SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Gulfstream Selections & Analysis - 5/10
  
  

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$12 winner, $101 exacta box & a $419 Rolling Late Double on yesterday's card, as well as another successful Beatable Favorite. 


I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O.


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


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Gulfstream - 5/10

 

Race  1

1.La Guatemalteca

2.Fury Song

3.See Below

#8 LA GUATEMALTECA showed very little in the initial turf attempt, but we always give a runner two chances under a particular set of circumstances before writing them off ( which sometimes aids in ferreting big payoffs ), and this one is a half to a 2 for 5 turfer who banked more than 34K, and the sire was 5:2-2-1 on the synthetic, which often translates to the turf nicely. Additionally, the paternal granddam was 3:1-1-0 on firm ground, and this one may appreciate the extra distance. #7 FURY SONG disappointed her backers in the initial turf try, but sire was 8:1-4-0 on the turf & poly, and daddy's mommy did decently over the blades as well. We have two different scenarios for our 3rd selection: Should the #14 FUNNY FEATHER (AE) draw in, then it'll be her...if not, then the #3 SMARTIZAR will do.   OFF TURF: 9-14(AE)-12-10-2

 

Race  2

1.Ultraconfident

2.Aycapote

3.Light Fury

#6 ULTRACONFIDENT hasn't been seen since just after Saint Valentine's Day, but grey chap was a respectable 3rd in a near identical spot prior to that ( Adjusted 45.8 ) and may be closer to the pace with a feather assigned this afternoon. #8 AYCAPOTE may appear to be a bit sour of late, but there are a few decent running lines on the resume', and after breaking from the rail five times ( and the two hole in another one ) from six career dirt tries, this one should appreciate an outside draw. #5 LIGHT FURY had absolute;y no excuse for the recent drop, so is quickly halved in price by Pilotti in an effort to get this one's confidence back. 

 

Race  3

1.Play that Tone

2.Alpilles 

3.My Masterpiece

#10 PLAY THAT TONE split the field in this race 22 days back, but has done her best work when on the outside ( 8:2-2-1 from the eight hole on out, compared to a 19:0-3-2 mark from the seven slot on in ) and may perk up at a price. #9 ALPILLES lit up the tote board when going coast to coast against weaker right here three dozen days ago, and we have no problems including off that effort. #11 MY MASTERPIECE got the job done in his only D to T spin ( with no layoff ), and speedy sort gets in light for the cutback.  OFF TURF: 6-4-9-7-8  NOTE: AS OF 12:12, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #12 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.   NOTE: AS OF 1:39, WE HAVE AMENDED OUR SELECTIONS TO 3-12-2.

 

Race  4 

1.Ninetydaysofwinter

2.Perfect Enough

3.Makinalegacy ( AE )

#10 NINETYDAYSOFWINTER showed little with no palpable excuse in the most recent, but bested half the field at boxcar odds in the penultimate outing, and posted a solid numero right here back in January as well. Gelding drops for the fourth straight time and sheds some poundage also. #2 PERFECT ENOUGH own a placing & a showing in as many sand to sod switches, and has partaken in the triple in six of ten at this distance of ground as well. Sensible inclusion. #14 MAKINALEGACY (AE) needs a couple to get the sniffles in order to enter the starting gate, but gave a solid showing @ 59-1 the only time he was in a "3rd off the L/O" scenario, and it was one of the two times he went from brown to green as well.  OFF TURF: 4-11-6-9-10  NOTE: AS OF 1:41, WE HAVE AMENDED OUR SELECTIONS TO 10-8-5.

 

Race  5

1.Fiamma Mamma

2.Union Lane

3.Kaufy Futures

#9 FIAMMA MAMMA was a dead game and decently clear runner up when facing tougher on this strip a half'a month back, and sheds a boatload of weight for today's 3rd off the shelf battle. Speaking of that, 14% Delgado is a jazzy 8:4-1-1-1 with locally based third off the layoff Gulfstream stock at this level who crashed the board 9-20 days ago ( $16, $9, $10 & $6 ). Looking good. #1 UNION LANE will be the only one we'll utilize as a saver in this spot, given the recent crisp tally & a reduction in weights off that performance. Excluding the pre & post layoff tries, #3 KAUFY FUTURES has been a part of the superfecta in her last eleven calls to the post, and that's good enough reason to chunk underneath.  NOTE: AS OF 1:43, WE HAVE AMENDED OUR SELECTIONS TO 6-4-1.

  

Race  6 

1.Pretty Darling 

2.R U Royalty

3.Smooth as Glass

#1 PRETTY DARLING displayed the briefest of early hoof when debuting two fortnights ago, but drops into the state bred ranks now, and decent pedigree tells us to give her another shot. Mild choice. #4 R U ROYALTY lost by less than four at 31-1 when going from brown to green, and cuts back in dx. here while dropping nine pounds with Trejos picking up the assignment. #7 SMOOTH AS GLASS was up the track first time out, but is a half to C. Zee ( 3 for 18, $439 K ), and as there was a bullet gate breeze before the first start, we'd like to think there's some promise here. 

 

Race  7

1.Christopher

2.Jake Rocks 

3.Sturgeon

#1 CHRISTOPHER ( cross entered yesterday, so check the changes ) has gone 74-79-74 in his three one turn events, and as those were last year, you can feel free to elevate those with natural maturity. Don't worry about today's transition to the turf, as this one is just about as well bred for it as the dirt ( Blame was 3:2-0-1 on the carpet fibers & the paternal granddam lost by a neck in her only grass start ). #5 JAKE ROCKS was a convincing victor when transitioning from the main to the blades last fall, and comes in today off a very sharp effort two weeks in the rear. #11 STURGEON is a snappy 19:6-5-0 at the dx. and switches back to Zayas.  OFF TURF: 10(MTO)-7-1-3-4(MTO)  NOTE: AS OF 1:45, WE HAVE AMENDED OUR SELECTIONS TO 5-1-2.

 

Race  8 

1.Hy Riverside

2.Noon Time Gem

3.Glory of Florida

#1 HY RIVERSIDE has a 4:1-1-1 ledger in 3rd off the bench outings, and eight year old with back class has never been entered this cheaply. Meeeeek selection in a race that's difficult to embrace. #2 NOON TIME GEM is confidently hiked up in class for the 2nd start off the claim, and that's despite the poor showing on April 18th. Colt has done exceptional work at the trip ( 3:2-1-0 ), and should be more aggressively handled with Emisael getting on for the 1st time. #5 GLORY OF FLORIDA hit the board in his lone start when available for purchase & picks up Looie here.   NOTE: AS OF 1:47, WE HAVE AMENDED OUR SELECTIONS TO 1-4-5.

 

Race  9 

1.Running for Riz

2.Whyruawesome

3.Frosted Grace 

#3 RUNNING FOR RIZ showed some quick early foot before settling for third against this type on 4/17, and more often than not, this one'll outrun his mutuel offering. Decent shot to last longer in a compact field devoid of much early zip. #4 WHYRUAWESOME finished directly behind the above in their most recent engagement, but encountered a bit of trouble that day, and gets a bit of improvement in the jockey area here. Warhorse making his 60th career outing is difficult to leave out in this spot. #2 FROSTED GRACE is 3:1-0-1 in 3rd off the shelf scenarios, and has yet to finish out of the money at this dist.; colt is progressing along nicely.  NOTE: AS OF 1:49, WE HAVE AMENDED OUR SELECTIONS TO 1-6-2.

 

Race  10

1.Benefactor

2.Lord Adare

3.Bold Envoy

#9 BENEFACTOR has gone 2-1-1 in his last quintet when entered between 25 & 30K, and if you can see your way clear of the recent troubled/wide sojourn, as well as the stakes try, then what you have is a crisp runner up finish against optional competitors @ the end of January. #7 LORD ADARE has been beset by two breaks in the action of late, but Hess charge has been performing admirably for the comebacker and won the only time he had a "For Sale" sticker attached to his rump. #6 BOLD ENVOY hasn't made the program in a couple'a Derby's, but lightly raced 6YO got his Polaroid taken in his only dirt start after a respite, and intriguing to see Rosario take the call on such a runner for a trainer he hasn't ridden for.  NOTE: AS OF 1:53, WE HAVE AMENDED SELECTIONS TO 9-3-7.



Gulfstream      ( Spring ):      33-241     ( $448.10 )   Beatable  Favorites   1-14  ( 7.1% )    Favorites Win %     83-241   ( 34.4% )(As of Sunday morning)

Gulfstream      ( Winter ):        8-76       ( $141.00 )   Beatable Favorites    0-3    ( 0% )       Favorites Win %     23-76     ( 39.1% ) 


Aqueduct Winter  ( Final ):     65-427    ( $615.10 )  Beatable  Favorites  8-18  ( 44.4% )    Favorites Win %:   174-427 ( 40.8% ) 

Graded Stakes ( Current ):       2-12        ( $25.60 )  Beatable Favorites    N/A   (  N/A )      Favorites Win %:     4-12     ( 33.3% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 64-411  ( $581.30 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-56 ( 32.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 139-411 (33.8%)  +/-: -29.2% against a 16.8% takeout  


Poly Tracks2013-16  (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-20 (All Final):2511-12450 ($21,132.80)  Beatable Favorites : 343-1222( 28.1% )Favorite's Win %: 4753-12533 ( 37.9% ) +/-: -15.3%  against a 16.8% takeout


Cumulative Stats      (All Final): 2596-12998 ($21,953.00)  Beatable Favorites : 358-1290( 27.8% )Favorite's Win %: 4915-13120 ( 37.5% ) +/-: -15.4%  against a 16.6% takeout


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