes a substantive drop and adds blinkers here, with the last part being relevant. Why? 'Cause Roger Attfield is 5 for 18 when doing such to his maidens at 24-1 or less ( $11, $7, $46, $9 & $6 ).  OFF TURF: 8-9-12-15(MTO)-10  NOTE: AS OF 11:47, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #9 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  4 

1.Algodonal

2.Feature Creature ( AE )

3.Jost Sayin ( AE )

#1 ALGODONAL has yet to miss a superfecta in ten lifetime starts, so right off the bat, you have to admire this one's grittiness. There's a sunstantial upgrade in the jockey department this afternoon, and we'll give this one a slight edge in a tight heat. #13 FEATURE CREATURE (AE) needs one to declare in order to make it into the body of the race, but should that come to bear, will be bringing along a septet of solid numeros, and a local mark that is better than any other venue. #14 JOST SAYIN (AE) is another on the outside looking in, but got smacked around pretty good in the most recent, but still was able to get the job done vs. what we would consider similar type.  OFF TURF: 2-4-6-12-15(AE)  NOTE: AS OF 11:50, DUE TO TWO LATE SCRATCHES, #'S 4 & 2 WILL BE OUR 2ND AND 3RD CHOICES RESPECTIVELY.

 

Race  5

1.Capeline

2.Mi Tia Regis

3.Personally

After finishing next to last in the debut, #5 CAPELINE was stretched out to two turns on 4/18, and showed some speed before folding up the tent halfway through. We went back and looked up the Tomlinson numbers for "Turf/Route" from that day, and they are precipitously less than that of today's trip. All that being said, we're expecting some improvement today for the returning pilot. As the late, great Billy Mays said, "But wait -- there's more !" Over the last 60 months, 15% shotcaller is a fat 9:4-2-1 when going green to brown with maidens at 30-1 or less ( 3YO & up ), w/ mutuels of $23, $4, $18 & $20. Play of the day. #7 MI TIA REGIS is the only one we'll utilize as a saver here based on the solid showing in her last dirt try here on a glib surface ( @ 21-1 ), & as a matter of fact has hit the board in all three Hallandale heats. #2 PERSONALLY had shown a quick gate move before the initial spin, so we'll permit another shot.  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #10 IMPRESSION GIVEN doesn't make our first draft.

 

Race  6 

1.Stonecastle

2.Call Curt

3.Strong Headed

#2 STONECASTLE ( entered on Wednesday, so look at the changes ) has a "recently decent" troika of figaros, and deserves some respect after a grisly trip last month; slides in from the eleven hole to the two slot today. #3 CALL CURT ( also x-entered on 5/7 ) showed stark improvement from the 1st start to the 2nd, and is once again hiked up the ladder. You can essentially repeat our last analysis for the #8 STRONG HEADED as well.  OFF TURF: 4-2-8-9-11

 

Race  7

1.American Tap

2.Fast Scene

3.Envied

#1 AMERICAN TAP burst through the maiden ranks in a big way at Woodbine back in the fall, improving from a 5th of 7 ( 28 BSF ) debut, to get the candy next time out, posting a fig of 66. While that number may appear to be light here, you have to take into account the maturity progression since then. May work out a nice pocket trip from the inside, as there are a few zippy animals signed on. #3 FAST SCENE hasn't "seen the scene" in more than seven flips of the calendar, but classy gal has been performing well in the A.M.'s for today's comebacker, and will be prominent early on. #9 ENVIED put forth a sneaky good effort in the return and should move forward off of that.  OFF TURF: 5-1-8-9-10

 

Race  8 

1.Chinomado

2.Sarasota Boy

3.Harper Go Lucky

We were unable to eliminate any entrants with our first draft here, so tread lightly. #6 CHINOMADO has only beaten home five in as many calls to the post, but we like the brief foot shown in the return engagement, and is reunited with the "normally 4%" Mejia, who's been performing some "miracles" of late. This one is a long way from chasing Maximum Security -- as he finds himself at his lowest level to date -- but has done his best work here, and we'll nibble. #1 SARASOTA BOY is another taking the plunge in this spot, and note that his best efforts have come when beginning from the innermost two slots. #2 HARPER GO LUCKY goes turf to dirt, 2X to 1X, and got his photo taken the only time he was available for purchase. 

 

Race  9 

1.El Tormenta 

2.Hawkish

3.Highland Sky

#3 EL TORMENTA owns a win & a placing from as many "second off the L/O" tries as he's attempted, has faced some salty critters in his day, and loses the eye cups in this small stakes. The only other time this barn has taken blinkers off a runner ( NOT for the first time ) on the turf, a $7 winnah was the end result. #7 HAWKISH was a dead game and nicely clear runner up in his only turf route off a break, and we just love the 59 & 3 breeze up at Palm Meadows ( with the dogs up ). #10 HIGHLAND SKY is 6:1-1-2 off a hiatus and has done his finest work at this distance of ground ( 6:3-0-2, in comparison to being 20:2-3-3- otherwise ).  OFF TURF: 10-11-12-1-4

 

Race  10

1.Extra Extra

2.Urban Light ( Ire )

3.Surf Shack

#4 EXTRA EXTRA fought the good fight most recently, when duking it out down on the inside to finish a lively runner up when facing similar at a 28-1 offering. The blinkers are taken off this grey gelding, perhaps in an effort to settle him down a bit, as he's still lightly raced, and there's no need for him to become completely one dimensional at this point. #13 URBAN LIGHT (AE) needs a competitor to get the sniffles in order to face the starter, but lost by only a couple in his only "2nd off the L/O" go round, and we're expecting Jaramillo to have this one closer to the pace vs. these. #12 SURF SHACK rounds out the top three.  OFF TURF: 2-5-8-6-14(AE)  NOTE: AS OF 11:53, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #7 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  11

1.Tap It to Win

2.Septemberten

3.Whiskey Sunrise

#3 TAP IT TO WIN is a $200,000 bred animal who was looking the part after his first two starts last year, but then the youngster was ( properly ) spotted in a Graded route down in Lexington, where he acted in a rank manner before finishing in a different zip code. Ridgling was cut back to one turn at CD three weeks later, but looked completely sour, and once again, only bested the chase ambulance. Bay runner has been setting stopwatches ablaze at both Casse's private farm & PmM for the return, and we're expecting a huge confidence building effort. #1 SEPTEMBERTEN has an interesting 10:1-1-6-2 boxscore, with the lone tally in the maiden breaker 57 days back. We like that this one has been given a bit of a freshening after the win, and we see no reason another jazzy effort ain't within reach. #11 WHISKEY SUNRISE essentially went all the way in his first start off nearly a years' hibernation, and lone winner from that affair returned to score, upping his numero 5.3% in the process. 

 

Race  12

1.Peppi the Hunter

2.Trappezoid

3.Areyoutalkintome

#3 PEPPI THE HUNTER crushes. #2 TRAPPEZOID fell short of the hat trick right here 20 days ago, but was a bit wide that day and can be a bit closer w/a tidier journey. #4 AREYOUTALKINTOME has been ITM in 5 of 10 at GO, & 4 of 7 @ the dx., sensible "unders" candidate.

 


Gulfstream      ( Spring ):      32-229     ( $435.70 )   Beatable  Favorites   1-13  ( 7.7% )    Favorites Win %     79-229   ( 34.5% )(As of Saturday morning)

Gulfstream      ( Winter ):        8-76       ( $141.00 )   Beatable Favorites    0-3    ( 0% )       Favorites Win %     23-76     ( 39.1% ) 


Aqueduct Winter  ( Final ):     65-427    ( $615.10 )  Beatable  Favorites  8-18  ( 44.4% )    Favorites Win %:   174-427 ( 40.8% ) 

Graded Stakes ( Current ):       2-12        ( $25.60 )  Beatable Favorites    N/A   (  N/A )      Favorites Win %:     4-12     ( 33.3% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 64-411  ( $581.30 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-56 ( 32.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 139-411 (33.8%)  +/-: -29.2% against a 16.8% takeout  


Poly Tracks2013-16  (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-20 (All Final):2511-12450 ($21,132.80)  Beatable Favorites : 343-1222( 28.1% )Favorite's Win %: 4753-12533 ( 37.9% ) +/-: -15.3%  against a 16.8% takeout


Cumulative Stats      (All Final): 2596-12998 ($21,953.00)  Beatable Favorites : 358-1290( 27.8% )Favorite's Win %: 4915-13120 ( 37.5% ) +/-: -15.4%  against a 16.6% takeout


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